{"id":2203943,"date":"2024-02-23T17:28:02","date_gmt":"2024-02-23T08:28:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2203943"},"modified":"2024-03-01T15:06:56","modified_gmt":"2024-03-01T06:06:56","slug":"centrist-dreams-falter-as-south-koreas-big-tent-party-collapses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/02\/centrist-dreams-falter-as-south-koreas-big-tent-party-collapses\/","title":{"rendered":"Election Watch: Centrist dreams falter as South Korea\u2019s big tent party collapses"},"content":{"rendered":"

Editor\u2019s note: Korea Pro\u2019s regular \u2018Election Watch\u2019 <\/span><\/i>series<\/span><\/i><\/a> covers key political developments in South Korea leading to the April 10 General Elections.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

The abrupt collapse of South Korea\u2019s New Reform Party (NRP) \u2014 advertised as a centrist alternative to the country\u2019s two dominant political parties \u2014 just 11 days after its formation has highlighted the difficulties of political coalition-building, threatening to alienate the centrist voters who could decide the election.<\/span><\/p>\n

The NRP was co-led by former prime minister and Democratic Party (DP) leader Lee Nak-yon and former People Power Party (PPP) leader Lee Jun-seok.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But Lee Nak-yon has announced he will return to the New Futures Party (NFP) that he and other DP defectors previously started after leaving the DP, citing disputes with Lee Jun-seok about party control. Now only Lee Jun-seok and his small group of loyalists remain in the NRP.<\/span><\/p>\n

Experts believe this shift may redirect progressive voters toward Lee Nak-yon, given their reservations about Lee Jun-seok\u2019s positions and the DP under Lee Jae-myung\u2019s leadership.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe most important thing to watch out for after Lee Jun-seok and Lee Nak-yon\u2019s breakup is whether the anti-Lee Jae-myung factions within the DP will collectively leave the party to join Lee Nak-yon\u2019s,\u201d Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe DP defectors wouldn\u2019t have joined the NRP as long as Lee Jun-seok was co-chair. But now that the two Lees have divorced, it will make it much easier for other DP lawmakers dissatisfied with Lee Jae-myung\u2019s leadership to actually leave and join Lee Nak-yon\u2019s party.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

IRRECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES<\/b><\/p>\n

Lee Nak-yon and Lee Jun-seok initially presented their unexpected alliance as a bridge between divergent political ideologies, positioning it as a centrist counter to the perceived shortcomings of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration.<\/span><\/p>\n

Their goal was to establish a \u201cbig tent\u201d party, a distinct alternative to the established PPP and DP, criticizing both for appeasing the president or insisting on defending a scandal-plagued opposition leader, respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n

Experts<\/span><\/a> initially told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that the NRP\u2019s strength was its diverse mix of politicians, aiming to create a political entity focused on pragmatic policy-making rather than internal politics or personal attacks.<\/span><\/p>\n

This strategy seemed to resonate with voters initially, as indicated by early polls showing a significant interest in the new party, with support levels <\/span>reaching<\/span><\/a> between 5 to 6% and up to 9% for proportional representation seats \u2014 figures notable for a newly formed minor party.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, this alliance has now fallen apart due to disputes over control and resistance to compromise on ideological and policy grounds.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cho Jin-man, a professor of political science at Duksung Women\u2019s University, attributed the NRP\u2019s dissolution to the co-leaders\u2019 failure to establish a unified political identity.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cPresenting a big-tent coalition party to voters is not as simple as convenience stores offering a \u2018buy one get one free\u2019 deal. Such a party needs a coherent political identity, which they failed to provide,\u201d Cho said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok campaigns at Cheonggye Square | Image: People Power Party<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

LEE JUN-SEOK\u2019S MISCALCULATION<\/b><\/p>\n

Amid the fallout from the NRP\u2019s dissolution, Lee Jun-seok, the former PPP leader, stands to face more significant losses compared to Lee Nak-yon. Acknowledging his own uncertain political future, Lee Jun-seok has publicly expressed his hope for Lee Nak-yon\u2019s return.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cLee Jun-seok gains nothing from this breakup, unlike Lee Nak-yon. And it appears he knows it too,\u201d said Shin from Myongji University.<\/span><\/p>\n

Conversely, Lee Nak-yon has been able to attract a wider support base, with many former DP supporters shifting allegiance to his new party. In addressing the split, Lee Nak-yon projected confidence in forming a \u201ctrue Democratic Party,\u201d appealing to those disenchanted with the current state of the DP.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rhee Jong-hoon, a senior consultant for Politics & Business Consulting, noted that while the split might temporarily tarnish Lee Nak-yon\u2019s reputation due to his previous commitments to fostering young political talents, he remains focused on his future presidential aspirations in the long term.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cLee Nak-yon\u2019s ultimate goal was pretty clear from the moment he left DP: the next presidential election. From his perspective, leaving was necessary as his opportunities within the DP were limited under Lee Jae-myung\u2019s leadership,\u201d Rhee explained, indicating a plan to build a supportive faction outside the DP in anticipation of a future leadership role within the party.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon greets supporters in North Jeolla Province, Sept. 26, 2021 | Image: Lee Nak-yeon via Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

FAZED OPPOSITION<\/b><\/p>\n

Lee Nak-yon now has a new goal: courting more DP defectors. The DP has recently witnessed a wave of departures and rumors of more lawmakers considering leaving the party, driven by dissatisfaction with leadership decisions regarding election candidate nominations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Among those who have exited are National Assembly Deputy Speaker and four-term lawmaker Kim Young-joo. Other DP lawmakers, including Park Yong-jin, Yoon Young-chan and Song Kap-seok, have been deemed \u201cunderperformers\u201d by the party\u2019s leadership and face potential penalties in primary vote allocations, potentially driving further infighting.<\/span><\/p>\n

This situation is underscored by a <\/span>National Assembly vote<\/span><\/a> last year that granted permission for the potential arrest of Lee Jae-myung on bribery charges. At least 31 DP lawmakers, reportedly many allied with figures like Lee Nak-yon or former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun, endorsed the motion, indicating deep-seated rifts within the party.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the past week, senior DP figures, including former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum and previous National Assembly speakers, have openly criticized the DP leadership\u2019s seemingly punitive measures against lawmakers who voted against Lee Jae-myung, highlighting the potential for further defections to Lee Nak-yon\u2019s NFP.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the disintegration of the merger and the fading allure of a third-party alternative might push centrist voters toward the PPP, said Cho from Duksung Women\u2019s University.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung (middle) delivers remarks at the central party headquarters in Yeouido, Feb. 23, 2024 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

SNATCHING DEFEAT FROM THE JAWS OF VICTORY<\/b><\/p>\n

The consensus among experts that the DP would comfortably win the April 2024 elections has eroded despite the Yoon administration\u2019s numerous unforced errors, such as its mismanagement of the Itaewon crowd crush disaster and the president\u2019s continued defense of the first lady despite the many controversies she faces.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cApril 2024 was poised to be an easy win for the DP. They had an absolute advantage on a silver platter. But the party squandered its chances,\u201d Cho said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIn past midterm elections when the conservatives were in power, the progressives won in Seoul, barring the most conservative Gangnam district, but it seems that\u2019s not going to be the case this time,\u201d Cho predicted.<\/span><\/p>\n

This observation suggests a changing dynamic in voter behavior, with centrists, particularly those disillusioned with the efforts to create a broad coalition who do not align with Lee Nak-yon, emerging as critical swing voters.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rhee from Politics & Business Consulting said there could be a decline in voter participation, stating that many are likely to abstain from voting due to ongoing rifts across the political spectrum. This contrasts with previous trends where undecided voters actively participated in elections despite reservations about the candidates.<\/span><\/p>\n

Shin also noted an increasing number of \u201cpolitical nihilists\u201d among the electorate who are indifferent to the electoral process and might choose not to vote.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, for those who decide to vote, \u201cthe deciding factor will be which of the two major parties seems more responsible and better managed, with less internal strife,\u201d Shin said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cCurrently, the PPP appears more capable of meeting these criteria.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Joon Ha Park contributed reporting to this article. Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Elections 2024<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Editor\u2019s note: Korea Pro\u2019s regular \u2018Election Watch\u2019 series covers key political developments in South Korea leading to the April 10 General Elections. The abrupt collapse of South Korea\u2019s New Reform Party (NRP) \u2014 advertised as a centrist alternative to the country\u2019s two dominant political parties \u2014 just 11 days after its formation has highlighted the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10781,"featured_media":2203944,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[27,34],"class_list":["post-2203943","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-domestic-politics","tag-korea-elections-2024"],"yoast_head":"\nElection Watch: Centrist dreams falter as South Korea\u2019s big tent party collapses - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/02\/centrist-dreams-falter-as-south-koreas-big-tent-party-collapses\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Election Watch: Centrist dreams falter as South Korea\u2019s big tent party collapses - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Editor\u2019s note: Korea Pro\u2019s regular \u2018Election Watch\u2019 series covers key political developments in South Korea leading to the April 10 General Elections. 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