{"id":2202845,"date":"2023-11-22T19:22:01","date_gmt":"2023-11-22T10:22:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2202845"},"modified":"2023-11-23T17:02:28","modified_gmt":"2023-11-23T08:02:28","slug":"how-suspending-the-inter-korean-military-deal-will-shape-south-korean-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/11\/how-suspending-the-inter-korean-military-deal-will-shape-south-korean-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"How suspending the inter-Korean military deal will shape South Korean policy"},"content":{"rendered":"

North Korea\u2019s successful <\/span>launch of a military spy satellite<\/span><\/a> late Tuesday drew a prompt response from South Korea, as Seoul moved to <\/span>partially suspend<\/span><\/a> an inter-Korean military deal only hours later.<\/span><\/p>\n

The two Koreas concluded the <\/span>Comprehensive Military Agreement<\/span><\/a> (CMA) during a period of thawed relations between the neighbors in 2018 to reduce military tensions and the risk of accidental conflicts. Key components included the creation of buffer zones, a no-fly zone near the border and the dismantling of guard posts along the demilitarized zone (DMZ).<\/span><\/p>\n

But the DPRK\u2019s repeated violations of the agreement and the deterioration of inter-Korean relations have led Seoul to reevaluate its stance, and the decision to suspend part of the deal could open the floodgates to its complete abandonment, with wide-ranging implications for the country\u2019s defense spending, domestic politics and more.<\/span><\/p>\n

SOUTH KOREA\u2019S SHIFT<\/b><\/p>\n

Domestically, South Korea\u2019s move to partially suspend the CMA may strengthen South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s standing among <\/span>those advocating a more assertive response<\/span><\/a> to North Korea\u2019s military actions. However, it also further risks alienating advocates for engaging Pyongyang, widening the divide in South Korean politics.<\/span><\/p>\n

The suspension will further cement the perception that the president has ditched the previous Moon Jae-in administration\u2019s policy of rapprochement, which will likely polarize public opinion and could impact the administration\u2019s popularity if it leads to an increase in tensions.<\/span><\/p>\n

This growing divide in voter sentiment will likely further <\/span>complicate<\/span><\/a> the ruling People Power Party\u2019s strategy ahead of April\u2019s parliamentary elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

In terms of inter-Korean relations, this partial suspension of the CMA is one more nail in the coffin for dialogue or cooperation with the North, which has already been non-existent as Yoon prioritizes the DPRK\u2019s denuclearization under his \u201c<\/span>Audacious Initiative<\/span><\/a>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul\u2019s move will likely compel Pyongyang \u2014 already sensitive to <\/span>strengthening ties<\/span><\/a> between the U.S., South Korea and Japan \u2014 to respond with its own military countermeasures like drills near the border, potentially exacerbating tensions and raising the risk of conflict.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the international stage, the U.S. may view this move as a <\/span>necessary response<\/span><\/a> to North Korean aggressions, aligning with its broader security interests in the region. Japan, facing similar security threats from North Korea, will likely see the move as a positive step toward ensuring regional security.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But China, which prioritizes stability on the Korean Peninsula, will likely view the decision to suspend the CMA with concern, which could negatively impact <\/span>South Korea-China<\/span><\/a> relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

REASSESSING MILITARY STRATEGIES<\/b><\/p>\n

So far, South Korea has only <\/span>announced<\/span><\/a> that it will restore reconnaissance and surveillance activities near the inter-Korean border. In the future, however, it may consider redeploying troops and military assets closer to the <\/span>Military Demarcation Line<\/span><\/a> (MDL), a move away from the de-escalation and demilitarization that were hallmarks of the CMA.<\/span><\/p>\n

The reinstallation of guard posts and fortification of border defenses could follow, potentially increasing the risk of confrontation along the heavily armed border.<\/span><\/p>\n

A crucial aspect of the suspension is its impact on military readiness and surveillance capabilities. South Korea faces challenges monitoring North Korean military activities, particularly with aerial surveillance, and the suspension of the no-fly zone will enable the ROK to deploy more <\/span>sophisticated surveillance systems<\/span><\/a> and increase aerial monitoring activities near the DMZ.<\/span><\/p>\n

Better intelligence on DPRK military movements could, in turn, benefit U.S.-ROK joint planning on how to respond to North Korean maneuvers. This could impact decisions about the deployment of U.S. strategic nuclear assets to the peninsula, such as <\/span>Ohio-class submarines<\/span><\/a>, as well as the operationalization of the <\/span>Nuclear Consultative Group<\/span><\/a> (NCG).<\/span><\/p>\n

North Korea will perceive these developments as a provocation, potentially leading to <\/span>closer cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang<\/span><\/a> or an uptick in missile tests and military drills in response to allied activities.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

USS Carl Vinson, the flagship of Carrier Strike Group 1, arrives in Busan, South Korea, for a scheduled port visit, Nov. 21, 2023 | Image: United States Navy<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

THE COST OF VIGILANCE<\/b><\/p>\n

The decision to partially suspend the CMA also has significant economic ramifications, as it further cements the country\u2019s more hardline approach to the DPRK in a way that will require sustained defense spending.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Yoon administration has already <\/span>proposed a 4.5% increase<\/span><\/a> in its 2024 defense budget \u2014 a significant increase given lower inflation rates, translating to more substantial real-term increments. This uptick in defense spending, amounting to $45 billion (59.59 trillion won), is a direct consequence of heightened security concerns.<\/span><\/p>\n

Suspending the CMA will likely increase pressure on South Korea to expand its military arsenal further. However, boosting its defense budget would come as Yoon has repeatedly pledged to pursue <\/span>\u201cresponsible\u201d fiscal policies<\/span><\/a>, resulting in budget cuts for inter-Korean projects and research and development.<\/span><\/p>\n

The current proposed defense budget primarily focuses on enhancing capabilities to counter North Korea\u2019s nuclear and missile threats. This includes substantial investments in the \u201cthree-axis\u201d defense system.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, the budget encompasses plans for acquiring advanced military hardware such as KSS-III Batch-II submarines and F-35A stealth fighter jets.<\/span><\/p>\n

Increased defense spending will likely catalyze growth in South Korea\u2019s military-industrial sector, potentially leading to advancements in defense technologies. But it will encounter <\/span>significant pushback<\/span><\/a> from the main opposition Democratic Party, which will likely charge that the Yoon administration is jeopardizing inter-Korean relations and increasing the risk of conflict while simultaneously hurting the economy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, while the financial commitment to robust national defense could bolster foreign investor confidence, the market may respond cautiously, given the potential reallocation of resources from other vital sectors.<\/span><\/p>\n

STRATEGIC BALANCING ACT<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s decision to partially suspend the CMA in response to North Korea\u2019s satellite launch will likely set in motion \u2014 or at least further propel \u2014 a series of significant changes across its political, military and economic landscapes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Politically, the move will push the Yoon administration to pursue a more robust defense posture and closer diplomatic engagement with the U.S. and Japan. It will also exacerbate inter-Korean relations, potentially escalating tensions and ending any possibility of high-level discussions between Seoul and Pyongyang until the end of Yoon\u2019s presidency in 2027.<\/span><\/p>\n

The suspension opens the way for a recalibration of South Korea\u2019s defense strategy, such as increased emphasis on bolstering military capabilities near the MDL and enhancing joint operations with the U.S. and Japan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul will also need to move carefully to manage the security situation and avoid unintended consequences from the CMA suspension.<\/span><\/p>\n

Economically, the suspension could require further increases in defense spending as the Yoon administration doubles down on taking a tough line toward Pyongyang. While it promises growth in the military-industrial sector, it also poses challenges to maintaining economic stability and balancing national budget priorities.<\/span><\/p>\n

Looking ahead, the long-term consequences of the CMA suspension will hinge on a balanced approach to these challenges. Key aspects to watch include the evolution of North Korea\u2019s military activities, the effectiveness of U.S.-ROK military cooperation and the impact of increased defense spending on South Korea\u2019s overall economic health.<\/span><\/p>\n

As the situation on the Korean Peninsula continues to evolve, South Korea\u2019s ability to navigate this continually changing environment will be crucial in determining the stability and security of the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

North Korea\u2019s successful launch of a military spy satellite late Tuesday drew a prompt response from South Korea, as Seoul moved to partially suspend an inter-Korean military deal only hours later. The two Koreas concluded the Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA) during a period of thawed relations between the neighbors in 2018 to reduce military tensions […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2202846,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,28],"class_list":["post-2202845","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nHow suspending the inter-Korean military deal will shape South Korean policy - Korea Pro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/11\/how-suspending-the-inter-korean-military-deal-will-shape-south-korean-policy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How suspending the inter-Korean military deal will shape South Korean policy - Korea Pro\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"North Korea\u2019s successful launch of a military spy satellite late Tuesday drew a prompt response from South Korea, as Seoul moved to partially suspend an inter-Korean military deal only hours later. 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