{"id":2204562,"date":"2024-04-05T09:50:11","date_gmt":"2024-04-05T00:50:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2204562"},"modified":"2024-04-08T16:31:12","modified_gmt":"2024-04-08T07:31:12","slug":"south-korea-japan-china-summit-faces-uphill-battle-amid-regional-tensions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/04\/south-korea-japan-china-summit-faces-uphill-battle-amid-regional-tensions\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea-Japan-China summit faces uphill battle amid regional tensions"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed to\u00a0Korea Pro<\/em> that South Korea, Japan and China are expected to hold a leadership summit. The three leaders will likely use the summit to address, among other topics, supply chain issues and how to promote economic cooperation. However, it risks being overshadowed or derailed by external geopolitical developments, such as an escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait or a weapons test by North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

These potential disruptions could undermine the summit\u2019s effectiveness in achieving its reported economic objectives and may even exacerbate existing regional tensions, leading to further economic instability and security risks.<\/span><\/p>\n

ON HIATUS<\/b><\/p>\n

As the three largest economies in East Asia, the trilateral summit meeting will serve as a platform for the leaders to discuss and coordinate their policies on various regional issues, such as trade, investment and security, while also managing their often testy ties with each other.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the summit has been on hiatus since <\/span>Dec. 2019<\/span><\/a>. One of the primary reasons for this hiatus was the COVID-19 pandemic, which made it difficult for the leaders to meet in person and shifted their priorities toward containing the virus and mitigating its economic impact.<\/span><\/p>\n

The <\/span>deterioration of bilateral relations<\/span><\/a> between South Korea and Japan, stemming from historical disputes and trade tensions, also made it challenging for the three countries to hold a summit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although relations between Seoul and Tokyo have <\/span>improved significantly<\/span><\/a> since 2023, bilateral relations between the ROK and China have <\/span>weakened<\/span><\/a>, with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol having <\/span>aligned<\/span><\/a> the country\u2019s foreign policy with the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

An illustration of a busy port | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

TRADE AGENDA<\/b><\/p>\n

The disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have led to shortages of raw materials, components and finished goods, affecting industries such as electronics, automobiles and healthcare \u2014 sectors that are vital to all three countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

The trilateral summit would present an opportunity for the three countries to discuss and coordinate their efforts to mitigate these disruptions and build more resilient supply chains.<\/span><\/p>\n

One potential area of cooperation is the development of regional supply chain networks that reduce dependence on a single country or source. This could involve diversifying suppliers, establishing regional production hubs and promoting trade facilitation measures.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another area of coordination could be the sharing of information and best practices for managing supply chain risks, such as early warning systems for potential disruptions and contingency plans for alternative sourcing.<\/span><\/p>\n

The summit could also serve to promote economic cooperation among the three countries by allowing them to discuss ways to further liberalize trade, reduce non-tariff barriers and facilitate cross-border investments.<\/span><\/p>\n

One possible initiative that could be discussed at the summit is the acceleration of negotiations for the <\/span>China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Agreement<\/span><\/a> (CJK FTA). The CJK FTA, which has been under negotiation since 2013, would create a more integrated market in the region and boost economic growth.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another area of economic cooperation that could be explored is the promotion of joint projects in third countries, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa. The three countries have complementary strengths in areas such as infrastructure development, technology and finance, and they could collaborate on projects that benefit the host countries and the companies involved.<\/span><\/p>\n

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS<\/b><\/p>\n

The situation in the Taiwan Strait has become increasingly tense in recent years, with China ramping up military and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan, which it considers a breakaway province.<\/span><\/p>\n

The U.S., meanwhile, has strengthened its support for Taiwan, including through arms sales and high-level official visits. With military tensions rising in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China, there are growing risks that there could also be a military confrontation between China and the U.S. over Taiwan.<\/span><\/p>\n

If tensions in the Taiwan Strait were to escalate further, it would have a significant impact on the ROK-Japan-China summit and regional stability. China will view the summit as an opportunity to assert its position on Taiwan and pressure South Korea and Japan to distance themselves from the U.S. on this issue.<\/span><\/p>\n

Conversely, South Korea and Japan would feel compelled to show <\/span>solidarity<\/span><\/a> with the U.S. and express concerns about China\u2019s actions toward Taiwan.<\/span><\/p>\n

With China already having <\/span>criticized<\/span><\/a> South Korea for changing its \u201cprudent and neutral position that it had adhered to for years\u201d after the ROK expressed concern over Chinese actions against Philippine vessels in the South China Sea, such divergent positions over Taiwan would strain the already fragile trust among the three countries and hinder cooperation on other issues.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

The April 2 launch of the new Hwasong-16B IRBM | Image: KCNA (April 3, 2024)<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

Concurrently, North Korea has continued to develop its nuclear and missile capabilities. In recent years, the DPRK has conducted several tests of increasingly sophisticated missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.<\/span><\/p>\n

If North Korea were to conduct a weapons test in the lead-up to or during the summit, it could disrupt the agenda and create divisions among the three countries on how to respond.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, trade tensions between Washington and Beijing continue to escalate. The U.S. has reportedly asked South Korea to <\/span>tighten its export controls<\/span><\/a> on semiconductor technology to China, mirroring the restrictions that Washington implemented in 2022.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This request puts South Korea in a difficult position as it seeks to balance its economic interests with China and its security alliance with the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

If trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to escalate, it could create further complications for the ROK-Japan-China summit. South Korea may face pressure from the U.S. to take a harder line on China while also seeking to maintain a constructive economic relationship with Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Japan, which has its own concerns about China\u2019s economic and military rise, may align more closely with the U.S. position. U.S. President Joe Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House on April 10, and it is widely expected that the two leaders will agree to <\/span>upgrade the U.S.-Japan alliance<\/span><\/a>, which China will see as a threat to its regional ambitions.<\/span><\/p>\n

A disruption of trade and investment flows, particularly between the three countries, could have ripple effects throughout the East Asian economy. For example, if the U.S.-China trade tension leads to further restrictions on technology exports or investment flows, it could hurt the competitiveness of East Asian companies that rely on these technologies and investments.<\/span><\/p>\n

If Seoul decides to take Washington\u2019s side in its trade dispute with Beijing, it could lead to a fragmentation of the East Asian market and a reduction in overall trade and investment flows. South Korea and Japan, as major exporters of semiconductors and other high-tech goods, are particularly vulnerable to these disruptions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, heightened military tensions in the Taiwan Strait pose significant security risks for South Korea, Japan and China, which could strain diplomatic relations and hinder regional cooperation on issues such as trade, investment and public health.<\/span><\/p>\n

DIM PROSPECTS<\/b><\/p>\n

The prospects for a successful ROK-Japan-China summit appear dim. Even if the leaders manage to meet in person, deep-rooted mistrust and divergent strategic interests are likely to prevent any significant breakthroughs in economic cooperation or regional stability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Supply chain resilience and trade promotion will likely take a backseat to the more pressing security concerns, such as the Taiwan Strait situation and North Korea\u2019s nuclear weapons program. China\u2019s increasingly assertive stance and its perceived attempts to drive a wedge between the U.S. and its allies will make it difficult for South Korea and Japan to engage in meaningful dialogue without compromising their own strategic interests.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result, if the summit materializes, it will likely devolve into a perfunctory exercise in diplomacy with little substance or progress to show for it.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed to\u00a0Korea Pro that South Korea, Japan and China are expected to hold a leadership summit. The three leaders will likely use the summit to address, among other topics, supply chain issues and how to promote economic cooperation. However, it risks being overshadowed or derailed by external geopolitical developments, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2204563,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24,26,28],"class_list":["post-2204562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Korea-Japan-China summit faces uphill battle amid regional tensions - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/04\/south-korea-japan-china-summit-faces-uphill-battle-amid-regional-tensions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Korea-Japan-China summit faces uphill battle amid regional tensions - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed to\u00a0Korea Pro that South Korea, Japan and China are expected to hold a leadership summit. 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