{"id":2202931,"date":"2023-11-30T17:25:21","date_gmt":"2023-11-30T08:25:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2202931"},"modified":"2023-12-01T16:02:56","modified_gmt":"2023-12-01T07:02:56","slug":"how-former-ruling-party-leader-plans-to-disrupt-south-koreas-upcoming-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/11\/how-former-ruling-party-leader-plans-to-disrupt-south-koreas-upcoming-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"How former ruling party leader plans to disrupt South Korea\u2019s upcoming elections"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s parliamentary elections, set for April 2024, present a unique political conundrum. A new, potentially disruptive factor emerges amid a backdrop of leadership challenges within the country\u2019s major political parties: former People Power Party (PPP) leader Lee Jun-seok.<\/span><\/p>\n

The main opposition Democratic Party (DP) continues to grapple with Lee Jae-myung\u2019s contentious leadership. His tenure, marred by <\/span>scandals<\/span><\/a> during and since his unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2022, continues to cast a shadow over his role as party leader.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prosecutors <\/span>indicted<\/span><\/a> Lee Jae-myung in March, and a significant number of lawmakers from his own party <\/span>approved<\/span><\/a> a motion granting permission for his potential arrest in September.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given his legal woes and the prevailing political division in South Korea, his <\/span>31% approval rating<\/span><\/a> in the latest Gallup Korea poll is unsurprising. However, he retains significant backing within his party: 60% of DP supporters approve of his performance, in stark contrast to the mere 10% approval from PPP supporters.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite these challenges, Lee Jae-myung is not the least favored party leader in South Korea. That distinction belongs to PPP leader Kim Gi-hyeon. Under Kim\u2019s leadership, marked by his close association with President Yoon Suk-yeol and a criticized <\/span>proposal<\/span><\/a> to expand Seoul\u2019s boundaries to encompass Gimpo, his approval rating plunged to a historic low of 26%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unlike Lee Jae-myung, Kim lacks substantial support within his own party, evidenced by a nearly even split in approval and disapproval among PPP supporters.<\/span><\/p>\n

This scenario exacerbates the PPP\u2019s <\/span>already concerning numbers<\/span><\/a> ahead of the parliamentary elections and potentially paves the way for a new political party headed by Lee Jun-seok.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee Jun-seok, a key figure in the 2022 South Korean presidential election who helped Yoon win the presidency, has faced a turbulent aftermath. His involvement with the party led to <\/span>allegations of sexual misconduct<\/span><\/a>, an <\/span>aborted police investigation<\/span><\/a> and his eventual <\/span>expulsion<\/span><\/a>, making way for Kim Gi-hyeon\u2019s leadership.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, in an unexpected turn, the PPP, seemingly bereft of fresh ideas, <\/span>reinstated him<\/span><\/a>, hoping to regain the support of young male voters who had largely turned their backs on Yoon.<\/span><\/p>\n

Now, Lee Jun-seok appears poised to chart his own path in South Korean politics.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung and other Democratic Party lawmakers, Nov. 30, 2023 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

THE LEE JUN-SEOK FACTOR<\/b><\/p>\n

Lee Jun-seok\u2019s dissatisfaction with his party\u2019s treatment and ongoing disagreements with Yoon has fueled speculation about his next political move. According to the National Barometer Survey (NBS), a party under his leadership might garner 21% support, positioning it as a formidable force in the political landscape where the two largest parties \u2014 the DP and the PPP \u2014 typically secure about a third of the electorate each.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, a deeper analysis of this 21% projected support reveals deeper political undercurrents. Lee\u2019s history with the PPP and his appeal among conservative young men suggest his new party would primarily draw support from the PPP\u2019s base. This scenario is not just a theoretical shift in voter allegiance; it could be a strategic move by Lee Jun-seok to settle old scores and unseat Kim Gi-hyeon.<\/span><\/p>\n

The NBS findings show a nearly balanced defection from both major parties: 19% from PPP supporters and 21% from DP supporters. However, this data requires further context, especially considering how DP supporters perceive the formation of Lee Jun-seok\u2019s prospective party.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gallup Korea\u2019s polling, which probes public opinion on Lee forming a new party, indicates that 38% of respondents are in favor. A significant 57% of DP supporters view the idea positively, presumably anticipating that Lee Jun-seok\u2019s party would more adversely affect the PPP. In contrast, only 18% of PPP supporters favor the idea, reflecting apprehension about potential vote splitting.<\/span><\/p>\n

These insights suggest that the NBS\u2019s 21% support figure for Lee Jun-seok\u2019s potential party might be inflated. If his party does enter the race, it might not meet these initial expectations.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Lee Jun-seok\u2019s ambitions seem to transcend mere electoral success. The creation of his own political party would place him at the heart of a struggle for control in the National Assembly. Such a move would solidify his image as a political maverick and lay the groundwork for his future political aspirations.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the upcoming parliamentary elections anticipated to be highly competitive, even a modest performance by Lee Jun-seok\u2019s party could significantly disrupt the PPP\u2019s chances. Even if his party doesn\u2019t meet expectations, it may be enough for him to exact revenge on his former colleagues.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korea\u2019s parliamentary elections, set for April 2024, present a unique political conundrum. A new, potentially disruptive factor emerges amid a backdrop of leadership challenges within the country\u2019s major political parties: former People Power Party (PPP) leader Lee Jun-seok. The main opposition Democratic Party (DP) continues to grapple with Lee Jae-myung\u2019s contentious leadership. His tenure, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2202932,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[27],"class_list":["post-2202931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-domestic-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nHow former ruling party leader plans to disrupt South Korea\u2019s upcoming elections - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/11\/how-former-ruling-party-leader-plans-to-disrupt-south-koreas-upcoming-elections\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How former ruling party leader plans to disrupt South Korea\u2019s upcoming elections - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Korea\u2019s parliamentary elections, set for April 2024, present a unique political conundrum. 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