{"id":2204672,"date":"2024-04-12T16:47:49","date_gmt":"2024-04-12T07:47:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2204672"},"modified":"2024-04-15T17:13:34","modified_gmt":"2024-04-15T08:13:34","slug":"south-koreas-historic-opposition-win-sets-the-stage-for-a-political-showdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/04\/south-koreas-historic-opposition-win-sets-the-stage-for-a-political-showdown\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea\u2019s historic opposition win sets the stage for a political showdown"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s 22nd general elections resulted in a historic win for opposition parties, raising concerns about potential political instability and intense scrutiny and investigations into the Yoon Suk-yeol administration.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Democratic Party (DP) and its allies, united in their goal to \u201cpunish\u201d the Yoon administration, fell short of the 200-seat \u201cimpeachment line\u201d but secured enough seats to fast-track legislation and launch investigations into key government figures.<\/span><\/p>\n

The ruling People Power Party (PPP) won 108 seats, while the DP secured 175, the largest victory for an opposition party in South Korea\u2019s democratic history. The DP\u2019s minor ally, the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), led by former justice minister Cho Kuk, won 12 seats.<\/span><\/p>\n

WHAT HAPPENED<\/b><\/p>\n

The combined seats of the DP and RKP, totaling 187, surpass the fast-track legislation threshold. However, the Progressive, New Future and New Reform parties further strengthen that number, bringing it to 192.<\/span><\/p>\n

While that number still falls short of the 200-seat threshold required to amend the Constitution or pursue impeachment proceedings against the president without having to reach out to the ruling party, it is still a significant figure that allows the broader opposition bloc to dominate the legislature.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee Jun-seok, the former PPP leader who rebranded himself as one of Yoon\u2019s most vocal critics, won a district seat under his New Reform Party (NRP) banner \u2014 finally becoming an elected official for the first time in his political career, which has spanned more than a decade.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other hand, the Green Justice Party, which had commanded six seats in the National Assembly, received zero seats this time around, thus leaving the party unrepresented in the legislature for the first time in two decades. The party\u2019s leader \u2014 former presidential candidate Sim Sang-jung \u2014 announced her retirement from politics following the election results.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, two critical variables have emerged: Cho Kuk\u2019s personal fate and the sustainability of the DP-RKP alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cho received a two-year prison sentence in Feb. 2023 for his involvement in forging documents for his children\u2019s higher education admissions, among other charges. If the Supreme Court confirms his conviction, he would be disqualified from serving as a lawmaker.<\/span><\/p>\n

The second is how long the DP-RKP alliance will last. Although Cho has vowed that their two parties would not merge, the two parties share common interests in pursuing investigations into key figures in the Yoon administration.<\/span><\/p>\n

As opposition lawmakers prepare to take office in May, the remainder of Yoon\u2019s presidency will likely be tumultuous, especially following the collective resignations of his top aides, including his chief of staff and the prime minister.<\/span><\/p>\n

Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> has identified five likely scenarios for readers to consider.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\"\"

Former People Power Party interim leader Han Dong-hoon in Goyang City, March 11, 2024 | Image: People Power Party<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

1. SPECIAL PROSECUTION BLITZ<\/strong><\/p>\n

The opposition will likely inaugurate the 22nd National Assembly by pushing for a special counsel to investigate two key administration figures: Han Dong-hoon, the former PPP interim leader who just resigned, and Lee Jong-sup, the former and very brief ambassador to Australia.<\/span><\/p>\n

RKP leader Cho Kuk, a former Seoul National University law professor, has pledged to spearhead the case against Han as his first bill proposal. Cho claims to have already drafted the bill, set for filing in May.<\/span><\/p>\n

The proposed investigation will focus on Han\u2019s alleged involvement in prosecutors\u2019 election interference, his role in aiding Yoon with disciplinary actions against the then-prosecutor general and ghostwriting his daughter\u2019s thesis. This last issue appears to be a retaliatory move mirroring the 2019 investigation into Cho\u2019s own daughter, which Han led.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, DP leader Lee Jae-myung will likely lead the call for investigations into Lee Jong-sup. This case revolves around the death of a marine during flood damage recovery work last year. Lee Jong-sup faces allegations of using his authority to shield senior military officers from accountability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Investigating Lee may also serve as a stepping stone for the opposition to investigate Yoon, who appointed Lee as ambassador and allowed him to leave the country despite ongoing investigations.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean first lady Kim Keon-hee promotes the country’s bid for the 2030 World Expo during a state visit to France, June 20, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

2. FIRST LADY IN TROUBLE<\/b><\/p>\n

First lady Kim Keon-hee faces impending legal troubles. The DP and RKP pledged throughout the campaign to reintroduce a special prosecutor to investigate the many allegations that have been set against her.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cho wasted no time taking action. Just hours after his election, he marched with other RKP members in front of the Supreme Prosecutors\u2019 Office, stating: \u201cWe warn the prosecutors for the last time. Investigate Kim Kun-hee.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Cho cautioned that failure to do so would prompt an immediate push for a special prosecution against the first lady in May, in collaboration with the DP.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon vetoed a special prosecution bill targeting his wife in January. The bill primarily focused on allegations of her involvement in manipulating Deutsche Motors\u2019 stock prices.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the situation escalated after widespread domestic and global attention centered on a luxury Dior purse Kim received from an acquaintance, leading to suspicions of graft.<\/span><\/p>\n

The first lady is also mired in other scandals, including her family \u200b\u200bbenefiting from inflated land prices from changed plans to construct an expressway and improperly bringing a close friend on presidential trips abroad.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Korean Metal Workers\u2019 Union members protest against the Yoon administration\u2019s labor policies, Feb. 16, 2023 | Image: Facebook<\/p><\/div>\n

3. THE REVENGE OF THE VETOED BILLS<\/b><\/p>\n

Yoon has extensively exercised his veto power throughout his presidency, giving him the dubious honor of having used that presidential privilege more than any other South Korean president.<\/span><\/p>\n

He has blocked legislation on various issues, such as the Grain Management and Nursing Act, the Yellow Envelope Law and the Broadcasting Act. Additionally, he prevented the opposition from impeaching his ministers and launching special investigations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The opposition parties will likely prioritize special investigations into Han Dong-hoon, Lee Jong-sup and Kim Keon-hee. Then, they will likely turn their focus toward bills that Yoon had previously vetoed over the past two years.<\/span><\/p>\n

The broad opposition bloc will still not be able to overcome Yoon\u2019s veto power because they do not meet the 200-seat threshold, but it remains to be seen if the president will use his right to veto bills that he deems unacceptable as frequently as he has.<\/span><\/p>\n

If Yoon appoints individuals that the opposition finds agreeable to fill the nearly empty Presidential Office or offers to compromise on some bills, the president might be able to achieve some of his goals. He will increasingly require cooperation from the opposition as he begins his lame-duck presidency.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ultimately, Yoon\u2019s approach will depend on whether he chooses to focus on stable governance or prioritizes his own ambitions and safety, as well as that of his close associates.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

A citizen mourns the victims of the 2022 Itaewon crowd crush disaster, Feb. 7, 2023 | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

4. ITAEWON TRAGEDY REVISITED<\/b><\/p>\n

Choo Mi-ae, a six-term DP lawmaker and former justice minister during the Moon Jae-in administration, will likely become the next Speaker of the National Assembly. Despite the speaker\u2019s traditionally neutral role, Choo has hinted at the possibility of proactively pursuing issues she considers important.<\/span><\/p>\n

Upon her confirmed victory, Choo received a flower bouquet from a family member of a victim of the 2022 Itaewon crowd crush incident. She vowed to prioritize reopening the investigation into the disaster and to re-table the special investigation bill as her main focus upon entering the 22nd National Assembly.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the previous Assembly, the ruling and opposition parties negotiated to postpone the investigation until after the elections, indicating that they viewed the issue as more of a political battle than a social concern.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon ultimately vetoed the bill, with then-Prime Minister Han Duck-soo citing its potentially unconstitutional aspects, such as granting overwhelming power to investigators and the investigation committee not being fairly represented by the two major parties.<\/span><\/p>\n

The DP countered that the initial investigation failed to hold any senior officials accountable, thus justifying the committee\u2019s composition. The bill is likely to resurface before the disaster\u2019s anniversary in October with broad opposition support.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

President Yoon Seok-yeol presided over the 14th Cabinet Meeting of 2024 at the Yongsan Presidential Office, March 26, 2024 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/p><\/div>\n

5. IMPEACHMENT, REDUX?\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

Presidential appointments requiring parliamentary hearings will likely face constant disapproval and subsequent presidential vetoes, mirroring the past two years. The broad opposition bloc, likely excluding the NRP, will collaborate to pass impeachment bills against ministers when controversies arise, as seen with the interior and foreign ministers.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, despite international media attention on the possibility of another presidential impeachment in South Korea over the next three years, such a scenario remains significantly less likely this time around.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even if the bloc manages to persuade a dozen ruling party lawmakers to join them to pursue impeachment proceedings against the president, the Constitutional Court has the final say in determining whether there was a proven act of illegality warranting impeachment consideration.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although Cho has hinted that investigating Yoon\u2019s decision to nominate Lee Jong-sup as ambassador to Australia might trigger a review of potential illegality, persuading the Constitutional Court will likely be a formidable challenge.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, impeachment does not necessarily have to be the end goal. The opposition merely has to raise the specter of impeachment over the next three years to ensure that the president remains under near-constant public scrutiny. This tactic will likely be helpful for opposition leaders for their presidential run in 2027.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Elections 2024<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s 22nd general elections resulted in a historic win for opposition parties, raising concerns about potential political instability and intense scrutiny and investigations into the Yoon Suk-yeol administration. The Democratic Party (DP) and its allies, united in their goal to \u201cpunish\u201d the Yoon administration, fell short of the 200-seat \u201cimpeachment line\u201d but secured enough […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10909,"featured_media":2204683,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[27,34],"class_list":["post-2204672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-domestic-politics","tag-korea-elections-2024"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Korea\u2019s historic opposition win sets the stage for a political showdown - Korea Pro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/04\/south-koreas-historic-opposition-win-sets-the-stage-for-a-political-showdown\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Korea\u2019s historic opposition win sets the stage for a political showdown - Korea Pro\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Korea\u2019s 22nd general elections resulted in a historic win for opposition parties, raising concerns about potential political instability and intense scrutiny and investigations into the Yoon Suk-yeol administration. 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