{"id":2202845,"date":"2023-11-22T19:22:01","date_gmt":"2023-11-22T10:22:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2202845"},"modified":"2023-11-23T17:02:28","modified_gmt":"2023-11-23T08:02:28","slug":"how-suspending-the-inter-korean-military-deal-will-shape-south-korean-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/11\/how-suspending-the-inter-korean-military-deal-will-shape-south-korean-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"How suspending the inter-Korean military deal will shape South Korean policy"},"content":{"rendered":"
North Korea\u2019s successful <\/span>launch of a military spy satellite<\/span><\/a> late Tuesday drew a prompt response from South Korea, as Seoul moved to <\/span>partially suspend<\/span><\/a> an inter-Korean military deal only hours later.<\/span><\/p>\n The two Koreas concluded the <\/span>Comprehensive Military Agreement<\/span><\/a> (CMA) during a period of thawed relations between the neighbors in 2018 to reduce military tensions and the risk of accidental conflicts. Key components included the creation of buffer zones, a no-fly zone near the border and the dismantling of guard posts along the demilitarized zone (DMZ).<\/span><\/p>\n But the DPRK\u2019s repeated violations of the agreement and the deterioration of inter-Korean relations have led Seoul to reevaluate its stance, and the decision to suspend part of the deal could open the floodgates to its complete abandonment, with wide-ranging implications for the country\u2019s defense spending, domestic politics and more.<\/span><\/p>\n SOUTH KOREA\u2019S SHIFT<\/b><\/p>\n Domestically, South Korea\u2019s move to partially suspend the CMA may strengthen South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s standing among <\/span>those advocating a more assertive response<\/span><\/a> to North Korea\u2019s military actions. However, it also further risks alienating advocates for engaging Pyongyang, widening the divide in South Korean politics.<\/span><\/p>\n The suspension will further cement the perception that the president has ditched the previous Moon Jae-in administration\u2019s policy of rapprochement, which will likely polarize public opinion and could impact the administration\u2019s popularity if it leads to an increase in tensions.<\/span><\/p>\n This growing divide in voter sentiment will likely further <\/span>complicate<\/span><\/a> the ruling People Power Party\u2019s strategy ahead of April\u2019s parliamentary elections.<\/span><\/p>\n In terms of inter-Korean relations, this partial suspension of the CMA is one more nail in the coffin for dialogue or cooperation with the North, which has already been non-existent as Yoon prioritizes the DPRK\u2019s denuclearization under his \u201c<\/span>Audacious Initiative<\/span><\/a>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Seoul\u2019s move will likely compel Pyongyang \u2014 already sensitive to <\/span>strengthening ties<\/span><\/a> between the U.S., South Korea and Japan \u2014 to respond with its own military countermeasures like drills near the border, potentially exacerbating tensions and raising the risk of conflict.<\/span><\/p>\n On the international stage, the U.S. may view this move as a <\/span>necessary response<\/span><\/a> to North Korean aggressions, aligning with its broader security interests in the region. Japan, facing similar security threats from North Korea, will likely see the move as a positive step toward ensuring regional security.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n But China, which prioritizes stability on the Korean Peninsula, will likely view the decision to suspend the CMA with concern, which could negatively impact <\/span>South Korea-China<\/span><\/a> relations.<\/span><\/p>\n REASSESSING MILITARY STRATEGIES<\/b><\/p>\n So far, South Korea has only <\/span>announced<\/span><\/a> that it will restore reconnaissance and surveillance activities near the inter-Korean border. In the future, however, it may consider redeploying troops and military assets closer to the <\/span>Military Demarcation Line<\/span><\/a> (MDL), a move away from the de-escalation and demilitarization that were hallmarks of the CMA.<\/span><\/p>\n The reinstallation of guard posts and fortification of border defenses could follow, potentially increasing the risk of confrontation along the heavily armed border.<\/span><\/p>\n A crucial aspect of the suspension is its impact on military readiness and surveillance capabilities. South Korea faces challenges monitoring North Korean military activities, particularly with aerial surveillance, and the suspension of the no-fly zone will enable the ROK to deploy more <\/span>sophisticated surveillance systems<\/span><\/a> and increase aerial monitoring activities near the DMZ.<\/span><\/p>\n Better intelligence on DPRK military movements could, in turn, benefit U.S.-ROK joint planning on how to respond to North Korean maneuvers. This could impact decisions about the deployment of U.S. strategic nuclear assets to the peninsula, such as <\/span>Ohio-class submarines<\/span><\/a>, as well as the operationalization of the <\/span>Nuclear Consultative Group<\/span><\/a> (NCG).<\/span><\/p>\n North Korea will perceive these developments as a provocation, potentially leading to <\/span>closer cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang<\/span><\/a> or an uptick in missile tests and military drills in response to allied activities.<\/span><\/p>\n