{"id":2204589,"date":"2024-04-08T18:18:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-08T09:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2204589"},"modified":"2024-04-09T16:38:13","modified_gmt":"2024-04-09T07:38:13","slug":"sanctions-strain-south-korea-russia-ties-as-seoul-weighs-military-aid-to-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/04\/sanctions-strain-south-korea-russia-ties-as-seoul-weighs-military-aid-to-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Sanctions strain South Korea-Russia ties as Seoul weighs military aid to Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"

Russia\u2019s foreign ministry <\/span>summoned<\/span><\/a> Lee Do-hoon, the South Korean ambassador to Moscow, on April 5 to protest Seoul\u2019s <\/span>unilateral sanctions<\/span><\/a> against Russian entities and individuals. The sanctions, announced on April 2, target Russian vessels, institutions and individuals for violating U.N. Security Council resolutions by providing military and financial assistance to North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

As tensions between Moscow and Seoul <\/span>escalate<\/span><\/a>, South Korea faces mounting pressure to provide military assistance to Ukraine \u2014 a move that could be announced after the country\u2019s general elections on April 10.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, such a decision carries significant risks, including the further deterioration of ties with Russia, which has already denounced the sanctions as an \u201cunfriendly measure\u201d and urged South Korea to abandon what it described as \u201cunproductive and coercive measures that escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

ROK Minister of Foreign Affairs Cho Tae-yul holds talks with Dr. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chair of the Defense Committee of the German Bundestag, March 26, 2024 | Image: ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

SEOUL\u2019S UKRAINE DILEMMA<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea has come under increasing pressure to provide military assistance to Ukraine amid Russia\u2019s ongoing invasion of its neighbor.<\/span><\/p>\n

In March, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the chair of the German parliament\u2019s defense committee, visited South Korea to meet with the country\u2019s <\/span>foreign<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>defense<\/span><\/a> ministers. During their meetings, they discussed Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, among other topics.<\/span><\/p>\n

Before those meetings, Ukrainian Ambassador to South Korea Dmytro Ponomarenko <\/span>urged<\/span><\/a> South Korea to reassess its stance on supplying lethal weapons to the war-torn country, <\/span>repeating<\/span><\/a> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky\u2019s request from Feb. 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

The pressure on Seoul intensified when South Korean foreign minister Cho Tae-yul participated in NATO\u2019s foreign ministerial meeting in Brussels, where he <\/span>pledged<\/span><\/a> to provide Ukraine with $2.3 billion in aid.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, Cho <\/span>said<\/span><\/a> during a meeting with NATO\u2019s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that North Korea is supplying weapons, including ballistic missiles, to Russia, and in return, Russia is providing North Korea with political, military and economic support, making closer cooperation between NATO member states and South Korea vital.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the exact extent and nature of the cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang remain unclear, it poses a significant concern for South Korea\u2019s national security interests.<\/span>However, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, which has consistently stated its intention to elevate South Korea into a \u201c<\/span>global pivotal state<\/span><\/a>,\u201d has yet to take decisive action that matches its rhetoric.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol holds a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, July 15, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

RUSSIAN ROULETTE<\/b><\/p>\n

Providing lethal military aid to Ukraine comes with significant risks for South Korea. The recent sharp words from Moscow notwithstanding, the <\/span>detention<\/span><\/a> of a South Korean national for alleged espionage in March further highlighted the deteriorating relationship between the two countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s reliance on Russia for <\/span>energy resources<\/span><\/a>, including gas, coal, uranium and wood pellets, leaves it vulnerable to potential export restrictions. Such measures could <\/span>negatively impact<\/span><\/a> the South Korean economy as the country seeks to balance its energy needs with its geopolitical stance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, Russia could <\/span>increase oil shipments<\/span><\/a> to North Korea, potentially strengthening the DPRK regime.<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition to economic and security concerns, Russia, along with China, may also use its aerial military assets to continue <\/span>violating<\/span><\/a> South Korea\u2019s air identification zone, increasing regional tensions and testing Seoul\u2019s resolve.<\/span><\/p>\n

Domestically, President Yoon Suk-yeol will face intense pressure from opposition parties to refrain from supplying lethal arms to Ukraine. South Korea\u2019s <\/span>Foreign Trade Act<\/span><\/a> bans the export of arms except for peaceful purposes and bans the re-export to third-party countries without Seoul\u2019s permission.<\/span><\/p>\n

The two main opposition parties \u2014 the Democratic Party and the Rebuilding Korea Party \u2014 will likely outnumber the ruling People Power Party in the National Assembly after the April 10 general elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the Yoon administration chooses to supply arms directly to Ukraine, it will likely argue that the provision of arms does not violate the law because Ukraine would use the weapons to secure peace.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, South Korea\u2019s opposition parties will fiercely resist such an interpretation of the law, complicating Seoul\u2019s decision-making process.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the Akasaka Palace, May 24, 2022 | Image: Prime Minister\u2019s Office of Japan<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

SHIFTING LANDSCAPE<\/b><\/p>\n

The <\/span>upcoming bilateral summit<\/span><\/a> between U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida could further complicate South Korea\u2019s decision-making process regarding military assistance to Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

As Biden hosts Kishida at the White House on April 10, the two leaders will <\/span>reportedly<\/span><\/a> upgrade the U.S.-Japan alliance, potentially diminishing South Korea\u2019s relative importance to the U.S. in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

The potential upgrading of the U.S.-Japan alliance may prompt South Korea to reconsider its stance on supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine as it looks to demonstrate its commitment to shared values, maintain its relevance and secure its position in Northeast Asia.<\/span><\/p>\n

As South Korea contemplates its decision to supply arms to Ukraine, it must also consider the potential return of <\/span>Donald Trump<\/span><\/a> to the White House in November. During his first term, Trump questioned the value of U.S. troop presence in South Korea and <\/span>pressured the country to pay more<\/span><\/a> for the cost of stationing American forces on its soil.<\/span><\/p>\n

The prospect of a diminished U.S.-ROK alliance under a second Trump administration highlights the need for South Korea to diversify its international partnerships to avoid isolation and maintain its strategic position.<\/span><\/p>\n

This consideration may factor into South Korea\u2019s decision to provide military assistance to Ukraine, as it seeks to strengthen ties with its NATO partners and demonstrate its commitment to shared values and global security.<\/span><\/p>\n

TO CROSS OR NOT CROSS THE RUBICON<\/b><\/p>\n

While the Yoon administration has expressed its desire to elevate South Korea\u2019s global status, it knows the benefits of providing lethal military assistance to Ukraine could come with painful consequences.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the one hand, supplying arms to Ukraine could demonstrate South Korea\u2019s commitment to shared values and strengthen its ties with Western allies and partners. On the other hand, such a move could further deteriorate relations with Russia, leading to economic repercussions, increased military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang and heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ultimately, the likelihood of South Korea providing lethal military aid to Ukraine will depend on its ability to navigate these competing interests and prioritize its long-term strategic objectives.<\/span><\/p>\n

Should Seoul decide to supply arms to Ukraine, it will need to be prepared for the geopolitical implications. Conversely, if South Korea opts to maintain its current stance of non-lethal support, it risks being permanently perceived as a reluctant partner by its Western partners and will face challenges in achieving its <\/span>global ambitions<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Russia\u2019s foreign ministry summoned Lee Do-hoon, the South Korean ambassador to Moscow, on April 5 to protest Seoul\u2019s unilateral sanctions against Russian entities and individuals. The sanctions, announced on April 2, target Russian vessels, institutions and individuals for violating U.N. Security Council resolutions by providing military and financial assistance to North Korea. 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