{"id":2204609,"date":"2024-04-09T16:48:19","date_gmt":"2024-04-09T07:48:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2204609"},"modified":"2024-04-10T14:32:42","modified_gmt":"2024-04-10T05:32:42","slug":"south-koreas-general-elections-marred-by-smear-campaigns-and-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/04\/south-koreas-general-elections-marred-by-smear-campaigns-and-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea\u2019s general elections marred by smear campaigns and uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"

With South Korea\u2019s April 10 general elections less than a day away, polls and different parties forecast the opposition Democratic Party (DP) is likely to win.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, it does not appear that the DP will be able to secure a supermajority as it did in 2020 due to the emergence of former justice minister Cho Kuk\u2019s Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), which has siphoned off a significant number of progressive voters.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the various parties estimating that 50 to 55 swing districts are up for grabs, they have, once again, resorted to intense negative campaign tactics that focus more on tearing down their opponents than presenting policy ideas to resolve pressing national or local issues.<\/span><\/p>\n

TIGHT BATTLEGROUND RACES<\/b><\/p>\n

The ruling People Power Party (PPP) and the DP have been <\/span>neck-and-neck<\/span><\/a> in the <\/span>polls<\/span><\/a> in those 50 to 55 districts, with support levels oscillating within a <\/span>tight<\/span><\/a> margin of three to four percentage points.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

On the one hand, the DP has <\/span>stated<\/span><\/a> that it holds an edge in 110 districts but faces strong competition in 50 others. The best-case scenario for the DP would position it to <\/span>secure<\/span><\/a> between 110 to 160 seats out of the 254 that are up for grabs.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, after taking the proportional representation system into account, the DP\u2019s expected seat tally slightly increases, with the party <\/span>looking<\/span><\/a> to secure an additional 10 to 12 proportional seats through its satellite party. Concurrently, <\/span>pollsters<\/span><\/a> predict the <\/span>RKP<\/span><\/a> will win at least 10 <\/span>proportional<\/span><\/a> seats.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result, some experts have merged the DP and RKP\u2019s expected seat numbers into a single figure \u2014 projecting that this unified opposition front will secure anywhere from 130 to 180 seats in the National Assembly.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, it remains unclear if the two parties will merge going forward, with RKP leader Cho Kuk having <\/span>vowed<\/span><\/a> multiple times that he would not agree to such a union.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the PPP has stated it believes that 55 districts are up for grabs, and it predicts that it will win around 90 to 145 seats. Its satellite party stated it <\/span>expects<\/span><\/a> to win between 17 to 19 proportional seats.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung holds up a sign criticizing ROK first lady Kim Keon-hee (left) and holds up a bundle of spring onions while campaigning in Seoul’s Yangcheon district (right), April 8, 2024 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea, edited by Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

ELECTION STRATEGIES<\/b><\/p>\n

Despite their differences, the two major parties have adopted similar election strategies to rally their supporters by emphasizing a sense of urgency.<\/span><\/p>\n

The DP has <\/span>sought<\/span><\/a> to consolidate its support among centrist voters by campaigning heavily in the Seoul Metropolitan Area and the southeastern PK region (Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang Province), <\/span>warning<\/span><\/a> their supporters that the PPP could potentially capture those seats.<\/span><\/p>\n

Similarly, the PPP has sought to mobilize conservative voters\u2019 anxiety by <\/span>pleading<\/span><\/a> for support to prevent the opposition parties from winning 200 seats. The PPP has repeatedly <\/span>emphasized<\/span><\/a> that if the opposition parties manage to sweep the elections, they would be <\/span>able<\/span><\/a> to amend the Constitution and propose impeaching the president.<\/span><\/p>\n

As for the RKP, while Cho has <\/span>disavowed<\/span><\/a> any <\/span>intention<\/span><\/a> of merging with the DP in the future, it has branded itself as an <\/span>ally<\/span><\/a> that shares the <\/span>goal<\/span><\/a> of \u201cpunishing\u201d the Yoon administration.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, other minor parties have attempted to carve their own niche. For instance, the Green Justice <\/span>Party<\/span><\/a> has branded itself as the only <\/span>genuinely<\/span><\/a> progressive party while the New Reform and New Future parties have <\/span>presented<\/span><\/a> themselves as <\/span>centrist<\/span><\/a> alternatives<\/span><\/a> to voters disenchanted with the two major parties. However, they enjoy <\/span>only<\/span><\/a> marginal<\/span><\/a> support.<\/span><\/p>\n

RULING PARTY WOES<\/b><\/p>\n

President Yoon Suk-yeol and the PPP have experienced gains and setbacks in public approval over recent months. This constant fluctuation occurred in a political environment where many voters <\/span>viewed<\/span><\/a> the general election as a <\/span>midterm<\/span><\/a> referendum<\/span><\/a> on Yoon\u2019s leadership.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon\u2019s approval ratings <\/span>briefly<\/span><\/a> surged above 40% in early March due to his firm stance on increasing the medical school quota by 2,000 to address a looming shortage of medical professionals, despite opposition from striking doctors.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, this support quickly <\/span>waned<\/span><\/a> to<\/span><\/a> the mid-30% <\/span>range<\/span><\/a> as the initial impact of the doctors\u2019 strike <\/span>faded<\/span><\/a> and attention shifted toward other issues, <\/span>such as<\/span><\/a> controversies surrounding the president\u2019s personnel decisions, the country\u2019s overall economic performance and perceptions of increasing tension between the presidential office and the ruling party.<\/span><\/p>\n

A notable incident that resulted in Yoon\u2019s approval rate falling again involved the president\u2019s comment that it was \u201c<\/span>reasonable<\/span><\/a>\u201d for spring onions to be priced at $0.65 (875 won), exacerbating much of the public\u2019s perception of the president being out of touch as citizens continue to grapple with inflationary pressures.<\/span><\/p>\n

The DP <\/span>capitalized<\/span><\/a> on this remark, turning it into a catchy meme against the ruling party and the president. The ruling party did itself no favors <\/span>when<\/span><\/a> one of its <\/span>candidates<\/span><\/a> half-<\/span>jokingly<\/span><\/a> defended<\/span><\/a> Yoon\u2019s remark, stating that the president was referring to the price of a single stalk of spring onion.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further damaging the administration\u2019s image was the <\/span>nomination<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>resignation<\/span><\/a> of Lee Jong-sup as ambassador to Australia amid an abuse of power <\/span>investigation<\/span><\/a> against him, which garnered <\/span>bipartisan<\/span><\/a> criticism.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, a senior presidential secretary\u2019s <\/span>threatening<\/span><\/a> remarks toward journalists continued the party\u2019s downward spiral.<\/span><\/p>\n

During a recent <\/span>speech<\/span><\/a> to address the nation over the ongoing doctors\u2019 strike, Yoon acknowledged his declining popularity. However, he <\/span>emphasized<\/span><\/a> that he was a national leader who had an obligation to carry out unpopular policies if they benefited the national interest, portraying himself as above day-to-day politics.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, this stance only <\/span>reinforced<\/span><\/a> the public\u2019s perception of the president\u2019s <\/span>unilateral<\/span><\/a> leadership style, which even resulted in one PPP candidate publicly <\/span>calling<\/span><\/a> for Yoon to resign from the party.<\/span><\/p>\n

While not all of these incidents are explosive, and some carry more weight than others, they have compounded the ruling party\u2019s challenges.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol speaks with a vegetable vendor at a market in Gyeongnam Province, March 13, 2024 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

SMEAR CAMPAIGNS DOMINATE<\/b><\/p>\n

As Yoon\u2019s approval rating <\/span>continues<\/span><\/a> to <\/span>hover<\/span><\/a> around<\/span><\/a> the mid-30% range and no significant developments have emerged to sway centrist voters toward the PPP, the RKP and DP have <\/span>focused<\/span><\/a> their <\/span>efforts<\/span><\/a> on turning the election into a referendum against the <\/span>president<\/span><\/a>, his <\/span>officials<\/span><\/a> and the <\/span>first<\/span><\/a> lady<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Consequently, the political landscape has become rife with smear campaigns in recent weeks.<\/span><\/p>\n

In late March, the PPP initially sought to highlight the <\/span>youthful<\/span><\/a> and potentially <\/span>centrist<\/span><\/a> appeal of interim chief <\/span>Han Dong-hoon<\/span><\/a>, Yoon\u2019s <\/span>former<\/span><\/a> justice minister and one of his closest aides. However, following some of Han\u2019s <\/span>controversial<\/span><\/a> statements<\/span><\/a> on the campaign trail, the party shifted its focus to critiquing opposition candidates.<\/span><\/p>\n

For example, the PPP attempted to gain support in the capital region by <\/span>spotlighting<\/span><\/a> real estate controversies tied to DP candidates in key districts.<\/span><\/p>\n

Concurrently, a significant portion of the PPP\u2019s campaign centered on advocating for the <\/span>punishment<\/span><\/a> of DP and RKP leaders, Lee Jae-myung and Cho Kuk, labeling them the heads of \u201c<\/span>criminal<\/span><\/a> parties<\/span><\/a>\u201d due to their involvement in corruption scandals.<\/span><\/p>\n

More recently, the PPP criticized <\/span>remarks<\/span><\/a> made by DP candidate Kim Jun-hyeok in 2022, when he claimed the founding president of Ewha Womans University forced students to provide sexual services to U.S. military personnel in the 1940s. In response, some PPP banners referred to the DP as a \u201c<\/span>misogynistic<\/span><\/a>\u201d party.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite these ad hominem tactics, their effectiveness in shifting voter sentiment remains <\/span>questionable<\/span><\/a>. Most recent <\/span>polls<\/span><\/a> showed DP candidate Kim Jun-hyeok maintaining a comfortable lead over his PPP opponent.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, that has not persuaded the various parties to shift their election strategies. In recent weeks, Han Dong-hoon and Cho Kuk have <\/span>compared each other to Adolf Hitler<\/span><\/a>, a PPP candidate <\/span>insinuated<\/span><\/a> that former President Moon Jae-in ought to be \u201ckilled,\u201d and Lee Jae-myung <\/span>accused<\/span><\/a> PPP lawmakers and the president of being the \u201c<\/span>descendants<\/span><\/a>\u201d of the perpetrators of the 1947 <\/span>Jeju<\/span><\/a> civilian massacre.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

A screenshot capture of ruling People Power Party (PPP) interim leader Han Dong-hoon and other PPP candidates with the party’s main logo in a promotional video for the 2024 general elections, March 19, 2024 | Image: People Power Party via Youtube<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

WHO WILL TURN OUT TO VOTE?<\/b><\/p>\n

Regardless of the effectiveness of these negative campaigns at garnering votes, they could still impact turnout on election day.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historically, voter turnout has played a pivotal role in South Korean election outcomes. The DP has typically benefited from high turnout rates, achieving significant victories when participation <\/span>exceeded<\/span><\/a> 60%. Conversely, lower turnouts have generally favored the PPP and its predecessors.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, some experts <\/span>added<\/span><\/a> that an extremely high turnout of over 70% mixed with increased participation by senior citizens could benefit the ruling party.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

An additional variable in this election season is the <\/span>participation<\/span><\/a> of <\/span>unaffiliated<\/span><\/a> voters<\/span><\/a>, especially after the emergence of <\/span>new<\/span><\/a> parties targeting this group.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the DP focused on anti-government sentiment and the PPP capitalized on conservatives\u2019 anxiety over the DP maintaining its supermajority, it remains unclear how unaffiliated voters will behave.<\/span><\/p>\n

Early indicators suggest that overall voter participation is on track to be significantly high. The early voting period from April 4 to 5 saw a record-high <\/span>turnout<\/span><\/a> of 31.28%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Preliminary data paints an advantage for the opposition parties, <\/span>with<\/span><\/a> the highest turnout in the progressive stronghold of South Jeolla Province (41.19%) and the lowest in the conservative stronghold of Daegu (25.6%).<\/span><\/p>\n

Recent trends also indicate that younger voters tend to make their electoral decisions in the <\/span>final<\/span><\/a> week before voting. <\/span>During<\/span><\/a> the last presidential election, one out of four voters and 51% of voters in their 20s made their decision in the final week. Notably, the proportion of unaffiliated voters has been <\/span>gradually<\/span><\/a> increasing<\/span><\/a> in<\/span><\/a> recent<\/span><\/a> years.<\/span><\/p>\n

These <\/span>undecided<\/span><\/a> voters will be decisive in the election outcome. Monitoring their voting <\/span>behavior<\/span><\/a> will be crucial in determining future election outcomes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Culture & Society<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Elections 2024<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With South Korea\u2019s April 10 general elections less than a day away, polls and different parties forecast the opposition Democratic Party (DP) is likely to win. However, it does not appear that the DP will be able to secure a supermajority as it did in 2020 due to the emergence of former justice minister Cho […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10909,"featured_media":2204610,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[25,27,34],"class_list":["post-2204609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-culture-society","tag-domestic-politics","tag-korea-elections-2024"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Korea\u2019s general elections marred by smear campaigns and uncertainty - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/04\/south-koreas-general-elections-marred-by-smear-campaigns-and-uncertainty\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Korea\u2019s general elections marred by smear campaigns and uncertainty - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With South Korea\u2019s April 10 general elections less than a day away, polls and different parties forecast the opposition Democratic Party (DP) is likely to win. 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