{"id":2203731,"date":"2024-02-05T19:02:35","date_gmt":"2024-02-05T10:02:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2203731"},"modified":"2024-02-06T17:39:50","modified_gmt":"2024-02-06T08:39:50","slug":"fate-of-fragile-south-korea-japan-detente-depends-on-rok-political-shifts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/02\/fate-of-fragile-south-korea-japan-detente-depends-on-rok-political-shifts\/","title":{"rendered":"Fate of fragile South Korea-Japan detente depends on ROK political shifts"},"content":{"rendered":"

The <\/span>improvement in relations<\/span><\/a> between South Korea and Japan over the past year signifies a notable shift from the strained ties the two countries had during the previous Moon Jae-in administration. However, the durability of this detente is uncertain, given the evolving political situations in both countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Japan grapples with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida\u2019s <\/span>declining approval<\/span><\/a> and internal party scandals, it is South Korea\u2019s domestic politics that may impact the future of bilateral relations more critically.<\/span><\/p>\n

In Japan, Kishida faces significant challenges. His approval rating has fallen to around 17%, signaling potential instability in his leadership. Additionally, his party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is mired in a <\/span>fundraising scandal<\/span><\/a>, further complicating the political landscape.<\/span><\/p>\n

The scandal has exposed rifts within the LDP, as different factions have had various reactions to the crisis, with some <\/span>complying<\/span><\/a> with Kishida\u2019s directives to disband and others openly <\/span>defying<\/span><\/a> them. This situation underscores a period of political uncertainty in Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

A HOUSE DIVIDED<\/b><\/p>\n

Despite Kishida\u2019s low approval rating, his government may not be at immediate risk of falling, but its stability beyond September remains in question for several reasons.<\/span><\/p>\n

Firstly, Kishida has scheduled an <\/span>official visit to the U.S.<\/span><\/a> in early April, including a summit with President Joe Biden. It is unlikely that Kishida will be replaced when there are still plans for such a diplomatic event.<\/span><\/p>\n

Secondly, the search for a successor within the LDP has been challenging. Prominent figures such as digital minister Taro Kono, former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba, and former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi have public appeal. However, a <\/span>survey by <\/span>Asahi Shimbun<\/span><\/i><\/a> newspaper indicates that none of these potential successors have overwhelming support within the party.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thirdly, Kishida\u2019s term as LDP president concludes in September. He plans to dissolve the House of Representatives at the end of the regular session in June and call for new parliamentary elections. However, his low approval rating casts doubt on his ability to dissolve the House and influence the outcome of the elections, especially if influential figures within the LDP block such a move.<\/span><\/p>\n

The period leading up to the end of Kishida\u2019s LDP presidency will thus be critical in determining the future leadership of Japan and, by extension, its role in international relations, including the relationship with South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Japanese Prime Minister Fumo Kishida delivers a policy speech during a plenary session of the Japanese House of Representatives, Jan. 30, 2024 | Image: Prime Minister\u2019s Office of Japan<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

DIPLOMATIC MINEFIELD<\/b><\/p>\n

The future of Japan-Korea relations is likely to be less affected by changes in Japan\u2019s leadership and more by political shifts in South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite Kishida\u2019s government potentially ending, there appears to be a growing consensus among Japan\u2019s political leaders that maintaining strong relations with South Korea is necessary. This viewpoint has been consistently supported across various political factions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, the Shinzo Abe faction within the LDP, known for its hardline stance toward the ROK, has seen its influence <\/span>diminish<\/span><\/a> due to its alleged involvement in an illegal funding scandal.<\/span><\/p>\n

In contrast, South Korea\u2019s internal politics present a more complex picture. While the Yoon administration has spent a lot of its political capital on improving ROK-Japan ties, the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) could disrupt this fragile bilateral relationship if it gains more power in the upcoming parliamentary elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

While South Korea\u2019s National Assembly has little influence over the president\u2019s foreign policy initiatives, the DP\u2019s potential rise in power could lead to a renewed focus on contentious historical issues, further complicating ROK-Japan relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

The South Korean Supreme Court in December <\/span>upheld<\/span><\/a> two appellate court rulings that ordered Japanese companies to compensate South Koreans forced into wartime labor during Japan\u2019s occupation of Korea from 1910 to 1945.<\/span><\/p>\n

This decision came in spite of the Yoon administration\u2019s <\/span>unilateral decision<\/span><\/a> to compensate these victims without Japan\u2019s involvement. Tokyo views this ruling as a <\/span>violation of the 1965 treaty<\/span><\/a> that normalized bilateral ties. However, if Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. and Nippon Steel Corp. \u2014 the two Japanese companies that the South Korean Supreme Court ordered to compensate the wartime labor victims \u2014 refuse to follow the order, the court could, once again, order to have their assets in South Korea seized.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the DP gains more seats in the parliament after the elections, it will likely support the Supreme Court\u2019s ruling and align with civic organizations advocating for the victims, potentially reigniting diplomatic tensions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Such a turn of events will likely cause Seoul-Tokyo relations to return to the status quo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another contentious issue is Japan\u2019s decision to <\/span>release treated contaminated water<\/span><\/a> from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the sea. The Yoon administration <\/span>stated<\/span><\/a> at the time that it neither endorsed nor rejected Tokyo\u2019s plan, which effectively translated to tacit approval.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung returns to party duties after he recovered from an assassination attempt earlier in the year, Jan. 17, 2024 | Image: Democratic Party<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

The DP criticized the move as indicative of the Yoon administration\u2019s <\/span>subservience<\/span><\/a> to Japan. Although this decision <\/span>has not significantly affected<\/span><\/a> South Korean consumption of Japanese seafood products, the DP might <\/span>revisit this issue<\/span><\/a> to challenge the Yoon administration\u2019s approach toward Japan in light of the decision by <\/span>China<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>Hong Kong<\/span><\/a> to ban all seafood imports from Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

The sovereignty dispute over the Dokdo islets (referred to as Takeshima in Japan) remains a sensitive issue. The South Korean government\u2019s <\/span>formal protests<\/span><\/a> and the DP\u2019s <\/span>proposal last year<\/span><\/a> to designate Oct. 25 as Dokdo Day to assert sovereignty over the islets indicate the ongoing political significance of this territorial dispute.<\/span><\/p>\n

The passage of such legislation could strain relations between Seoul and Tokyo, especially if the DP gains more power.<\/span><\/p>\n

Furthermore, the <\/span>removal of a memorial stone<\/span><\/a> in Gunma Prefecture for Korean victims of wartime forced labor last week has raised concerns in South Korea about Japan\u2019s attempts to whitewash historical wrongdoings.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The removal, which the South Korean government did not formally protest, could be leveraged by the DP to question the Yoon administration\u2019s foreign policy, framing it as an inadequate response to Japan\u2019s perceived historical revisionism.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Japan\u2019s political situation may appear stable in its foreign policy approach toward South Korea, the shifting political climate in South Korea, especially the potential empowerment of the DP, could significantly influence the future of bilateral relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

The upcoming elections in South Korea and the subsequent political developments will be crucial in determining the trajectory of ROK-Japan relations amid these historical and diplomatic challenges.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The improvement in relations between South Korea and Japan over the past year signifies a notable shift from the strained ties the two countries had during the previous Moon Jae-in administration. However, the durability of this detente is uncertain, given the evolving political situations in both countries. While Japan grapples with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2203732,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[27,28],"class_list":["post-2203731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-domestic-politics","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nFate of fragile South Korea-Japan detente depends on ROK political shifts - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/02\/fate-of-fragile-south-korea-japan-detente-depends-on-rok-political-shifts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fate of fragile South Korea-Japan detente depends on ROK political shifts - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The improvement in relations between South Korea and Japan over the past year signifies a notable shift from the strained ties the two countries had during the previous Moon Jae-in administration. 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