{"id":2203195,"date":"2023-12-22T19:57:54","date_gmt":"2023-12-22T10:57:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2203195"},"modified":"2023-12-25T16:40:29","modified_gmt":"2023-12-25T07:40:29","slug":"seouls-ambitious-five-year-defense-plan-confronts-difficult-financial-realities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/12\/seouls-ambitious-five-year-defense-plan-confronts-difficult-financial-realities\/","title":{"rendered":"Seoul\u2019s ambitious five-year defense plan confronts difficult financial realities"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s new five-year defense plan allocates a staggering $268 billion (348.7 trillion won) for defense spending in an ambitious bid to bolster defense readiness.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But only two weeks after <\/span>its introduction<\/span><\/a>, the plan\u2019s feasibility is already in doubt.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Yoon Suk-yeol administration\u2019s Intermediate-Term National Defense Plan (<\/span>ITNDP<\/span><\/a>) calls for the government to heavily invest in advanced technology to address emerging regional and global asymmetric threats.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To achieve this goal, the plan proposes a substantial increase in defense spending and an accelerated timeline for acquiring new military assets and improving welfare for junior officers by 2028.<\/span><\/p>\n

This rapid development trajectory, a marked change from Yoon\u2019s earlier pledges, introduces complex challenges in resource allocation and effective budget management, and for the ITNDP to succeed, South Korea will need to navigate significant financial hurdles.<\/span><\/p>\n

There are already signs of strain, with the government forced to cut its defense budget for 2024 on Thursday.<\/span><\/p>\n

This <\/span>fiscal tightening<\/span><\/a> runs counter to the defense ministry\u2019s extensive spending ambitions and highlights potential <\/span>problems<\/span><\/a> in the administration\u2019s overall budget planning strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carries South Korea\u2019s first indigenous spy satellite from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, Dec. 1, 2023 | Image: ROK Ministry of National Defense<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

ALL IN ON 2028<\/b><\/p>\n

Through the ITNDP, South Korea\u2019s defense ministry aims for more than a 7% annual increase in its budget through 2028, and President Yoon Suk-yeol further emphasized this directive by <\/span>calling<\/span><\/a> for the ministry to \u201cspeed up\u201d asset acquisitions, leading the ministry to pledge to have the average acquisition timeline from 14 to seven years.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the heart of the ITNDP is the goal of enhancing South Korea\u2019s <\/span>three-axis<\/span><\/a> defense system, which includes the Kill Chain pre-emptive strike platform, the Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) system.<\/span><\/p>\n

A significant portion of the budget is earmarked for countering asymmetric threats, a concern the South Korean government has highlighted through recent warnings about the possibility of a \u201c<\/span>Hamas-style<\/span><\/a>\u201d attack by North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Key to this strategy is the development and deployment of advanced technologies. The plan calls for operating miniaturized and military spy satellites to increase the frequency of surveillance, particularly in response to North Korea\u2019s drone incursions that South Korea failed to promptly respond to last year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The plan sets a 2028 deadline for deploying Medium-altitude Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (MUAVs), suicide drones and Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, the ITNDP accelerates the timeline for deploying South Korea\u2019s long-range surface-to-air missile system (L-SAM) from 2030 to 2028. Seoul plans to use the interceptor to complement U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense batteries.<\/span><\/p>\n

The plan also calls for developing suicide drones and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons by 2028.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Park Hwee-rhak, a retired ROK army colonel, identified EMP weapons as crucial for deterring North Korean threats. However, he expressed reservations about the feasibility of developing effective laser weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cLaser weapons will be tricky. Even the U.S. has failed to develop them perfectly despite all the efforts it has put into them. They can strike shells, but it is still challenging to use them to hit missiles,\u201d Park said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

L-SAM missile canisters on view during a street march in Seoul | Image: Korea Pro (Sept. 26, 2023)<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

HUMAN RESOURCES<\/b><\/p>\n

Addressing the challenge of sustaining military manpower remains a core component of South Korea\u2019s defense plan, as the country wrestles with the consequences of its record-low birth rate and poor wages for military personnel.<\/span><\/p>\n

Specifically, the ITNDP aims to increase the ratio of mid-ranking officers while reducing the number of junior officers over the next five years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Financial incentives play a crucial role in this strategy. The plan includes a 33% increase in the ministry\u2019s one-time incentive package for short-term volunteer service, up to $9,200 (12 million won) for officers and $7,700 (10 million won) for non-commissioned officers.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, monthly wages for conscripts are set to rise to $1,575 (2.05 million won).<\/span><\/p>\n

The plan aims to sustain South Korea\u2019s military force of 500,000 active-duty personnel, but Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that the goal runs into a few \u201cproblems\u201d due to the declining number of young men eligible for military service.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cTo sustain 500,000, the defense ministry will need to acquire more volunteers\u00a0 \u2014 NCOs and officers \u2014 than in the past because they serve longer than draftees,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe Moon Jae-in administration significantly increased the salaries of draftees, but he reduced the time draftees serve. That has caused many young men to decide that there is not so much advantage of becoming an NCO or an officer.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He added that seeking to retain more mid-level officers \u201cwill require funds in the form of reenlistment incentives and bonuses like the United States uses to retain its military personnel.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

BUDGETARY REALITIES<\/b><\/p>\n

The goal of increasing defense spending by 7% every year as outlined in the ITNDP presents significant challenges for resource allocation and fiscal management, and the target is at odds with the Yoon administration\u2019s austere fiscal policy.<\/span><\/p>\n

A comparison of the finance ministry\u2019s 2023-2027 National Fiscal Framework and the defense ministry\u2019s 2024-2028 ITNDP reveals a discrepancy in budget estimates that could limit the realization of Yoon\u2019s defense goals.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The mismatch in finance and defense ministries\u2019 estimates escalates from $2.07 billion (2.7 trillion won) in 2025 to $6.9 billion (9 trillion won) in 2027. The finance ministry has proposed an average increase of 3.6% per year, in contrast to the ITNDP\u2019s proposal of 7%.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Confronted about the gap, the defense ministry <\/span>reportedly<\/span><\/a> responded that it would aim to \u201cpersuade\u201d the finance ministry to approve its increased spending. However, this strategy carries significant risks.<\/span><\/p>\n

First, it could <\/span>undermine<\/span><\/a> the credibility of the national budgeting process. Second, the discrepancy suggests a lack of communication and coordination within the administration.<\/span><\/p>\n

Finally, the defense ministry plan requires either a surge in economic growth and tax revenues or substantial budget cuts in other areas to be viable, but neither is likely to occur in the foreseeable future.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite this, former defense ministry official\u00a0 Kim Jung-sup, incumbent vice president of the Sejong Institute, said there has \u201calways\u201d been a gap between the finance and defense ministries\u2019 five-year spending proposals.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Hence a medium-term plan is partly for implementation, but it is also inherently aspirational. So, when annual budgets are passed, they tend to reflect less than what is outlined in the ITNDP, meaning things don\u2019t always go as planned,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cBut still, efforts should be made to reduce this gap,” the former defense ministry official suggested.<\/span><\/p>\n

THREE MORE YEARS<\/b><\/p>\n

The decision on Thursday to <\/span>reduce<\/span><\/a> next year\u2019s defense budget from the proposed $45.9 billion (59.8 trillion won) to $45.6 billion (59.4 trillion won) lowers the expected year-on-year increase from the Finance Ministry\u2019s initial 4.4% proposal to 4.2%.<\/span><\/p>\n

This adjustment came in the wake of the main opposition Democratic Party\u2019s (DP) intervention to restore funding in key areas, particularly in research and development, where the administration had proposed significant reductions.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIdeally, national security should follow a consistent direction, regardless of the ideological or political leanings of those in power,\u201d Shin of KIDA said. \u201cHowever, as is well known, the ruling and opposition parties tend to sharply disagree on many things, including the defense budget, which often leads to changes in the overall direction every time there is an administrative change.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The upcoming elections pose a further challenge to the ITNDP. If the DP retains its parliamentary majority after the general elections, it could impede the plan\u2019s spending goals, as evidenced this week by the defense ministry\u2019s <\/span>inability<\/span><\/a> to <\/span>secure<\/span><\/a> approval for a minor increase in defense expenditure.<\/span><\/p>\n

A critical factor in the successful implementation of the defense plan will be the Yoon administration\u2019s ability to adhere to its own intermediate defense plan schedules without being swayed by short-term political considerations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon\u2019s <\/span>comments<\/span><\/a> this week, downplaying the importance of \u201cfair opportunities\u201d and \u201cpreventing corruption\u201d in defense acquisitions as \u201cbudgetarily wasteful,\u201d raises concerns about the prioritization of expedience over integrity in defense spending.<\/span><\/p>\n

The administration\u2019s challenge lies in aligning its defense strategy with South Korea\u2019s economic and technological realities. The effectiveness of South Korea\u2019s defense plans hinges on a balanced approach that aligns ambitious goals with practical realities and ethical procurement practices, rather than an idealized military capability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Considering the president\u2019s remarks, it is unclear just how feasible the ITNDP will be.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lina Park and Joon Ha Park contributed reporting to this article. Edited by John Lee <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s new five-year defense plan allocates a staggering $268 billion (348.7 trillion won) for defense spending in an ambitious bid to bolster defense readiness.\u00a0 But only two weeks after its introduction, the plan\u2019s feasibility is already in doubt. The Yoon Suk-yeol administration\u2019s Intermediate-Term National Defense Plan (ITNDP) calls for the government to heavily invest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5770,"featured_media":2203201,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,27,28],"class_list":["post-2203195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-domestic-politics","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nSeoul\u2019s ambitious five-year defense plan confronts difficult financial realities - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/12\/seouls-ambitious-five-year-defense-plan-confronts-difficult-financial-realities\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Seoul\u2019s ambitious five-year defense plan confronts difficult financial realities - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Korea\u2019s new five-year defense plan allocates a staggering $268 billion (348.7 trillion won) for defense spending in an ambitious bid to bolster defense readiness.\u00a0 But only two weeks after its introduction, the plan\u2019s feasibility is already in doubt. 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