{"id":2202648,"date":"2023-11-06T15:27:18","date_gmt":"2023-11-06T06:27:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2202648"},"modified":"2023-11-06T15:27:18","modified_gmt":"2023-11-06T06:27:18","slug":"why-chinas-graphite-control-impacts-south-koreas-battery-landscape","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/11\/why-chinas-graphite-control-impacts-south-koreas-battery-landscape\/","title":{"rendered":"Why China\u2019s graphite control impacts South Korea\u2019s battery landscape"},"content":{"rendered":"

Amid escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S., the <\/span>refined graphite market<\/span><\/a>, crucial for lithium-ion batteries, emerges as a new point of contention. As a major producer of such batteries, South Korea finds itself at the crossroads of these trade disputes. This delicate position is magnified by China’s dominant role, producing about 90% of the world\u2019s refined graphite.<\/span><\/p>\n

Recent <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> analysis points to a notable shift in China\u2019s export control strategies. Moving from traditionally reactive measures, China now appears to be adopting a more proactive stance, possibly as a deterrence measure.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the new graphite export controls might not directly target South Korea, the implications are clear. Any restrictions China imposes could send ripples across the globe, potentially impacting major stakeholders like South Korea and even aspects of the U.S. defense sector.<\/span><\/p>\n

Considering China\u2019s challenges with graphite oversupply, the situation takes on added complexity. Producers may soon look to diversify their sources away from China, drawn by its low prices. As these changes take root, unfolding dynamics will have significant implications, with either battery manufacturers or their suppliers likely to bear the brunt of these shifts.<\/span><\/p>\n

SHIFTING TRADE DYNAMICS<\/b><\/p>\n

Global trade, historically characterized by an open flow occasionally interrupted by tariffs, has taken a turn. Previously, most trade restrictions, whether unilateral or multilateral, predominantly focused on dual-use technologies \u2014 items with civilian and military applications \u2014 and arms.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, that narrative has shifted dramatically since 2017. The U.S. and China have found themselves embroiled in a <\/span>trade war<\/span><\/a>. At the heart of this conflict lie industries pivotal to the future: computing, energy storage and many other sectors, each carrying profound national security implications for both nations.<\/span><\/p>\n

The ripple effects of this standoff have <\/span>impacted U.S. allies and partners<\/span><\/a> as they find their trade, notably in semiconductors and related equipment, under the shadow of U.S. export regulations. Not to be outdone, Beijing has rolled out its own set of licensing standards, encompassing not just semiconductors but the rapidly evolving battery sector.<\/span><\/p>\n

Amid these global trade shifts, South Korea has positioned itself as an essential player. Its growing investments in the U.S. highlight Washington\u2019s ambition to re-shore or friend-shore critical industries away from Beijing. This strategic pivot heavily leans on giants like SK Hynix in semiconductors, Hyundai in automotive and LG Chem in battery production.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol with U.S. President Joe Biden in May. 2022<\/a> (left) and with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Nov. 2022<\/a> (right) | Image: ROK Presidential Office (edited by Korea Pro<\/em>)<\/p><\/div>\n

GRAPHITE POWER PLAY<\/b><\/p>\n

China, which has so far done little to respond to U.S. attempts to restructure global supply chains, has lately shown signs of flexing its muscles. Beijing put in place export licensing requirements for <\/span>gallium and germanium<\/span><\/a> \u2014 metals essential to semiconductor production \u2014 in September. The move didn\u2019t stop there; just last month, China <\/span>introduced<\/span><\/a> similar stipulations for graphite.<\/span><\/p>\n

The objective behind U.S. export controls is clear-cut: preventing Chinese semiconductor enterprises from reaching technological parity with their U.S. and other international counterparts. The U.S. approach is preemptive and active \u2014 outlining specific equipment that Chinese entities cannot purchase.<\/span><\/p>\n

In contrast, China\u2019s tactics are passive and designed to deter. China seeks to signal to others that if they cross a certain line in adhering to U.S. export constraints, there will be repercussions.<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s recent regulations don\u2019t immediately or directly impede graphite exports. Instead, they insinuate potential penalties to nations that might displease Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Choosing graphite as the centerpiece of this strategy is astute. Its pivotal role in battery production, coupled with China\u2019s command of about <\/span>90%<\/span><\/a> of the global supply, gives Beijing a significant leverage point. But it\u2019s a double-edged sword: while controlling such a high-demand commodity could throttle external industries, including South Korea, it could also hurt Chinese producers.<\/span><\/p>\n

Reacting to this, South Korean battery manufacturers are exploring alternatives. They\u2019re eyeing natural graphite reserves in places like Mozambique and bringing forward the opening of synthetic production facilities slated to open in the next 12 months. The latter facility could <\/span>meet<\/span><\/a> about 20% of South Korea\u2019s demand.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, a significant switch in graphite sources is not without challenges. The abundance of cheap Chinese graphite has kept prices low. Diversifying supply might ensure availability, but it could also escalate costs. Given that graphite anode accounts for about <\/span>5 to 15%<\/span><\/a> of the cost of an electric vehicle battery, consumers can expect to see a price uptick.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turning to historical precedents could shed light on these shifting dynamics.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Seoul’s Myeongdong shopping district in Aug. 2020. | Image: Jeon Han (Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism via Flickr<\/a>)<\/p><\/div>\n

NAVIGATING WEAPONIZED INTERDEPENDENCE<\/b><\/p>\n

Before the onset of the Sino-U.S. trade skirmishes initiated by the Trump administration, there were indications that trade and investment ties could be strategically deployed as levers of power.<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s record of leveraging its economic might to influence other countries isn\u2019t new, especially regarding U.S. allies. A notable example is South Korea\u2019s 2016 announcement to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery. The decision led to a <\/span>swift retaliation<\/span><\/a> by China: a halt in group tours to South Korea. This move struck at the heart of South Korea\u2019s tourism sector, which heavily relied on Chinese visitors.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another example was the Korea-Japan standoff rooted in historical disputes. Following landmark judgments related to the responsibilities of Japanese firms tied to forced Korean labor during World War II, Tokyo imposed <\/span>export curbs on essential materials<\/span><\/a> for semiconductor production. As a result, South Korean businesses grappled with challenges in sourcing these crucial inputs after Japan removed them from its white list of trusted trade partners.<\/span><\/p>\n

These episodes, although unique, offer insights into the potential repercussions of China\u2019s graphite trade curbs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Post-THAAD sanctions still cast their shadow on South Korea\u2019s tourism landscape. Even though China has resumed group tours, the further impact of COVID-19 and China\u2019s slow economic recovery has meant that the Chinese visitor count has <\/span>yet to bounce back<\/span><\/a> to pre-2016 figures.<\/span><\/p>\n

Efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese tourists have borne fruit, but the sector <\/span>still feels the absence<\/span><\/a> of Chinese footfall. The spillover even forced Lotte, a South Korean retail giant, to exit from the Chinese market amid <\/span>speculations<\/span><\/a> of its struggles linked to Chinese boycotts.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the flip side, Japan\u2019s export restrictions led to innovations and investments in material production. Reports even <\/span>suggest<\/span><\/a> that Japan\u2019s decision to relax its restrictions earlier this year would have a limited impact on the industry.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the current dynamics hint at Seoul potentially moving toward diversifying graphite production away from China, it\u2019s not without hurdles. China\u2019s dominant market position, especially considering graphite\u2019s pivotal role in energy storage, is undeniable.<\/span><\/p>\n

But diversification comes with its own challenges, like the possibility of oversupply and rising production costs \u2014 issues that both Chinese and global producers might soon confront.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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