{"id":2204631,"date":"2024-04-10T14:33:17","date_gmt":"2024-04-10T05:33:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2204631"},"modified":"2024-04-10T16:40:43","modified_gmt":"2024-04-10T07:40:43","slug":"south-korean-partisan-voters-prioritize-foreign-policy-new-study-reveals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/04\/south-korean-partisan-voters-prioritize-foreign-policy-new-study-reveals\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korean partisan voters prioritize foreign policy, new study reveals"},"content":{"rendered":"

A <\/span>new study<\/span><\/a> challenges the conventional wisdom that foreign policy plays a minimal role in South Korean elections. The research found that foreign policy significantly influences the voting decisions of many citizens, particularly those who identify as partisan voters.<\/span><\/p>\n

To understand the importance of foreign policy in South Korean elections, it is essential to first examine the political landscape and the positions of South Korean politicians.<\/span><\/p>\n

POLITICAL ELITE POLARIZATION<\/b><\/p>\n

The 2022 South Korean presidential election highlighted the stark differences in foreign policy positions between the two leading candidates, Yoon Suk-yeol and Lee Jae-myung.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon prioritized <\/span>strengthening<\/span><\/a> South Korea\u2019s alliance with the U.S., while Lee advocated for <\/span>balanced relations<\/span><\/a> with Washington and Beijing. Further, Yoon <\/span>criticized<\/span><\/a> the Moon Jae-in administration\u2019s outreach to North Korea, whereas Lee pledged to continue these policies.<\/span><\/p>\n

These contrasting pledges reflect South Korean political elites\u2019 polarized foreign policy views. These views have significant implications for how each side governs, as evidenced by Yoon\u2019s foreign policy <\/span>closely mirroring<\/span><\/a> his pre-election positions.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, these polarized positions extend beyond the political elite and reflect the preferences of a substantial portion of the South Korean electorate.<\/span><\/p>\n

PARTISAN VOTERS\u2019 PRIORITIES<\/b><\/p>\n

The study surveyed 2,006 South Korean adults and presented participants with hypothetical candidate matchups in either a general or presidential election. Respondents evaluated 10 pairs of candidates, each with different personal attributes and stances on key foreign and domestic policy issues.<\/span><\/p>\n

The data reveals the importance of policy positions in candidate selection. If voters did not care about foreign policy, it would have had little impact on their likelihood of choosing a particular candidate.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the study found that partisan voters, those identified as conservative or progressive or who previously supported either Yoon or Lee in the last presidential election, place significant importance on foreign policy positions. These positions can substantially influence their support for a given candidate.<\/span><\/p>\n

The study found that conservative voters strongly prefer candidates who share Yoon\u2019s foreign policy positions, emphasizing the U.S.-ROK alliance as the centerpiece of the country\u2019s foreign affairs.<\/span><\/p>\n

When a candidate\u2019s profile includes this stance, conservative voters prefer that candidate 56% of the time, demonstrating a significant positive effect on their selection odds. In contrast, progressive voters only choose a candidate with this view 43% of the time, resulting in a 13 percentage point partisan difference.<\/span><\/p>\n

Among all policy positions tested, foreign policy has the most substantial effect on electoral choices for both general election and presidential candidates.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thus, candidates\u2019 professed foreign policies matter, but it is particularly important for the segment of the electorate that consistently favors one side over the other.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung meets with Chinese Ambassador to South Korea Xing Haiming, June 8, 2023 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea via Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

INDEPENDENT VOTERS\u2019 IMPACT<\/b><\/p>\n

A significant portion of South Korea\u2019s electorate, estimated at around a quarter or more (estimates range as low as <\/span>17%<\/span><\/a> in some polls and as high as <\/span>30%<\/span><\/a> in others), does not identify as progressive or conservative partisans. These independent voters may switch between parties and candidates based on various factors, such as their mood, the state of the country and the incumbent.<\/span><\/p>\n

Foreign policy positions appear less motivating for non-partisan voters, which may lead some to argue that foreign policy is not a crucial factor in elections for a substantial portion of the electorate.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, foreign policy matters to the majority of voters, and its importance is such that it could easily swing an election.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the last presidential election, the margin of victory was razor-thin, with less than 0.8 percentage points separating the two candidates. Any policy position that lowers a candidate\u2019s chances of securing partisan votes by an equal or greater margin is arguably significant. Foreign policy undoubtedly meets this criterion.<\/span><\/p>\n

FOREIGN POLICY<\/b><\/p>\n

However, partisan voters do not prioritize all foreign policy issues equally. Many prioritize South Korea\u2019s policies toward North Korea, the U.S. alliance and its approach to Beijing. There are clear reasons why these issues are more significant than others.<\/span><\/p>\n

North Korea poses a critical security threat to South Korea. China has been the country\u2019s principal trade partner for many years, while the U.S. is South Korea\u2019s most important security ally. It would be surprising if politically engaged voters did not consider these issues when making their electoral choices.<\/span><\/p>\n

Notably, the importance of foreign policy extends beyond the concerns of South Korean elected officials and policy elites. The South Korean public also cares about the country\u2019s position in the region and the world.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new study challenges the conventional wisdom that foreign policy plays a minimal role in South Korean elections. The research found that foreign policy significantly influences the voting decisions of many citizens, particularly those who identify as partisan voters. To understand the importance of foreign policy in South Korean elections, it is essential to first […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2204634,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,27,28],"class_list":["post-2204631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-domestic-politics","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Korean partisan voters prioritize foreign policy, new study reveals - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/04\/south-korean-partisan-voters-prioritize-foreign-policy-new-study-reveals\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Korean partisan voters prioritize foreign policy, new study reveals - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A new study challenges the conventional wisdom that foreign policy plays a minimal role in South Korean elections. 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