{"id":2203398,"date":"2024-01-10T17:47:03","date_gmt":"2024-01-10T08:47:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2203398"},"modified":"2024-01-11T16:57:21","modified_gmt":"2024-01-11T07:57:21","slug":"forecasting-south-koreas-2024-economic-growth-and-challenges","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/01\/forecasting-south-koreas-2024-economic-growth-and-challenges\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting South Korea\u2019s 2024 economic growth and challenges"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s GDP growth was substantially under its expected potential last year, registering at an estimated 1.4%. Projections for the current year suggest an uptick in growth, primarily attributed to a strong resurge in exports, especially in the semiconductor industry.<\/span><\/p>\n

Investments in industry facilities, closely correlated with exports and the semiconductor sector, are also predicted to further fuel this growth rebound.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, projections remain cautiously optimistic, with an expected modest growth of 2.1% for 2024, which aligns with South Korea\u2019s estimated potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, concerns persist that the average growth across 2023 and 2024 could still fall short of the potential, largely due to weakened domestic consumption and the deterrent effect of high interest rates on construction investments.<\/span><\/p>\n

These concerns gained prominence with the recent financial restructuring sought by Taeyoung Engineering & Construction Company, highlighting the broader potential impact on the country\u2019s credit market, the real estate sector and construction investments.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the South Korean government allocating $64.4 billion (85 trillion won) to stabilize the real estate market, high interest rates could pose significant challenges to project financing.<\/span><\/p>\n

TRADE, INFLATION, JOBS<\/b><\/p>\n

The projection for South Korea\u2019s consumer price index (CPI) inflation in 2024 is set at 2.4%. An increase in CPI inflation was noted in the final quarter of 2023, which analysts attribute to rising oil and public utility prices alongside a strong labor market.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, a decrease in CPI inflation is anticipated in 2024, resulting from base effects and weaker growth momentum. Recent inflation trends have been driven by supply-side factors such as increased oil and agricultural product prices and demand-side dynamics, including robus labor participation and low unemployment rates.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, supply-side inflation is expected to ease in 2024. Moreover, as the job market cools from the previous year, demand-pull inflation is projected to moderate as well.<\/span><\/p>\n

The labor market has shown a swifter expansion rate than anticipated, partly due to greater participation from older and female workers. December saw an employment rate of 61.7%, a record high for the month. However, this trend may wane, with certain sectors like health care possibly having reached peak job growth.<\/span><\/p>\n

Forecasts for the current account (C\/A) surplus have been revised upwards for both 2023 and 2024, with new figures at 1.5% and 2.9% of GDP, compared to earlier forecasts of 1.4% and 2.6%, respectively. This upward revision is primarily attributed to a shift from a trade deficit to a surplus, bolstered by increased semiconductor exports.<\/span><\/p>\n

This adjustment comes despite a decrease in primary income, especially in comparison to 2023 when the government offered tax benefits for foreign dividends.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, several risks loom over these forecasts, such as potential spikes in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, China\u2019s economic slowdown and trade uncertainties during a U.S. election year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Within South Korea, the upcoming parliamentary elections are expected to be a focal point. The country\u2019s shrinking and aging population poses a challenge to both domestic consumption and investment. Nonetheless, the expanded labor market participation by women and the elderly is likely to provide some buffer against these demographic pressures.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

The Bank of Korea, Oct. 27, 2016 | Image: Bank of Korea via Flickr<\/a> (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0<\/a>)<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

GROWTH VS STABILITY<\/b><\/p>\n

The Bank of Korea (BOK), the country\u2019s central bank, is expected to reduce policy rates in the second half of 2024 to bolster economic growth amid concerns about consumer price index (CPI) inflation exceeding projections, rising household debt and the impact of U.S. interest rates potentially weakening the Korean won and causing potential capital outflows.<\/span><\/p>\n

Growth concerns are predicted to be at the forefront in 2024, with the two-year average growth rate for 2023 to 2024 expected to dip below 2%. With the U.S. interest-hiking cycle potentially coming to an end, which would narrow the gap with South Korean rates, the likelihood of capital outflows may decrease. This could lead the BOK to consider a more dovish monetary policy policy.<\/span><\/p>\n

The central bank might also try to manage the pace of interest rate reductions to balance the need for economic stimulation against the risks of financial instability, such as rising home prices, growing household debt and the potential for defaults among corporations and small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs).<\/span><\/p>\n

While policy rates are projected to remain unchanged in the first half of the year, the government might steer the banking sector to increase market liquidity, particularly to alleviate the impact of high base rates on SMEs.<\/span><\/p>\n

In terms of fiscal policy, the government is projected to maintain a conservative stance. The proposed budget for 2024 stands at $497.4 billion (656.6 trillion won), marking a 2.8% increase from the previous year, emphasizing efficient spending, reduced pork barrel allocations and the prioritization of growth and welfare.<\/span><\/p>\n

Concerns have been raised about a 20% cut in discretionary spending and its potential adverse effects on economic recovery. Projections suggest that the national tax revenue target for 2024 may fall short by $25 billion (33 trillion won) compared to 2023, potentially exacerbating the country\u2019s fiscal challenges.<\/span><\/p>\n

Projected fiscal deficits are 3.9% and 2.9% of GDP for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with national debt forecasted to rise to $905.9 billion (1,196.2 trillion won), equating to a 51% debt-to-GDP ratio.<\/span><\/p>\n

The 2024 budget plan, however, does include an 8.7% increase in social and welfare sector spending, enhancing pensions and widening support. Conversely, a notable 14.7% reduction in the research and development sector has caused some concern.<\/span><\/p>\n

These budgetary decisions are expected to spark debate over fiscal responsibility, economic recovery and resource allocation in the lead-up to the country\u2019s upcoming general elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

An image depicting foreign exchange markets | Image: Canva<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

NAVIGATING ECONOMIC WATERS<\/b><\/p>\n

The medium-term outlook for the Korean won is cautiously optimistic, with expectations that the reconstruction of C\/A buffers will contribute to the won\u2019s outperformance against regional counterparts such as the Taiwan dollar and the offshore Chinese yuan.<\/span><\/p>\n

By the end of 2024, the USD-KRW exchange rate is projected to settle at around 1,250. Stability is expected to prevail in the short term, with a tendency for the won to appreciate in the medium term.<\/span><\/p>\n

In December, the won traded sideways against the U.S. dollar, struggling to hold onto gains made in November, which were prompted by early indications of a slowdown in U.S. inflation and economic activity. The Korean won also failed to respond to the continued decrease in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, underperforming when compared to the wider Asian emerging market currencies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the favorable foreign exchange policy, exemplified by the extension of a $35 billion swap line between the BOK and the National Pension Service, this agreement has removed the demand for U.S. dollars in the spot market.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s economy is poised for a potential upswing in GDP growth in 2024, primarily driven by exports, especially in the semiconductor sector. However, challenges persist, including subdued domestic consumption, high interest rates affecting construction investment and ongoing geopolitical tensions.<\/span><\/p>\n

The BOK is expected to prioritize growth, possibly through rate reductions. Fiscal policy is set to remain focused on efficient spending, yet a lower tax revenue target may contribute to a projected increase in the fiscal deficit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite these uncertainties, analysts maintain an optimistic view of the Korean won. The coming year promises a nuanced economic journey for South Korea, demanding careful management of global and local factors to achieve sustained growth.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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