{"id":2204958,"date":"2024-05-03T08:00:36","date_gmt":"2024-05-02T23:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2204958"},"modified":"2024-05-02T18:36:59","modified_gmt":"2024-05-02T09:36:59","slug":"south-korea-to-experience-stronger-than-expected-economic-growth-in-2024-oecd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/05\/south-korea-to-experience-stronger-than-expected-economic-growth-in-2024-oecd\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea to experience stronger-than-expected economic growth in 2024: OECD"},"content":{"rendered":"
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised its growth forecast for South Korea this year up to 2.6%, increasing it by 0.4% points in its biannual economic outlook report on <\/span>Thursday<\/span><\/a>. This ranks as the fourth-highest expected growth among OECD countries, alongside the U.S. The OECD initially forecasted 2.2% growth for South Korea in February.\u00a0<\/span>This new figure surpasses the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) April prediction of 2.3% and the initial projections of 2.2% by the finance ministry, as well as the Bank of Korea’s (BOK) prediction of 2.1% for this year\u2019s economic growth in Korea. <\/span>The OECD has also revised its projection for South Korea\u2019s economic growth in 2025 to 2.2%, up from the initial 2.1%. <\/span><\/p>\n The revised forecast comes as the OECD also projected that the global economy will likely recover at a stronger pace than initially expected. <\/span>However, the OECD has highlighted several urgent structural reforms that the South Korean government needs to address. These include adapting to an aging population through reforms in fiscal policy, labor, and pensions, recommending better fiscal rules, and attracting more immigrant workers.<\/span><\/p>\n Why It Matters<\/b><\/p>\n The revised projection arrives on the heels of South Korea’s <\/span>unexpectedly<\/span><\/a> robust gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2024. Last week, the Bank of Korea (BOK) reported that GDP grew by 1.3%, marking the first time quarterly growth has exceeded 1% in over two years. This development is likely to be welcomed by the South Korean government, which may revise its own projections in the coming weeks. This update follows the general elections, during which inflation-related criticisms dominated the opposition\u2019s campaigns.<\/span><\/p>\n The OECD’s new forecast not only anticipates a higher rate of economic growth but also projects a slightly lower-than-initially-predicted inflation rate. According to the South Korean finance ministry on <\/span>Thursday<\/span><\/a>, the OECD foresees factors such as a rebound in global demand for chips, which is expected to bolster South Korean exports, a potential decrease in interest rates in the latter half of this year, and slower-than-anticipated inflation \u2014 now forecasted at 2.6% this year, decreasing to 2% next year \u2014 that could help rejuvenate the domestic market.<\/span><\/p>\n However, the OECD’s expectation of a decline in interest rates contrasts with the forecasts of various banks and institutions from the past few weeks. Some had suggested that the <\/span>surprise<\/span><\/a> GDP growth in the first quarter provided the BOK with <\/span>fewer<\/span><\/a> reasons<\/span><\/a> to rapidly reduce interest rates. There are continued concerns about the potential weaknesses in the construction sector and housing market, which could lead to a slowdown in consumer spending. Furthermore, despite some improvements in consumer spending, the weakening job market and high debt costs remain potential risks in expecting a significantly strong consumer recovery.<\/span><\/p>\n