{"id":2202557,"date":"2023-10-24T16:53:41","date_gmt":"2023-10-24T07:53:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2202557"},"modified":"2023-10-25T17:01:46","modified_gmt":"2023-10-25T08:01:46","slug":"why-a-local-by-election-in-seoul-spells-trouble-for-yoon-suk-yeol-administration","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/10\/why-a-local-by-election-in-seoul-spells-trouble-for-yoon-suk-yeol-administration\/","title":{"rendered":"Why a local by-election in Seoul spells trouble for Yoon Suk-yeol administration"},"content":{"rendered":"
The recent <\/span>by-election<\/span><\/a> for the district chief in Seoul\u2019s Gangseo District on Oct. 11 has emerged as a focal point of national attention, marking a significant political shift. In what would have usually been a low-profile, local contest, the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) secured a <\/span>resounding victory<\/span><\/a>, capturing the seat with a substantial 17-point lead. This spotlight on a district-level election highlights perceived implications for the broader political landscape in South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n Positioned midway through President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s five-year term, the Gangseo District by-election holds considerable weight as a predictor for the general elections slated for April 2024. The results indicate a fracture in the coalition that initially carried Yoon to the presidency.<\/span><\/p>\n Yoon\u2019s electoral success had relied on support from a broad demographic group, including <\/span>young men in their 20s and 30s<\/span><\/a>, seniors aged 60 and over, and a segment of Seoul\u2019s <\/span>middle class<\/span><\/a> that had grown weary of <\/span>tax pressures<\/span><\/a> during the previous Moon Jae-in administration.<\/span><\/p>\n However, the by-election has brought a significant shift to light. There\u2019s a discernible distancing of young adults and the middle class from Yoon and the ruling People Power Party (PPP).<\/span><\/p>\n This divergence is particularly striking compared to the <\/span>2022 presidential election figures<\/span><\/a>, where Yoon captured 45.5% of the vote in the 20s age bracket and 48.1% among those in their 30s. In contrast, Kim Tae-woo, the PPP candidate in this by-election, managed only <\/span>34.4% and 31.1%<\/span><\/a> from these groups, respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n This demographic realignment could have profound implications. The unique coalition that gave Yoon the edge to win the presidency appears to be faltering, with younger voters now tilting toward the DP.<\/span><\/p>\n Facing this shift, the PPP confronts the potential redefinition of its identity, increasingly seen as a party catering more to the elderly. If it solidifies, this change threatens to resonate beyond local politics, shaping the forthcoming parliamentary elections and, by extension, the future of Yoon\u2019s presidency and South Korea\u2019s political dynamics.<\/span><\/p>\n Recent opinion polls paint a concerning picture for the ruling party, suggesting a dwindling support base as the 2024 general elections approach. A <\/span>Gallup Korea poll in June<\/span><\/a> projected 35% of respondents expressing their intention to vote for the PPP and 32% leaning toward the DP \u2014 a marginal 3% lead.<\/span><\/p>\n However, sentiments had significantly shifted by October. <\/span>Recent polls<\/span><\/a> indicate a growing preference for the opposition, with 33% of respondents supporting the ruling party and 34% favoring the opposition.<\/span><\/p>\n