{"id":2202768,"date":"2023-11-17T16:11:35","date_gmt":"2023-11-17T07:11:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2202768"},"modified":"2023-11-20T17:11:20","modified_gmt":"2023-11-20T08:11:20","slug":"south-korea-faces-dilemma-after-us-fails-to-deliver-own-watered-down-trade-pact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/11\/south-korea-faces-dilemma-after-us-fails-to-deliver-own-watered-down-trade-pact\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea faces dilemma after US fails to deliver own watered-down trade pact"},"content":{"rendered":"

The U.S. failed to deliver on its own commitment to the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) this week, a serious blow to its efforts to engage economically in Asia and with South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

This setback <\/span>emerged<\/span><\/a> in San Francisco, where the 14 nations involved in IPEF made headway on some fronts, including supply chain resilience and anti-corruption measures. Yet they hit a wall on critical issues such as the regulation of data flows and goods produced through forced labor.<\/span><\/p>\n

In particular, the so-called <\/span>trade pillar<\/span><\/a> of IPEF, a cornerstone of the framework, appears to be dead.<\/span><\/p>\n

The breakdown will put further pressure on South Korea and other regional leaders to look for alternatives without the U.S. \u2014 and thereby provide opportunities for China.<\/span><\/p>\n

AMBITIONS AND REALITIES<\/b><\/p>\n

Launched by U.S. President Joe Biden in May 2022, IPEF was envisioned as the key economic component of America\u2019s <\/span>Indo-Pacific strategy<\/span><\/a>, which aimed to \u201cmore firmly anchor the United States in the Indo-Pacific\u2026 the most dynamic region in the world.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This initiative followed recognition in Washington that the U.S. withdrawal <\/span>from the Trans-Pacific Partnership<\/span><\/a> (TPP) under President Donald Trump in 2017 had left its economic engagement in Asia lagging way behind its security commitments.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Biden administration worked hard to sign up 14 nations, including South Korea, Japan, India and Australia, for a new economic framework, claiming that \u201cexpanding U.S. economic leadership in the region is good for American workers and business.\u201d These countries shaped the framework across four areas: trade, supply chains, a clean economy emphasizing decarbonization and a fair economy focused on anti-corruption and tax reforms.<\/span><\/p>\n

Notably absent was <\/span>China<\/span><\/a>, highlighting the geopolitical undercurrents driving the initiative.<\/span><\/p>\n

From the outset, the IPEF was met with skepticism around the region, since it <\/span>explicitly excluded<\/span><\/a> any discussion of tariff reductions \u2014 the bread and butter of trade agreements.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the one hand, this was helpful for enticing traditional trade skeptics like India and Indonesia to sign on. <\/span>But the lack of tangible incentives in the form of additional trade access raised doubts about the feasibility of convincing<\/span> partner nations to undertake painful reforms in areas like labor standards and environmental protection.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

U.S. President Joe Biden (bottom right) and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken (bottom left) attend an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) meeting in May 2022. | Image: Office of the United States Trade Representative<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

REGIONAL RESPONSES<\/b><\/p>\n

Supporters of economic integration such as South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore fell in behind the IPEF, albeit more out of a sense of obligation than enthusiasm. Despite its lack of ambition, they hoped that it would deliver incremental benefits for business.<\/span><\/p>\n

Japan had already <\/span>taken steps without the U.S.<\/span><\/a> by transforming the TPP into the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and was instrumental in welcoming <\/span>the U.K. as its newest member<\/span><\/a> in July.<\/span><\/p>\n

The CPTPP, regarded as a more comprehensive and higher quality trade agreement compared to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), caught China\u2019s eye. It <\/span>expressed<\/span><\/a> its interest in joining the CPTPP in Sept. 2021.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Taiwan and four other economies have also applied to join, with South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines signaling interest.<\/span><\/p>\n

The U.S. failure to conclude IPEF will reinforce doubts around the region about America\u2019s commitment to economic engagement. IPEF was already seen as a heavily watered-down form of trade agreement.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If the U.S., under an administration avowed to fortify ties with regional friends and allies, fails to meet even the low bar it has set itself, this raises questions about what other countries can expect from the U.S. on trade, whether under Democratic or Republican leadership.<\/span><\/p>\n

In contrast, China is likely to see this as an advantageous opening to showcase its own readiness for trade partnerships and further push its bid for inclusion in the CPTPP.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

STRATEGIC CALCULATIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

Japan<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>the U.K.<\/span><\/a>, the largest members of the CPTPP, appear to be opposed to Chinese membership. Nations like Singapore and New Zealand are open to the prospect, while other Southeast Asian and Latin American members are likely to be supportive.<\/span><\/p>\n

Australia, which had been among those most hostile to Chinese membership, appears to have moderated its position after <\/span>outright dismissing<\/span><\/a> the idea last year.\u00a0 Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, on a visit to Beijing last week, <\/span>did not rule out<\/span><\/a> the possibility of China joining if it meets the high standards of admission.<\/span><\/p>\n

The views of Canada and Mexico are also important, considering the <\/span>\u201cpoison pill\u201d clause<\/span><\/a> in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), designed to prevent signatories from entering into free trade agreements with \u201cnon-market\u201d countries. The failure of the IPEF negotiations is likely to amplify the pressure on CPTPP members to consider China\u2019s membership seriously.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s indecision regarding the CPTPP reflects its own domestic balancing act. The Moon Jae-In administration, despite <\/span>stating it was keen to join<\/span><\/a>, did not do so, hindered by domestic concerns and unease in collaborating with Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

The succeeding Yoon Suk-yeol administration, while <\/span>improving ties with Japan<\/span><\/a>, remains hesitant about joining the CPTPP, largely influenced by its focus on maintaining strong U.S. relations and hopes pinned on the <\/span>IPEF<\/span><\/a> as a beneficial interim measure.<\/span><\/p>\n

The failure to conclude a substantive deal around IPEF will leave South Korea, along with other regional partners, disappointed and considering their options.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Samsung workers pose with semiconductors on June 30, 2022. | Image: Samsung<\/p><\/div>\n

CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea already finds itself in a precarious position amid escalating U.S.-China tensions. Last month, Seoul appeared to resolve one concern by convincing Washington to permit Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to <\/span>supply their Chinese facilities<\/span><\/a> with essential manufacturing equipment.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, this relief was short-lived: This week U.S. Senator Joe Manchin raised concerns about Chinese battery manufacturers forming joint ventures in South Korea and potentially obtaining access to U.S. electric vehicle tax credits.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the U.S., the belief that trade liberalization has disadvantaged American workers while benefiting China is embedded across the political spectrum, making it hard for either party to advocate for international trade even if couched in terms of cooperation rather than liberalization. Biden\u2019s emphasis on domestic manufacturing and industry subsidies has amplified regional fears that the U.S. is lapsing into protectionism.<\/span><\/p>\n

A reversal in the U.S. view on digital trade appears to have prevented it from reaching an agreement on IPEF as a whole.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Until last month, the U.S. had championed policies to ensure the unrestricted flow of data across borders and opposed mandatory data localization or disclosure of software source codes.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, in late October, the U.S. suddenly withdrew support for establishing digital trade rules at the World Trade Organization.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a digital powerhouse, South Korea strongly advocates for standardized international rules governing digital trade. It has applied to join the <\/span>Digital Economic Partnership Agreement<\/span><\/a> alongside Singapore and New Zealand, as has China.<\/span><\/p>\n

This situation is reminiscent of past U.S. reversals in trade policy, notably when Trump threatened to <\/span>scrap the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement<\/span><\/a> in 2017, only to later settle for a <\/span>minor renegotiation<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

But this time it is not clear that the U.S. will be able to return to the table any time soon.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For South Korea and other nations in the region, the U.S. inability to follow through with IPEF is a diplomatic embarrassment for Washington. It also substantially exacerbates the challenge of advancing regional economic engagement, managing pressure from China, accommodating trade skeptics like India and defending rules-based trade.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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