{"id":2203391,"date":"2024-01-09T18:20:11","date_gmt":"2024-01-09T09:20:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2203391"},"modified":"2024-01-10T17:47:25","modified_gmt":"2024-01-10T08:47:25","slug":"national-elections-highlight-anti-incumbent-sentiment-in-south-korea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/01\/national-elections-highlight-anti-incumbent-sentiment-in-south-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"National elections highlight anti-incumbent sentiment in South Korea"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since its transition to democracy in 1987, South Korea has experienced a distinct pattern in its political elections. Over the past 37 years, the country has held 10 general elections for the National Assembly, revealing a consistent trend: South Korean voters are often reluctant to re-elect incumbents.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While incumbent parties occasionally perform well depending on the president\u2019s popularity, voting trends point to deeper issues within the nation\u2019s political system, specifically the instability of party structures and the typically short careers of politicians.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Korea Pro<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> analysis indicates:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The unpopularity of the National Assembly: The National Assembly suffers from perceptions of ineffectiveness and corruption, negatively impacting the re-election prospects of incumbents associated with the legislative body.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A fragile party system: South Korean political parties are characterized by centralization and their lack of staying power. They often collapse and reform, heavily influenced by individual personalities rather than stable party ideologies.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Incumbents\u2019 weak societal ties: National politicians, unlike their local counterparts, have weaker connections with their constituents. This is evident in the stronger re-election chances of candidates who have previously held local office.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A candidate selection system based on loyalty: Re-selection of candidates within parties often hinges on their loyalty to the party rather than their effectiveness in serving constituents. This can lead to the re-selection of less competent candidates.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The last general election as an anomaly: The last general election showed a deviation from the usual pattern. However, this change could be attributed to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and a return to the typical anti-incumbent sentiment may be imminent.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Persistent challenges for weak parties: Minor parties with shallow foundations will likely continue to face anti-incumbent sentiment.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><b>CHALLENGES FACING THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since its shift to democracy in 1987, South Korea has made significant political strides, including overcoming a history of military coups and achieving its first peaceful transition of power between ruling and opposition parties in 1998. Despite these advancements, South Korea\u2019s democratic institutions, notably the National Assembly, have not escaped scrutiny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Public perception of the National Assembly has seen <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.index.go.kr\/unity\/potal\/indicator\/IndexInfo.do?clasCd=8&amp;idxCd=8048#:~:text='%EC%9D%98%EB%A3%8C%EA%B3%84'%EA%B0%80%2076.4%25%EB%A1%9C,%EB%A1%9C%20%EA%B0%80%EC%9E%A5%20%EB%82%AE%EC%9D%80%20%ED%8E%B8%EC%9D%B4%EB%8B%A4.\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">fluctuations<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in trust. From a mere 16.7% trust level in 2013, it witnessed a notable increase to 34.4% in 2021, only to decrease again to 24.1% in 2022. This wavering trust reflects the electorate\u2019s ongoing concerns about the effectiveness and integrity of the institution.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Existing <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0261379416304024?casa_token=EDk41dakZt0AAAAA:dxdtBG7wta2klqdkqA9fuhMi0aJ8VqsNvD8Uyn8BBhkA2fMVS9EAw_tInmxQriscPvdbtdOG_Uk\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">research<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> spotlights the significant impact of the National Assembly\u2019s low approval ratings on the electoral success of its incumbents. The prevailing view among voters is the perception of corruption within the Assembly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This perception has historically disadvantaged incumbents, with a marked decrease in their likelihood of reelection \u2013 a trend that has been particularly pronounced in elections held before 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Incumbents during this period were 20 to 30% less likely to be re-elected than new candidates.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2203392\" style=\"width: 1880px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2203392\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2203392\" src=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/01\/1-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1870\" height=\"1000\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/01\/1-3.png 1870w, https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/01\/1-3-935x500.png 935w, https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/01\/1-3-1255x670.png 1255w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1870px) 100vw, 1870px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2203392\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Main opposition Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung (left) attends an emergency general meeting, July 5, 2023; Ahn Cheol-so (right) addresses his supporters, Feb. 2, 2023 | Image: <a href=\"https:\/\/theminjoo.kr\/board\/view\/photo\/1195090\">Democratic Party of Korea<\/a>, Ahn Cheol-soo via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/photo?fbid=730426071785593&amp;set=pcb.730426148452252\">Facebook<\/a>, edited by Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n<p><b>ISSUES WITH CANDIDATE SELECTION\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">South Korea, like many democracies, faces challenges regarding the quality of political candidates. Voters\u2019 dissatisfaction often stems from how candidates are chosen, as the selection process may be influenced by party elites favoring loyalists or party members preferring ideologically driven figures.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In some democracies, primaries or open primaries allow party members or regular voters to choose candidates, but South Korea\u2019s approach differs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0261379418302695?casa_token=ecANtTae8q8AAAAA:36GcjHP3hEmrrglx9knClOtadtYRzebzS0ji1LV6L0zBNeFzFjuRR9NR0l9C5RPkuRumMbxQRTY#fn7\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">transparency<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of South Korea\u2019s candidate selection for national elections has been a long-standing issue. Until the late 1990s, party leaders routinely and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.co.kr\/books?id=g_mODwAAQBAJ&amp;printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">openly<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> selected candidates they believed would help retain or win seats.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite efforts post-2000 to introduce competitive primaries, the practice of \u201cstrategic nominations\u201d persists. These nominations, often derisively termed \u201c<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.co.kr\/books?id=g_mODwAAQBAJ&amp;printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&amp;q=parachute&amp;f=false\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">parachute nominations<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">,\u201d typically involve selecting candidates with little to no connection to the constituencies they represent.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">South Korea employs a mixed electoral system, combining directly elected constituency assembly members and those chosen through proportional representation on party lists. This system aims to represent diverse groups, like younger voters or non-homeowners.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, the party list system is susceptible to manipulation by party elites, contributing to its unpopularity. Nearly 63% of the South Korean electorate feels that the candidate selection process is not sufficiently democratic, and about 27% advocate for it to be <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hani.co.kr\/arti\/politics\/assembly\/1087341.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">abolished<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> entirely.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Examples of candidates with minimal local ties are not uncommon. In some cases, candidates from the ruling party are lauded for contesting difficult seats, seen as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.yna.co.kr\/view\/MYH20231226017100641\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">acting for the good of the party<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, others are chosen for their popularity with party leaders or their potential to attract votes. For instance, prominent politicians like <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/en.yna.co.kr\/view\/AEN20220508001151315\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lee Jae-myung<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/en.yna.co.kr\/view\/AEN20220508002000315\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ahn Cheol-soo<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> have contested in Incheon\u2019s Gyeyang district and Seongnam\u2019s Bundang-A district, respectively, where they are not local figures.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This situation often leads to a weak voter allegiance to specific candidates, especially when they lack a local connection. The result is a political environment where voter-candidate identification is low, and candidates may quickly lose their positions in subsequent elections if they fail to establish strong local ties.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>RETURN TO STATUS QUO?<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the 2020 National Assembly elections, the Democratic Party (DP), the ruling party at the time, secured a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/en.yna.co.kr\/view\/AEN20200415005856315\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">landslide victory<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> amid the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing the party to win 163 seats in the 300-seat National Assembly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Recent research <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/10168737.2022.2090593?casa_token=m_iZzS_ZZyoAAAAA:WdzeY79d0tpcRR2A0xI8kkanE65v0PJwDgan6M--7PzMKQEfdtfzgxOwBx5AQqNqCi610JrSLasjSQ\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">indicates<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that the DP owed its electoral victory to then-President Moon Jae-in\u2019s popularity. The Moon administration received domestic and international praise for effectively handling the pandemic, giving the DP a significant boost in that election.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Further, it is crucial to note the impact of then-opposition United Future Party\u2019s association with former President Park Geun-hye, impeached for corruption, on its performance that year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, the same research shows a varied response based on the pandemic\u2019s local impact: in areas with lower infection rates, DP candidates, including incumbents, fared well. In contrast, those in regions with higher infection rates struggled more and faced a greater risk of losing their seats.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While significant, the pandemic\u2019s effect on the 2020 general elections appears to have been a one-time event. Since then, the DP\u2019s popularity has <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gallup.co.kr\/gallupdb\/reportContent.asp?seqNo=1449\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">waned<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and uncertainties loom over its prospects in the upcoming elections.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With former DP lawmakers <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/en.yna.co.kr\/view\/AEN20240108002900315?section=search\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">defecting<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and its former leader about to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/en.yna.co.kr\/view\/AEN20240108006300315?section=search\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">quit<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, there is speculation that the party might introduce new candidates, potentially prompting the formation of new political factions or parties by sidelined party elites.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meanwhile, President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s PPP might leverage its minority status and anti-incumbent sentiment in the upcoming general elections. However, Yoon\u2019s own low approval rating could serve as an obstacle to this strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Amid these developments, there is a movement within both major parties toward the formation of new parties. For instance, former DP lawmaker Keum Tae-sup formed the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newparty.kr\/index.php\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New Party<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, while former PPP leader Lee Jun-seok established the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/rallypoint.kr\/main\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New Reform Party<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to challenge the entrenched two-party system.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite the emergence of new parties and frequent rebranding, the long-standing dominance of the two major parties will likely persist in South Korean politics. However, the underlying current of anti-incumbency remains a significant force, and it will continue to shape electoral outcomes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<div class=\"content-tags\"><a href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/tag\/domestic-politics\/\"><span class=\"tag\">Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since its transition to democracy in 1987, South Korea has experienced a distinct pattern in its political elections. Over the past 37 years, the country has held 10 general elections for the National Assembly, revealing a consistent trend: South Korean voters are often reluctant to re-elect incumbents.\u00a0 While incumbent parties occasionally perform well depending on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2203178,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[27],"class_list":["post-2203391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-domestic-politics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>National elections highlight anti-incumbent sentiment in South Korea - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2024\/01\/national-elections-highlight-anti-incumbent-sentiment-in-south-korea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"National elections highlight anti-incumbent sentiment in South Korea - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Since its transition to democracy in 1987, South Korea has experienced a distinct pattern in its political elections. 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