{"id":2203664,"date":"2024-01-29T17:35:06","date_gmt":"2024-01-29T08:35:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2203664"},"modified":"2024-01-30T17:46:23","modified_gmt":"2024-01-30T08:46:23","slug":"why-south-koreas-arms-deals-with-poland-faces-unexpected-hurdles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/01\/why-south-koreas-arms-deals-with-poland-faces-unexpected-hurdles\/","title":{"rendered":"Why South Korea\u2019s arms deals with Poland faces unexpected hurdles"},"content":{"rendered":"

The recent change in Poland\u2019s government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, has brought to light the challenges and uncertainties in international arms agreements, particularly the ongoing deals between Warsaw and Seoul.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite initial concerns about Poland <\/span>potentially backing out<\/span><\/a> of these arms deals, such fears have momentarily subsided. However, the situation reveals a vital lesson for South Korea about the importance of vigilance and adaptability in relation to international defense contracts.<\/span><\/p>\n

The combination of internal policy issues in Seoul and the evolving political landscape in Warsaw raised the risk of disruption in the arms transfer agreement. South Korea\u2019s initial failure to secure enough funding for loans to Poland also contributed to Warsaw\u2019s concerns about the deals\u2019 viability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, the shift in the Polish government has introduced a variable that could affect the continuation of defense contracts with South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

MISCOMMUNICATION AND MISUNDERSTANDINGS<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea finalized an arms transfer agreement with Poland, valued at <\/span>$22.4 billion<\/span><\/a> (30 trillion won), during then-Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki\u2019s tenure. However, Tusk was elected as the new Polish prime minister in Dec. 2023 following a no-confidence vote against Morawiecki.<\/span><\/p>\n

Upon assuming office, Tusk <\/span>stated<\/span><\/a> that the loans the South Korean government promised to finance the deal did \u201cnot exist.\u201d While he later elaborated, saying that he had unearthed a \u201cproblem\u201d with the financing arrangement, Tusk did not assign blame to any specific party, instead suggesting that the issue stemmed from a \u201cmisunderstanding\u201d regarding the funding mechanism of the deal.<\/span><\/p>\n

This situation points to possible issues with internal communication as part of the shift in administration in Poland.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe \u2018misunderstanding\u2019 Tusk mentioned could have resulted from the previous government communicating its decisions, especially regarding financial issues related to the arms deals, non-transparently to the Polish public,\u201d Oskar Pietrewicz, a senior analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Marco Milani of the University of Bologna agreed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cDomestic politics played a very important role here,\u201d Milani told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>. \u201cThe previous government and the newly elected one have sharp disagreements. Not surprisingly, once elected, the new government started to investigate all the things that the previous one did in case something goes wrong.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (left) delivers a speech at the swearing-in ceremony for the country’s Council of Ministers, Dec. 13, 2023 | Image: Chancellery of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

BIPARTISAN EFFORTS<\/b><\/p>\n

The Export-Import Bank of Korea was designated to play a key role in providing loans for Polish arms purchasers. However, as per the current provisions of South Korea\u2019s <\/span>Export-Import Bank Act<\/span><\/a>, the capital limit for bank funding stands at $11.2 billion (15 trillion won), a figure significantly lower than the $22.4 billion arms deal agreed upon with Warsaw.<\/span><\/p>\n

To address this shortfall, South Korean lawmakers <\/span>proposed a pair of bills<\/span><\/a> to amend the funding cap. Democratic Party (DP) lawmaker Yang Ki-dae proposed a bill to raise the limit to $26.2 billion (35 trillion won) while People Power Party lawmaker Yoon Young-seok put forward a bill suggesting an increase to $22.4 billion (30 trillion won).<\/span><\/p>\n

This <\/span>bipartisan effort<\/span><\/a> to raise the capital limit reflects a shared understanding among South Korea\u2019s politically divided factions about the necessity of enhancing funding for defense companies trying to expand their international footprint.<\/span><\/p>\n

In a meeting with Yoon Hee-sung, the head of the Korea Export-Import Bank, the DP\u2019s Yang <\/span>stressed<\/span><\/a> the importance of securing sufficient funding for the arms deals, calling it a matter of national interest.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, despite <\/span>expectations<\/span><\/a> of swift legislative action to raise the capital limit, progress has been delayed due to ongoing <\/span>discussions<\/span><\/a> within the National Assembly concerning the expansion of the country\u2019s public transit infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n

Confronted with the National Assembly\u2019s inability to promptly enact the necessary amendments under the Export-Import Bank Act, the South Korean government is exploring alternative financing routes. These include collaborating with <\/span>domestic commercial banks<\/span><\/a> to generate the required funds and the potential <\/span>purchase of Polish bonds<\/span><\/a> as an additional method to ensure the financial viability of the arms deals.<\/span><\/p>\n

ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL<\/b><\/p>\n

In Poland, the arms deals that the previous government agreed upon with the ROK have encountered challenges stemming from internal political disagreements and the new government\u2019s inclination toward more domestic and EU-focused defense policies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Under the Morawiecki administration, Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau stated that Poland was \u201c<\/span>counting on<\/span><\/a>\u201d South Korea for military armaments as part of Warsaw\u2019s defense modernization efforts.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Tusk\u2019s suggestion that the arms deals were in jeopardy led to a brief <\/span>squabble<\/span><\/a> with former Polish defense minister Mariusz Blaszczak. Subsequently, deputy defense minister Pawel Bejda clarified that while Poland was not looking to withdraw from its agreements, it would turn its focus toward bolstering its domestic arms production.<\/span><\/p>\n

The political debate in Poland over the arms agreements with South Korea can be partly attributed to the Tusk administration being \u201cinherently critical of the activities of the previous government,\u201d according to Eric Ballback, a Korea Foundation Fellow at the Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin (SWP).<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite these tensions, <\/span>communications<\/span><\/a> between Korean and Polish officials regarding the deal have continued. In December, Tusk <\/span>reportedly expressed interest<\/span><\/a> in upholding the contracts, provided that the financing aspects were adequately addressed. However, speculation that Tusk might reduce Warsaw\u2019s reliance on Seoul as a key arms supplier has been a major topic of discussion in South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Poland\u2019s defense industry, which has been struggling to find its footing since the end of the Cold War, has been trying to <\/span>strengthen<\/span><\/a> its domestic capabilities. This effort, often referred to as the \u201c<\/span>Polonization<\/span><\/a>\u201d of its defense industry, involves balancing the immediate need for military equipment with the long-term goal of developing a robust domestic defense sector.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Amid these developments, some in Korean <\/span>media<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>academia<\/span><\/a> have voiced concerns that Tusk\u2019s pro-EU stance might lead to closer ties between Warsaw and its European partners, potentially affecting its arms deals with the ROK.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Pietrewicz of PISM argues that these apprehensions might be an oversimplification.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cA pro-EU stance is not synonymous with an unwillingness to collaborate with South Korea or other like-minded non-European partners,\u201d he noted.<\/span><\/p>\n

Echoing this sentiment, Eric Ballbach of SWP said, \u201cA pro-EU orientation does not signal an unwillingness to partner with Korea on diplomatic or economic issues,\u201d further noting that \u201cEU-Korea relations are currently closer than they have ever been due to an overlap in strategic interest and a row of challenges both sides are facing.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

A South Korean K9 howitzer, Nov. 15, 2022 | Image: ROK Ministry of National Defense via Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

JUMPING THE SHARK<\/b><\/p>\n

Currently, the concerns about Poland withdrawing from its arms agreement with South Korea seem less substantiated than initially thought. However, the issues faced in the Seoul-Warsaw arms deal highlight the inherent political risks involved in such international agreements.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s approach to its arms deals with Poland was likely overly ambitious, evidenced by its failure to ensure that adequate funding was in place before finalizing the agreements. This oversight led to doubts in Warsaw regarding the deals\u2019 feasibility.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although the ROK is now taking steps to address this funding shortfall, entering into such significant deals without a secured financial framework was a risky move.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Seoul could not have foreseen Warsaw\u2019s unexpected elections resulting from a no-confidence vote, the lack of preparedness for such a shift in government has complicated its international arms deals with Poland and, potentially, other countries.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Regardless of how its arms deals with Warsaw eventually conclude, this episode serves as a valuable lesson for Seoul about the importance of thoroughly evaluating political dynamics, domestically and in partner countries, before embarking on major international agreements.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the Yoon administration may have played a large role in pushing for arms exports to Poland, its lack of preparedness will likely compel South Korea\u2019s other trade partners to scrutinize their respective arms deals, which could jeopardize Seoul\u2019s hopes to remain a major player in the global arms industry <\/span>in the long term<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The recent change in Poland\u2019s government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, has brought to light the challenges and uncertainties in international arms agreements, particularly the ongoing deals between Warsaw and Seoul. Despite initial concerns about Poland potentially backing out of these arms deals, such fears have momentarily subsided. However, the situation reveals a vital […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2203665,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24,26,28],"class_list":["post-2203664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy South Korea\u2019s arms deals with Poland faces unexpected hurdles - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/01\/why-south-koreas-arms-deals-with-poland-faces-unexpected-hurdles\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why South Korea\u2019s arms deals with Poland faces unexpected hurdles - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The recent change in Poland\u2019s government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, has brought to light the challenges and uncertainties in international arms agreements, particularly the ongoing deals between Warsaw and Seoul. 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