{"id":2204441,"date":"2024-03-27T19:00:32","date_gmt":"2024-03-27T10:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2204441"},"modified":"2024-03-27T19:17:13","modified_gmt":"2024-03-27T10:17:13","slug":"south-koreas-general-election-is-poised-to-make-or-break-yoons-agenda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/03\/south-koreas-general-election-is-poised-to-make-or-break-yoons-agenda\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea\u2019s general election is poised to make or break Yoon\u2019s agenda"},"content":{"rendered":"

The April 10 South Korean general election will be a crucial test for President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s administration, as the outcome could determine the fate of his major policy initiatives.<\/span><\/p>\n

The ruling People Power Party (PPP) currently lacks the necessary strength in the National Assembly to push forward Yoon\u2019s reforms related to pensions, labor and education due to the main opposition Democratic Party\u2019s (DP) control of the legislative body.<\/span><\/p>\n

The general election could thus mark a turning point for the Yoon administration if the PPP wins a parliamentary majority, paving the way for implementing his policy. But it could exacerbate political gridlock and turn him into a lame-duck president if the DP retains control.<\/span><\/p>\n

EXTENSION OF THE 2022 PRESIDENTIAL RACE<\/b><\/p>\n

Political observers <\/span>liken<\/span><\/a> the upcoming general election to an extension of the 2022 presidential election. Yoon Suk-yeol narrowly defeated Lee Jae-myung by just <\/span>0.73%<\/span><\/a> of the votes \u2014 the closest margin between two leading presidential candidates in South Korean history.<\/span><\/p>\n

Two years later, the political landscape remains essentially unchanged, with Lee\u2019s assumption of DP leadership resulting in a continued power struggle and overall political gridlock between the two major parties.<\/span><\/p>\n

During the first two years of his five-year term, Yoon <\/span>vetoed nine bills<\/span><\/a> put forward by the opposition bloc and refused to formally meet with Lee, leaving little room for cooperation between the ruling and opposition parties.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the upcoming general election results could pave the way for talks and cooperation between the opposing sides, potentially breaking the current stalemate.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cha Jae-won, a professor at the Catholic University of Pusan, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that while he believes the PPP will likely narrowly defeat the DP in the upcoming election, neither party will secure a supermajority.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe DP\u2019s substantial victory in last year\u2019s Seoul Gangseo District <\/span>by-election<\/span><\/a> indicated the ruling party\u2019s low approval rating,\u201d Cha said. \u201cBut the PPP has been gaining public support following the appointment of former justice minister <\/span>Han Dong-hoon<\/span><\/a> as its interim leader, while the DP has lost support due to <\/span>internal turmoil<\/span><\/a> over election nominations.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Han demonstrated his political independence by confronting the presidential office over how to handle first lady Kim Keon-hee\u2019s acceptance of a <\/span>$2,200 Dior pouch<\/span><\/a> from an acquaintance, helping the PPP rebrand itself as an independent ruling party, Cha said.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, even with a narrow victory, the PPP is unlikely to secure enough power to push its agenda without the DP\u2019s cooperation.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cPolitical dialogue and compromise between the parties will be inevitable, as the <\/span>opposition parties combined<\/span><\/a> are likely to win over 150 out of the 300 National Assembly seats. The ruling party can\u2019t lead alone,\u201d he added.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the PPP gains a majority \u2014 even a marginal one \u2014 and Lee Jae-myung steps down as DP leader, Cha suggested Yoon would be more willing to meet with the new opposition leader to seek help enacting policies, including pension reforms.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, political commentator Park Sang-byeong maintains a different outlook, suggesting that the power struggle between the PPP and the DP could intensify if no supermajority party emerges, with the DP seeking coalitions with smaller opposition parties to stand against the PPP.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThen the PPP will blame the opposition for the stalemate and gridlock. In the meantime, the president could unilaterally push ahead with his policies, which will inevitably incite backlash,\u201d Park told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Yoon Suk-yeol (left) raises his fist in Anyang, Gyeonggi, March 7, 2022; Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung gives a thumbs up in Geoje, South Gyeongsang, March 25, 2024 | Image: People Power Party<\/a> and Democratic Party of Korea<\/a>, edited by Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

PENSION REFORM<\/b><\/p>\n

In the 2022 presidential election, both major parties pledged to reform the country\u2019s pension system, albeit differently.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Lee Jae-myung argued that anyone who has income, regardless of their job, should be able to apply for their pension as early as possible, Yoon Suk-yeol pledged that he would launch a separate committee to establish what he called a \u201cgrand plan.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

However, pension reform is a sensitive topic that could cost the PPP votes \u2014 a risky gamble before the general elections. And especially with the National Assembly firmly under the control of the DP, neither the administration nor the ruling party dared to take any concrete steps to reform the country\u2019s pension system.<\/span><\/p>\n

Experts expect the Yoon administration to change its policy directions after the elections, regardless of the outcome.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pension reform is one of the administration\u2019s most urgent national tasks, owing to the country\u2019s rapidly aging population and low birth rate. Thus, the government \u201cwill be eager to pick up the mantle again if the PPP wins in the election,\u201d Park said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cha of Catholic University told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that the timing will be right to carry out pension reform if the ruling party triumphs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThey will still have three years left until the next presidential election and four years until the next general election,\u201d he said. \u201cThat\u2019s the perfect window of opportunity to tackle this difficult issue.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

If the Yoon administration succeeds in tackling pension reform, it could become its most significant achievement, even if it meets immediate public condemnation, Cha added.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

President Yoon Seok-yeol holds a trilateral summit with U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Nov. 16, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

ANTICIPATED FOREIGN POLICY SHIFTS<\/b><\/p>\n

In a marked departure from his predecessor, Yoon has pursued a pro-Western foreign policy agenda since he entered office. Whereas he has successfully elevated South Korea\u2019s stature among the U.S. and its NATO partners, South Korea\u2019s relations with North Korea have deteriorated sharply over the past two years.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has largely mirrored Yoon\u2019s \u201cpeace through power\u201d narrative and has branded South Korea as the North\u2019s principal enemy, while renouncing peaceful reunification with the South as his regime\u2019s goal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon\u2019s approach has been aided by Biden\u2019s continuation of former President Barack Obama\u2019s strategic patience regarding North Korea. As Biden focuses on other global problems, such as Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, the war between Israel and Hamas and Iranian-backed Houthi rebels terrorizing the Red Sea, there is little appetite in Washington to deal with Kim Jong Un.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, experts believe the Yoon administration may seek to recalibrate its foreign policy, including its North Korea policy, after the elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has repeatedly stated that he would be willing to meet with Kim Jong Un to resolve the issue of Japanese nationals that the DPRK had kidnapped over the years.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, Donald Trump\u2019s potential return to the White House further complicates Yoon\u2019s calculus.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cTrump was known for his unilateral approaches to international diplomacy,\u201d <\/span>Kim Jun-seok, a politics and diplomacy professor at Dongguk University, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>. \u201cTrump will likely consider North Korea one of the unfinished projects from his first term and will seek to meet with Kim again should he defeat Biden in the U.S. presidential election in November.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAll of this could create a different diplomatic environment for South Korea,\u201d <\/span>Kim added<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite Kishida\u2019s best efforts, domestic political concerns might prevent him from meeting with Kim, and Trump might fail in his second presidential bid. However, if things turn out differently, the prospect of a Japanese prime minister and U.S. president meeting with Kim while Pyongyang continues to sideline the South Korean president would put immense pressure on Yoon to change course.<\/span><\/p>\n

The outcome of the upcoming general election thus appears set to determine not only the fate of Yoon\u2019s policy initiatives, but to shape South Korea\u2019s political landscape for years to come.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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