{"id":2203731,"date":"2024-02-05T19:02:35","date_gmt":"2024-02-05T10:02:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2203731"},"modified":"2024-02-06T17:39:50","modified_gmt":"2024-02-06T08:39:50","slug":"fate-of-fragile-south-korea-japan-detente-depends-on-rok-political-shifts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/02\/fate-of-fragile-south-korea-japan-detente-depends-on-rok-political-shifts\/","title":{"rendered":"Fate of fragile South Korea-Japan detente depends on ROK political shifts"},"content":{"rendered":"
The <\/span>improvement in relations<\/span><\/a> between South Korea and Japan over the past year signifies a notable shift from the strained ties the two countries had during the previous Moon Jae-in administration. However, the durability of this detente is uncertain, given the evolving political situations in both countries.<\/span><\/p>\n While Japan grapples with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida\u2019s <\/span>declining approval<\/span><\/a> and internal party scandals, it is South Korea\u2019s domestic politics that may impact the future of bilateral relations more critically.<\/span><\/p>\n In Japan, Kishida faces significant challenges. His approval rating has fallen to around 17%, signaling potential instability in his leadership. Additionally, his party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is mired in a <\/span>fundraising scandal<\/span><\/a>, further complicating the political landscape.<\/span><\/p>\n The scandal has exposed rifts within the LDP, as different factions have had various reactions to the crisis, with some <\/span>complying<\/span><\/a> with Kishida\u2019s directives to disband and others openly <\/span>defying<\/span><\/a> them. This situation underscores a period of political uncertainty in Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n A HOUSE DIVIDED<\/b><\/p>\n Despite Kishida\u2019s low approval rating, his government may not be at immediate risk of falling, but its stability beyond September remains in question for several reasons.<\/span><\/p>\n Firstly, Kishida has scheduled an <\/span>official visit to the U.S.<\/span><\/a> in early April, including a summit with President Joe Biden. It is unlikely that Kishida will be replaced when there are still plans for such a diplomatic event.<\/span><\/p>\n Secondly, the search for a successor within the LDP has been challenging. Prominent figures such as digital minister Taro Kono, former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba, and former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi have public appeal. However, a <\/span>survey by <\/span>Asahi Shimbun<\/span><\/i><\/a> newspaper indicates that none of these potential successors have overwhelming support within the party.<\/span><\/p>\n Thirdly, Kishida\u2019s term as LDP president concludes in September. He plans to dissolve the House of Representatives at the end of the regular session in June and call for new parliamentary elections. However, his low approval rating casts doubt on his ability to dissolve the House and influence the outcome of the elections, especially if influential figures within the LDP block such a move.<\/span><\/p>\n The period leading up to the end of Kishida\u2019s LDP presidency will thus be critical in determining the future leadership of Japan and, by extension, its role in international relations, including the relationship with South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n