{"id":2204431,"date":"2024-03-26T19:09:18","date_gmt":"2024-03-26T10:09:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2204431"},"modified":"2024-03-27T19:02:46","modified_gmt":"2024-03-27T10:02:46","slug":"how-plans-to-upgrade-us-japan-defense-pact-complicate-seouls-strategic-calculus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/03\/how-plans-to-upgrade-us-japan-defense-pact-complicate-seouls-strategic-calculus\/","title":{"rendered":"How plans to upgrade US-Japan defense pact complicate Seoul\u2019s strategic calculus"},"content":{"rendered":"

U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are set to hold a <\/span>summit<\/span><\/a> in Washington on April 10, with <\/span>reports<\/span><\/a> indicating that the two sides will announce plans to upgrade their security alliance by revamping the U.S. military command and expanding exercises in an effort to contain China.<\/span><\/p>\n

The move is a positive sign for South Korea insofar as it demonstrates America\u2019s continued commitment to East Asia, but it also poses direct risks, potentially diminishing the ROK relative to Japan in Washington\u2019s purview.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Seoul could respond by doubling down on trilateral cooperation to avoid being sidelined, this would draw South Korea further into the U.S. competition with China and Russia, highlighting the development\u2019s potential to reshape regional power dynamics.<\/span><\/p>\n

SOUTH KOREA\u2019S BALANCING ACT<\/b><\/p>\n

Historically, the U.S.-ROK alliance has been a cornerstone of South Korea\u2019s security, while Seoul\u2019s relations with Tokyo have been marred by colonial-era grievances and ongoing territorial disputes.<\/span><\/p>\n

In recent years, South Korea has made strides in <\/span>improving relations<\/span><\/a> with Japan, including by bolstering trailateral military cooperation involving the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

But now Washington and Tokyo\u2019s reported plans to enhance their defense treaty risks elevating Japan within America\u2019s strategic calculus, diminishing South Korea\u2019s perceived value as a result.<\/span><\/p>\n

The implications of this could be even more severe if there is a major change in U.S. leadership: The reelection of Donald Trump, for instance, could result in the leader known for his <\/span>unilateral approach<\/span><\/a> to diplomacy and defense sidelining South Korea in <\/span>nuclear arms control<\/span><\/a> negotiations with North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Yoon administration has not publicly commented on the upcoming U.S. election and a potential Trump return, but it will likely harbor concerns over the deepening U.S.-Japan ties. To counteract perceptions of reduced importance, South Korea will likely further increase engagement with the U.S. and participation in <\/span>trilateral military exercises<\/span><\/a> with the U.S. and Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, this strategy comes with financial and political risks.<\/span><\/p>\n

ROK media <\/span>reported<\/span><\/a> in 2020 that approximately $11 million (13.4 billion won) from South Korea\u2019s contribution to shared defense costs with the U.S. went toward equipment supporting U.S. Forces Japan. This expenditure contradicted the <\/span>Special Measures Agreement<\/span><\/a> that mandates such funds solely benefit U.S. Forces Korea.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The misallocation sparked debate about the transparency and accountability of defense cost-sharing arrangements between the U.S. and South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further misuse of defense funds for purposes outside the agreed parameters, particularly if Trump returns to office and demands Seoul <\/span>increase its financial contribution<\/span><\/a> to stationing U.S. troops, could severely impact South Korea\u2019s willingness to participate in trilateral initiatives, and in turn, undermine its national defense strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Two American F-16s, an American B-52H, two South Korean F-15Ks and two 2 Japanese F-2s conduct their first joint air exercise in the overlapping Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) of South Korea and Japan, south of the Korean Peninsula, Oct. 22, 2023 | Image: United States Air Force<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

REGIONAL POWER DYNAMICS<\/b><\/p>\n

The enhancement of the U.S.-Japan security alliance carries significant repercussions for regional stability, particularly South Korea\u2019s ties with China and Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n

China will interpret the move as an attempt to contain its rise and limit its ability to project power, especially in the context of ongoing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Similarly, Russia will view the efforts to strengthen the alliance as a threat to its strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific, potentially prompting it to bolster its own military cooperation with China and North Korea as a countermeasure.<\/span><\/p>\n

Recent tensions between the ROK and China over the Yoon administration\u2019s remarks about the South China Sea underscore the complex regional dynamics at play. Beijing <\/span>criticized<\/span><\/a> Seoul on March 12 for changing its \u201cprudent and neutral position that it had adhered to for years\u201d after South Korea expressed concern over Chinese actions against Philippine vessels in the disputed waters.<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s criticism of South Korea highlights the potential for the U.S.-Japan alliance upgrade to further strain relations between Seoul and Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the U.S.-Japan alliance upgrade compels South Korea to increase its role in trilateral military cooperation to potentially avoid being sidelined, Seoul\u2019s ties with Beijing and Moscow will likely continue to deteriorate. Chinese and Russian military planes have already <\/span>violated<\/span><\/a> South Korea\u2019s air defense identification zone \u2014 KADIZ \u2014 numerous times, and such military maneuvers will likely intensify.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol meets with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Seoul, May 7, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

NAVIGATING HISTORICAL SENSITIVITIES<\/b><\/p>\n

Despite recent progress in improving ties with Japan, grievances stemming from Japan\u2019s colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula from 1910 to 1945 remain. The prospect of Seoul enhancing trilateral military cooperation with Washington and Tokyo, thereby ensuring its strategic relevance, hinges on both nations addressing these long-standing issues.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historical disputes, such as the treatment of forced laborers and \u201ccomfort women\u201d during World War II, pose significant obstacles to enhanced trilateral military cooperation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Notably, a South Korean Supreme Court\u2019s <\/span>December ruling<\/span><\/a> that ordered Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Nippon Steel, two Japanese companies, to compensate Korean forced wartime laborers sparked <\/span>immediate protest<\/span><\/a> from Tokyo, citing a breach of the 1965 treaty that normalized diplomatic ties.<\/span><\/p>\n

Territorial disputes over the <\/span>Dokdo islands<\/span><\/a> further complicate matters. South Korea\u2019s latest <\/span>objections<\/span><\/a> to Japanese history textbooks claiming sovereignty over Dokdo and minimizing wartime atrocities underscore that the issue remains a source of tensions between the two nations.<\/span><\/p>\n

While diplomatic ties will likely remain cordial during the Yoon administration, South Korea\u2019s main opposition Democratic Party could take a harder stance on historical issues with Japan if it retakes the presidency in 2027, potentially jeopardizing trilateral cooperation.<\/span><\/p>\n

The DP has accused the Yoon administration of pursuing a <\/span>\u201csubservient\u201d policy<\/span><\/a> toward Japan for not demanding that Japan compensate former wartime laborers and for <\/span>not protesting<\/span><\/a> Tokyo\u2019s decision to release treated contaminated water from its Fukushima nuclear power plant into the sea.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the Yoon administration attempts to mitigate the impact of a strengthened U.S.-Japan alliance by participating in more trilateral military exercises, it risks intensifying domestic political opposition, particularly if China reacts strongly.<\/span><\/p>\n

DP leader Lee Jae-myung <\/span>questioned<\/span><\/a> the Yoon administration\u2019s China policy last week, asking \u201cWhy are we provoking China?\u201d He suggested that the president\u2019s remarks about Taiwan and the South China Sea have fed anti-Korean sentiments among Chinese consumers, which has had tangible effects on South Korean businesses.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even though South Korean voters have expressed negative sentiments toward China in recent years, sustained Chinese pushback against South Korean businesses in response to Seoul\u2019s defense strategy, such as travel boycotts, could undermine Yoon\u2019s foreign policy initiatives.<\/span><\/p>\n

This dynamic underscores the challenges that the South Korean government faces in navigating domestic political pressures and the strategic imperative of strengthening trilateral cooperation with the U.S. and Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the U.S.-Japan alliance upgrade will not affect South Korea\u2019s upcoming general elections, it could come into play in the 2027 presidential election.<\/span><\/p>\n

THE TASK AHEAD<\/b><\/p>\n

The plans to strengthen the U.S.-Japan security alliance do present opportunities for the ROK.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For instance, conducting more frequent and sophisticated military exercises with the U.S. and Japan could improve South Korea\u2019s ability to coordinate and respond to regional threats.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The <\/span>real-time data-sharing system<\/span><\/a> for North Korean missile warnings, initiated by Seoul and Tokyo in Dec. 2023, serves as a compelling case study for the benefits of trilateral military cooperation.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the potential for blowback from China, Russia and the South Korean public presents immediate challenges to Seoul.<\/span><\/p>\n

To capitalize on opportunities and mitigate risks, ROK policymakers will likely prioritize regular dialogue with all parties, but South Korea faces an uphill battle in making the case that trilateral military cooperation is not a threat to its neighbors nor a capitulation to Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are set to hold a summit in Washington on April 10, with reports indicating that the two sides will announce plans to upgrade their security alliance by revamping the U.S. military command and expanding exercises in an effort to contain China. The move is a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2204432,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,28],"class_list":["post-2204431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nHow plans to upgrade US-Japan defense pact complicate Seoul\u2019s strategic calculus - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/03\/how-plans-to-upgrade-us-japan-defense-pact-complicate-seouls-strategic-calculus\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How plans to upgrade US-Japan defense pact complicate Seoul\u2019s strategic calculus - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are set to hold a summit in Washington on April 10, with reports indicating that the two sides will announce plans to upgrade their security alliance by revamping the U.S. military command and expanding exercises in an effort to contain China. 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