{"id":2203960,"date":"2024-02-26T19:44:23","date_gmt":"2024-02-26T10:44:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2203960"},"modified":"2024-03-01T15:07:54","modified_gmt":"2024-03-01T06:07:54","slug":"a-tale-of-two-polls-reading-between-the-lines-of-yoons-clashing-approval-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/02\/a-tale-of-two-polls-reading-between-the-lines-of-yoons-clashing-approval-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"A tale of two polls: Reading between the lines of Yoon\u2019s clashing approval rates"},"content":{"rendered":"

Recent polls offer conflicting views on South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s popularity, with <\/span>Realmeter<\/span><\/a> placing his approval at 42%, while <\/span>Gallup Korea<\/span><\/a> reveals a lower approval rating of 34% and a disapproval rating of 58%.<\/span><\/p>\n

The contrasting results reflect methodological differences and muddy the political picture ahead of the election, underscoring uncertainty for the Yoon administration while suggesting the race is still anyone\u2019s to win.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, reading between the lines of the polls reveals that, despite the significant differences, approval for Yoon is on the rise as a result of his responses to challenges like housing prices and the doctors\u2019 strike, and the divided opposition will be hard-pressed to reverse this trend with less two months until election day.<\/span><\/p>\n

DUELING POLLS<\/b><\/p>\n

The discrepancy in Yoon\u2019s approval ratings underscores a sharp difference in <\/span>polling methodology<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Realmeter\u2019s use of an automated response system (ARS) tends to skew results in favor of conservative figures, reflected in Yoon\u2019s notably higher approval rating of 42%. In contrast, Gallup Korea\u2019s approach uses computer-assisted telephone interviews, producing a result suggesting much less favorable public sentiment toward Yoon.<\/span><\/p>\n

Realmeter\u2019s poll likely leans toward Yoon because the demographic that responds to ARS polls might inherently skew older or more conservative due to technological familiarity and accessibility issues. Younger or more liberal individuals might be less likely to engage with automated systems or prefer more interactive communication forms, such as live interviews or online surveys.<\/span><\/p>\n

Regardless of the contrasting methodologies, both polls show that Yoon\u2019s approval rating has <\/span>inched upward<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Realmeter attributes Yoon\u2019s recent uptick to a series of policy initiatives aimed at addressing long-standing regional development and health care challenges. Among these, <\/span>easing greenbelt regulations<\/span><\/a> stands out as a key move.<\/span><\/p>\n

By easing restrictions on development within these protected areas, Yoon aims to stimulate economic growth and address housing shortages. This policy resonates with many seeking solutions to urban congestion and the <\/span>high cost of living<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Yoon administration has also garnered attention for supporting nuclear research and development, signaling a strategic pivot toward sustainable energy and technological innovation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon\u2019s decision to ease greenbelt regulations aligns with his <\/span>expressed<\/span><\/a> intention to fast-track the expansion of tax credits for investments in high-tech industry facilities to establish industrial complexes across the country\u2019s provinces.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another significant factor that appears to be contributing to Yoon\u2019s improved public standing is his hardline stance toward the country\u2019s medical community.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although thousands of trainee and resident doctors have <\/span>walked off their jobs<\/span><\/a> in response to the government\u2019s plan to increase admission quotas for medical schools by 2,000 students starting next year, the presidential office has <\/span>dismissed<\/span><\/a> the possibility of lowering its planned quota.<\/span><\/p>\n

Reminiscent of the government’s tactics in 2022 against the country\u2019s striking <\/span>cement truck drivers<\/span><\/a>, the health ministry has warned that trainee doctors who refuse to return to work by Thursday could have their licenses revoked starting next month.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although the government\u2019s measures continue to face significant resistance from large portions of South Korea\u2019s medical community, a Gallup Korea poll found that <\/span>76%<\/span><\/a> of respondents favor the government\u2019s plan to boost medical school admissions, seen as a necessary step in bolstering the nation\u2019s health care system.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even though Yoon\u2019s approval rate has remained consistently low throughout his presidency, recent trends indicate that the general public sentiment toward his initiatives is cautiously optimistic.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean doctors protest against the government’s plan to expand medical school quotas starting in 2025, Feb. 25, 2024 | Image: Korean Medical Association<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

OPPOSITION IN TURMOIL<\/b><\/p>\n

Currently, the ruling People Power Party (PPP) enjoys a slight edge in approval ratings at 37%, reflecting approval for Yoon\u2019s recent policy initiatives. The main opposition Democratic Party (DP) trails closely behind at 35%, grappling with the fallout from a series of political scandals, most notably those surrounding its leader, <\/span>Lee Jae-myung<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

These controversies have undoubtedly influenced public perception, casting a shadow over the party\u2019s credibility and leadership stability.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the realm of <\/span>presidential suitability<\/span><\/a>, public opinion polls reveal a telling preference for Han Dong-hoon, the PPP\u2019s interim leader and former justice minister, who holds a favorable rating of 47% compared to Lee Jae-myung\u2019s 40%.<\/span><\/p>\n

This disparity not only underscores the impact of Lee\u2019s legal troubles on voter confidence but also suggests a broader apprehension toward the DP\u2019s current direction, especially in light of recent internal criticisms.<\/span><\/p>\n

Senior DP figures, including former Prime Minister <\/span>Kim Boo-kyum<\/span><\/a> and previous National Assembly speakers, have openly criticized the DP leadership\u2019s seemingly punitive measures against lawmakers who voted to <\/span>approve<\/span><\/a> a motion granting permission for Lee\u2019s potential arrest in Sept. 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

A week ago, National Assembly Deputy Speaker Kim Young-joo, a four-term lawmaker, announced during a news conference that she would leave the DP after the party notified her that she ranked within the bottom 20% in terms of parliamentary activities.<\/span><\/p>\n

Under the DP\u2019s regulations, the election committee is empowered to evaluate the legislative performance of its lawmakers. The rules stipulate that the lowest-performing 10% of lawmakers will see a 30% deduction from their primary votes. Similarly, those ranked in the next tier, from the 10th to the 20th percentile, will face a 20% reduction in their primary votes.<\/span><\/p>\n

As the DP continues to be engulfed in intra-party conflicts, South Korean voters might be turning toward the PPP, which appears more stable under Yoon and Han\u2019s dual leadership.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung (center) and other party lawmakers offer Lunar New Year greetings to members of the public, Feb. 8, 2024 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

TOMORROW IS ANOTHER DAY<\/b><\/p>\n

As South Korea approaches its general elections, polling data suggests a potentially favorable outcome for Yoon and the PPP, with internal projections within the DP <\/span>reportedly indicating<\/span><\/a> that it might lose seats in Seoul.<\/span><\/p>\n

This anticipated shift could further solidify Yoon\u2019s position, providing a strengthened mandate to advance his administration\u2019s domestic and foreign policy agendas. Such an outcome may embolden Yoon\u2019s government to pursue its initiatives more aggressively, including those aimed at economic reform, regional development and international diplomacy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Such an outcome would exacerbate existing tensions within the DP, which would impact its effectiveness as the main opposition.<\/span><\/p>\n

Amid this landscape, <\/span>Lee Nak-yon<\/span><\/a> has emerged as a pivotal figure. His potential challenge to Lee Jae-myung\u2019s leadership of the DP post-election carries profound implications for the party\u2019s cohesion and strategic direction. A successful bid by Lee Nak-yon could reinvigorate the DP, attracting moderate and centrist voters disillusioned with the current leadership.<\/span><\/p>\n

Such a shift could reshape the DP\u2019s internal dynamics and reposition it for future electoral contests, setting the stage for a revitalized opposition capable of challenging the PPP\u2019s legislative and policy dominance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Elections 2024<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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