{"id":2203146,"date":"2023-12-15T15:00:46","date_gmt":"2023-12-15T06:00:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2203146"},"modified":"2023-12-18T16:00:37","modified_gmt":"2023-12-18T07:00:37","slug":"south-korea-warily-opens-its-forex-market-eyeing-growth-but-fearing-instability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/12\/south-korea-warily-opens-its-forex-market-eyeing-growth-but-fearing-instability\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea warily opens its forex market, eyeing growth but fearing instability"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s <\/span>decision<\/span><\/a> to liberalize its foreign exchange market in October presents a mix of opportunities and challenges. This policy shift, aimed at enhancing the liquidity and global standing of the Korean won, comes with the promise of stimulating market activity, but it also introduces risks such as increased market volatility and the necessity for robust regulatory oversight.<\/span><\/p>\n

Central to South Korea\u2019s market reforms is the opening of South Korea\u2019s foreign exchange market to international traders.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historically, South Korea confined the trading of the Korean won largely to transactions against the U.S. dollar, exclusively through domestic banks. Moreover, the <\/span>limited<\/span><\/a> trading for just 6.5 hours a day between 9 a.m. and 3:30 p.m. KST reflected a cautious approach, especially in contrast to the 24-hour activity of global forex markets.<\/span><\/p>\n

These constraints curtailed the international trading potential of the won and reflected South Korea\u2019s broader tendency toward a conservative financial strategy, a stance shaped in part by the aftermath of the <\/span>1997 Asian Financial Crisis<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

During that crisis, South Korea experienced a severe financial collapse that led to a sharp devaluation of the won, requiring a <\/span>bailout<\/span><\/a> from the International Monetary Fund. This crisis prompted South Korea to adopt more stringent financial regulations and a conservative approach to currency management.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, this approach has meant that the scope for foreign trading activity on won markets remains relatively limited. According to the Bank of International Settlements, the <\/span>average<\/span><\/a> daily trading volume for all won-related forex products was $142 billion per day in 2022 \u2014 less than 2% of all daily foreign exchange <\/span>activity<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

By extending the trading hours and opening the market to international participants, South Korea is not only promoting increased liquidity and diversity in its financial sector but is also taking steps to enhance the international presence and influence of its currency.<\/span><\/p>\n

These changes are anticipated to have wide-ranging implications for the nation\u2019s economy, affecting everything from international trade to South Korea\u2019s role in the global financial system.<\/span><\/p>\n

For instance, South Korea will <\/span>launch<\/span><\/a> a pilot scheme in January to allow registered foreign institutions to access the onshore interbank foreign exchange market. The ROK government also plans to extend foreign exchange trading hours until 2 a.m. KST starting in July, bringing Korean markets closer in line to the world\u2019s largest forex trading hub, London.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a significant step,\u201d Joon Kim, a foreign exchange trader at a local securities company in Seoul, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>. \u201cThe Korean won will be traded among a wider audience and with richer liquidity.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Kim argued that \u201cit will take some years for the Korean won to fully adjust from being manipulated to being a real, internationally traded currency,\u201d but he nonetheless thinks these reforms are a step in the right direction.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jonathan Lee, who trades Asian emerging market currencies for SEB in Singapore, echoed Kim\u2019s sentiment.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThese reforms will be net positive for markets, although it will take a while to stabilize before markets start trusting the new reform [measures],\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

An illustration of a man looking at a computer screen | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

COSTS AND BENEFITS<\/b><\/p>\n

Some analysts are also hopeful that the move could have wider economic benefits for South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stephen Chiu, chief Asia foreign exchange and rates strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence in Hong Kong, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that the reforms could help Seoul achieve its long-standing ambition of acquiring <\/span>\u201cdeveloped market\u201d status<\/span><\/a>. Such an achievement would mean the inclusion of South Korean markets in many of the world\u2019s most important financial indices, leading to more significant capital inflows.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cReforms such as allowing more foreign investors to tap the onshore Korean won market and extending the onshore trading hours are significant, as this could facilitate index inclusion,\u201d Chiu said. \u201cFor example, Korean treasury bonds could be included in the FTSE Russell and further lift their popularity, which could in turn boost demand for the Korean won.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cMore interest in the usage of Korean won could boost its internationalization,\u201d he added. \u201cIt usually starts off with being a more popular investment currency, then eventually a more used trade-settlement currency and then a reserve currency.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the path to financial liberalization is not without its risks and challenges. A primary concern is the potential for increased market volatility.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Opening the foreign exchange market to international traders introduces a new level of unpredictability, such as more significant fluctuations in the value of the won, especially in the initial stages of the reform implementation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another significant area of concern is the adequacy of regulatory oversight. As South Korea\u2019s forex market opens up, the need for robust and effective regulation will become critical. Ensuring that these expanded markets remain transparent, fair and resistant to manipulation will be a critical task for South Korean financial authorities.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, while greater openness can lead to increased capital inflows and economic growth, it also exposes the domestic economy to global economic changes and shocks. South Korea\u2019s economy could become more susceptible to external financial crises or shifts in international investor sentiment.<\/span><\/p>\n

BALANCING THE WON\u2019S FUTURE<\/b><\/p>\n

Another important consequence of these measures is the opportunity for the Bank of Korea (BOK) to gain greater control over macroeconomic policy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Currently, the limited trading hours of the Korean won force foreign traders to rely on offshore <\/span>non-deliverable forward<\/span><\/a> contracts (NDFs) \u2014 financial products that provide a way for traders to minimize foreign exchange risks in markets where physical delivery of the currency is not possible.<\/span><\/p>\n

These NDF contracts, which are predominantly settled in U.S. dollars and bypass the physical exchange of the won, allow traders to \u201clock in\u201d a fixed exchange rate until markets reopen.<\/span><\/p>\n

This situation has led to the U.S. dollar\/Korean won NDF market becoming the <\/span>largest<\/span><\/a> globally, with a substantial average daily turnover.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, this dynamic has historically placed a large portion of won trading beyond the BOK\u2019s influence. This is a concern for central bankers and policymakers because NDF markets are now larger and more volatile than onshore forex markets \u2014 volatility that can <\/span>spill over<\/span><\/a> into onshore markets, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, the growth of NDF markets has made it more difficult for the BOK to conduct monetary policy and manage the exchange rate. This is because the markets are less regulated than South Korea\u2019s domestic forex market and are outside the direct purview of the central bank.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the overall interest in the Korean won could continue to rise, a more likely scenario is that trading interest could shift from won NDFs to onshore won spot markets [currency trading in the domestic market],\u201d Chiu told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>, meaning that more activity would come under the purview of Korean regulators and policymakers.<\/span><\/p>\n

The extension of trading hours is a critical step as it could make South Korea\u2019s exchange rate less exposed to the offshore NDF market. Policymakers and central bankers will be able to implement monetary policy and manage the exchange rate more effectively. Other central banks, such as in India and China, have taken similar steps to reduce the power of offshore NDF markets and bring more trading under the supervision of domestic regulators.<\/span><\/p>\n

Foreign exchange trader Kim remains confident about the positive outcomes of these reforms.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI expect that the extension of trading into London hours will be smooth and successful, which could encourage regulators to loosen up restrictions further, such as extending trading into New York hours too,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, these reforms also bring inherent challenges. The transition toward a more open market might introduce increased volatility, with potential fluctuations in the won\u2019s value affecting businesses and investors used to a stable currency environment.<\/span><\/p>\n

This new financial landscape will require Seoul to invest in an effective regulatory body to ensure market transparency and fairness, safeguarding against potential manipulation. Moreover, while increased openness will likely spur economic growth through capital inflows, it also exposes South Korea\u2019s economy to global financial shocks.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s decision to liberalize its foreign exchange market in October presents a mix of opportunities and challenges. This policy shift, aimed at enhancing the liquidity and global standing of the Korean won, comes with the promise of stimulating market activity, but it also introduces risks such as increased market volatility and the necessity for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2203147,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24],"class_list":["post-2203146","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Korea warily opens its forex market, eyeing growth but fearing instability - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/12\/south-korea-warily-opens-its-forex-market-eyeing-growth-but-fearing-instability\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Korea warily opens its forex market, eyeing growth but fearing instability - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Korea\u2019s decision to liberalize its foreign exchange market in October presents a mix of opportunities and challenges. 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