{"id":2202557,"date":"2023-10-24T16:53:41","date_gmt":"2023-10-24T07:53:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2202557"},"modified":"2023-10-25T17:01:46","modified_gmt":"2023-10-25T08:01:46","slug":"why-a-local-by-election-in-seoul-spells-trouble-for-yoon-suk-yeol-administration","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/10\/why-a-local-by-election-in-seoul-spells-trouble-for-yoon-suk-yeol-administration\/","title":{"rendered":"Why a local by-election in Seoul spells trouble for Yoon Suk-yeol administration"},"content":{"rendered":"

The recent <\/span>by-election<\/span><\/a> for the district chief in Seoul\u2019s Gangseo District on Oct. 11 has emerged as a focal point of national attention, marking a significant political shift. In what would have usually been a low-profile, local contest, the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) secured a <\/span>resounding victory<\/span><\/a>, capturing the seat with a substantial 17-point lead. This spotlight on a district-level election highlights perceived implications for the broader political landscape in South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Positioned midway through President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s five-year term, the Gangseo District by-election holds considerable weight as a predictor for the general elections slated for April 2024. The results indicate a fracture in the coalition that initially carried Yoon to the presidency.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon\u2019s electoral success had relied on support from a broad demographic group, including <\/span>young men in their 20s and 30s<\/span><\/a>, seniors aged 60 and over, and a segment of Seoul\u2019s <\/span>middle class<\/span><\/a> that had grown weary of <\/span>tax pressures<\/span><\/a> during the previous Moon Jae-in administration.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the by-election has brought a significant shift to light. There\u2019s a discernible distancing of young adults and the middle class from Yoon and the ruling People Power Party (PPP).<\/span><\/p>\n

This divergence is particularly striking compared to the <\/span>2022 presidential election figures<\/span><\/a>, where Yoon captured 45.5% of the vote in the 20s age bracket and 48.1% among those in their 30s. In contrast, Kim Tae-woo, the PPP candidate in this by-election, managed only <\/span>34.4% and 31.1%<\/span><\/a> from these groups, respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n

This demographic realignment could have profound implications. The unique coalition that gave Yoon the edge to win the presidency appears to be faltering, with younger voters now tilting toward the DP.<\/span><\/p>\n

Facing this shift, the PPP confronts the potential redefinition of its identity, increasingly seen as a party catering more to the elderly. If it solidifies, this change threatens to resonate beyond local politics, shaping the forthcoming parliamentary elections and, by extension, the future of Yoon\u2019s presidency and South Korea\u2019s political dynamics.<\/span><\/p>\n

Recent opinion polls paint a concerning picture for the ruling party, suggesting a dwindling support base as the 2024 general elections approach. A <\/span>Gallup Korea poll in June<\/span><\/a> projected 35% of respondents expressing their intention to vote for the PPP and 32% leaning toward the DP \u2014 a marginal 3% lead.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, sentiments had significantly shifted by October. <\/span>Recent polls<\/span><\/a> indicate a growing preference for the opposition, with 33% of respondents supporting the ruling party and 34% favoring the opposition.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung presides over a party meeting for the first time since his hunger strike, Oct. 23, 2023 | Image: Democratic Party of Korea<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

OPPOSITION CONTROL<\/b><\/p>\n

During the 2020 parliamentary elections, the DP clinched a historic victory, securing <\/span>180 seats<\/span><\/a> in South Korea\u2019s 300-seat unicameral legislature, while the United Future Party \u2014 the PPP\u2019s previous incarnation \u2014 won only 103 seats.<\/span><\/p>\n

With growing discontent directed at the Yoon administration, recent polls indicate that it is becoming increasingly plausible that the DP might replicate its previous success, potentially securing a decisive victory in the upcoming parliamentary election.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the DP succeeds in maintaining control over the National Assembly, Yoon would find himself in a historically challenging position, being the first South Korean president to serve his entire term with the legislative chamber under the opposition\u2019s control. This unique political dynamic could have profound implications for his domestic and foreign policy agendas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Domestically, Yoon\u2019s ability to pass new legislation or make significant changes to existing laws would be considerably constrained.<\/span><\/p>\n

For instance, Yoon\u2019s desire to implement substantial <\/span>corporate tax breaks<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>simplify the country\u2019s tax bracket system<\/span><\/a> clashes with the opposition\u2019s stance. The DP has previously resisted similar proposals, arguing that such tax cuts would disproportionately favor major corporations and the affluent. This issue became particularly contentious during negotiations over the <\/span>Korean CHIPS Act<\/span><\/a> and the corporate tax rate discussions.<\/span><\/p>\n

In this context, any domestic policy or legislative initiative from Yoon\u2019s office would require substantial compromise with an opposition-majority legislature. This dynamic would likely extend beyond tax policy to encompass the entirety of Yoon\u2019s <\/span>domestic agenda<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

In terms of foreign policy, while the South Korean president traditionally holds more leeway, an opposition-led National Assembly could still exert significant influence. To ensure that his foreign policy initiatives would survive his term in office, Yoon might lean into mechanisms that do not mandate legislative approval, such as continuing to embed South Korea in international commitments that transcend internal political shifts.<\/span><\/p>\n

One such approach could involve amplifying <\/span>trilateral military exercises<\/span><\/a> with the U.S. and Japan. The intensification of such trilateral drills would cement the three countries\u2019 mutual defense policies and might prove politically challenging for the DP or subsequent administrations to unravel.<\/span><\/p>\n

Concurrently, Yoon could utilize instruments of soft commitment, such as the <\/span>Washington Declaration<\/span><\/a>. While they do not possess the binding force of treaties, these declarations establish a framework of international expectation. Backtracking on such prominent pledges could inflict severe diplomatic fallout, effectively locking in policy directions.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, these tactics are not without risk. The escalation of military exercises has already <\/span>stoked regional tensions<\/span><\/a>, and the continuation of such a policy could result in economic pushback from regional neighbors such as China.<\/span><\/p>\n

CONSERVATIVE CHALLENGES<\/b><\/p>\n

In South Korea\u2019s political dynamics, the sitting president\u2019s approval rating often serves as an important metric in forecasting the potential outcomes of general elections. <\/span>Current data<\/span><\/a> indicates a challenging scenario for Yoon, with approval ratings at 30%.<\/span><\/p>\n

The administration\u2019s support base appears to have shifted, primarily comprising conservative loyalists and an older demographic. However, even within conservative circles, support for Yoon is not unanimous; surveys indicate that his endorsement among PPP supporters is approximately <\/span>69%<\/span><\/a>, contrasting with the <\/span>92%<\/span><\/a> opposition within the DP.<\/span><\/p>\n

This discrepancy is notable and suggests a potential divergence in the political unity that typically characterizes party-aligned voters.<\/span><\/p>\n

While party approval ratings suggest a relative balance, this apparent statistical equilibrium might not fully encapsulate the complexity of the electorate’s stance. A <\/span>slight preference for the opposition<\/span><\/a> is observable among independents, who comprise 26% of the political landscape, particularly in regions with a history of progressive voting patterns, such as Jeolla Province.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the general election scheduled for six months from now, a continued trend of diminishing support could present significant challenges for the ruling party, potentially limiting the administration\u2019s legislative influence and executive efficacy.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the context of these developments, the forthcoming months are critical for the Yoon administration, as the political momentum established during this period could define the overall impact and historical perception of Yoon\u2019s presidency.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The recent by-election for the district chief in Seoul\u2019s Gangseo District on Oct. 11 has emerged as a focal point of national attention, marking a significant political shift. In what would have usually been a low-profile, local contest, the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) secured a resounding victory, capturing the seat with a substantial 17-point […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2202558,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[27],"class_list":["post-2202557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-domestic-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy a local by-election in Seoul spells trouble for Yoon Suk-yeol administration - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/10\/why-a-local-by-election-in-seoul-spells-trouble-for-yoon-suk-yeol-administration\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why a local by-election in Seoul spells trouble for Yoon Suk-yeol administration - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The recent by-election for the district chief in Seoul\u2019s Gangseo District on Oct. 11 has emerged as a focal point of national attention, marking a significant political shift. 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