{"id":2202457,"date":"2023-10-10T17:00:42","date_gmt":"2023-10-10T08:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2202457"},"modified":"2023-10-11T17:02:53","modified_gmt":"2023-10-11T08:02:53","slug":"renewed-diplomacy-summitry-amid-tensions-between-china-south-korea-and-japan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/10\/renewed-diplomacy-summitry-amid-tensions-between-china-south-korea-and-japan\/","title":{"rendered":"Renewed diplomacy: Summitry amid tensions between China, South Korea and Japan"},"content":{"rendered":"

The diplomatic stage witnessed a crucial re-engagement on Sept. 26 as representatives from China, Japan and the ROK agreed to reconvene their trilateral summit for the first time since 2019. Amid China\u2019s <\/span>mounting criticisms<\/span><\/a> toward ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol and its decision to <\/span>ban Japanese seafood<\/span><\/a> in light of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater release, this renewed dialogue signals a marked change in Beijing\u2019s diplomatic stance.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the geopolitical landscape presents challenges, with rising regional tensions and shifting allegiances, making the outcomes of this trilateral engagement highly consequential for the balance of power in East Asia.<\/span><\/p>\n

BEIJING\u2019S CHANGING CALCULUS<\/b><\/p>\n

China has historically capitalized on Japan and South Korea\u2019s reliance on its markets and influence over North Korea. In return, China secured significant concessions in the past decade. Notably, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe <\/span>acknowledged<\/span><\/a> that China \u201chas a case\u201d to the disputed Senkaku Islands, and former South Korean President Moon Jae-in announced the \u201c<\/span>Three Nos<\/span><\/a>\u201d policy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet as tensions with China and North Korea mounted, the ROK and Japan gravitated toward the U.S. While Japan increased its <\/span>military budget<\/span><\/a> considerably in late 2022, South Korea <\/span>consented<\/span><\/a> to deploying American submarines equipped with nuclear weapons around the Korean Peninsula in April.<\/span><\/p>\n

In response to these strategic changes, China expressed stern disapproval. For instance, in June, the Chinese ambassador to South Korea <\/span>publicly warned<\/span><\/a> pro-U.S. South Korean officials not to \u201cbet against\u201d China. This admonition, perceived by many in South Korea as an implicit threat, underscores the escalating tensions.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, China\u2019s confrontational tactics haven\u2019t yielded the desired outcomes. South Korea\u2019s Yoon remains skeptical of Beijing\u2019s intentions. He highlighted the <\/span>lukewarm reception<\/span><\/a> his predecessor, Moon, received in China during his 2017 state visit despite Moon\u2019s concessions.<\/span><\/p>\n

The strategic realignments of South Korea and Japan with the U.S. culminated in the <\/span>Camp David trilateral summit<\/span><\/a> in August. This event underscored the limitations of China\u2019s diplomatic strategies, prompting Beijing to reconsider its deteriorating ties with the ROK and Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

WANING INFLUENCE<\/b><\/p>\n

China\u2019s principal negotiation tools, notably trade and its dominance over North Korea, are witnessing a decline in their efficacy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Recent data from September indicates a drop in South Korean exports to China by <\/span>17.6%<\/span><\/a> compared to the previous year. In contrast, exports to the U.S. have seen an 8.5% growth. Further, despite its <\/span>exemption<\/span><\/a> from U.S. chip export restrictions to China, South Korea <\/span>hasn\u2019t aggressively capitalized<\/span><\/a> on Beijing\u2019s offers to seize market share from American chip producers. This trend underscores South Korea\u2019s emerging economic autonomy from China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, China\u2019s economic prospects have taken a <\/span>downturn<\/span><\/a> in recent months, implying that South Korea could face fewer repercussions from distancing itself from Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the geopolitical front, there\u2019s a noticeable tilt of North Korea toward Russia. This pivot, whether attributed to China\u2019s <\/span>diminished influence<\/span><\/a> or Russia\u2019s enhanced financial offerings, poses challenges for Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

North Korea serves as a <\/span>key asset<\/span><\/a> in China\u2019s diplomatic interactions with the U.S., South Korea and Japan. A commanding influence over Pyongyang grants Beijing significant leverage, especially when pursuing strengthened ties with the U.S. Hence, a North Korean realignment away from China could diminish incentives for the U.S. and its allies to negotiate with Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, despite <\/span>visual displays<\/span><\/a> of camaraderie between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, underlying tensions in Sino-Russian relations persist. Notably, China\u2019s territorial claims on <\/span>Russian territories<\/span><\/a>, its <\/span>restrained response<\/span><\/a> to Moscow\u2019s political maneuvers and the <\/span>diplomatic fallout<\/span><\/a> stemming from its non-condemnation of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine highlight this strain. Speculations are also rife about Beijing\u2019s <\/span>dissatisfaction<\/span><\/a> with Moscow\u2019s protracted conflict in Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given this backdrop, Russia might propose collaboration on the North Korean front as a bargaining chip for favorable conditions in Western peace negotiations. Such a move could sideline China, potentially diminishing its regional influence.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet in Moscow, March 21, 2023 | Image: Kremlin<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

YOON\u2019S STRATEGIC PLAY<\/b><\/p>\n

Like other nations, China\u2019s leadership deploys diplomacy as a tool to bolster its international and domestic standing. China often portrays itself as a <\/span>global mediator<\/span><\/a>, a nod to its historical position as the Middle Kingdom. Earlier this year, Xi cemented this image by playing a pivotal role in brokering a <\/span>peace agreement<\/span><\/a> between Saudi Arabia and Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, recent domestic challenges and international setbacks have pushed Xi into a defensive posture. Some analysts suggest an intense <\/span>power struggle<\/span><\/a> is brewing in Beijing, compounded by a stagnant economy. As a result, while the idea for the trilateral summit seems to have been <\/span>Yoon\u2019s brainchild<\/span><\/a>, it\u2019s plausible that Xi embraced the opportunity.<\/span><\/p>\n

In light of these dynamics, Yoon has strategically positioned South Korea economically and politically. He now stands poised to negotiate ROK-China relations from a vantage point of strength.<\/span><\/p>\n

For China, enhancing its domestic image is an immediate benefit of the summit. However, in the long run, South Korea also finds value in rekindling its dialogue with Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Firstly, while strengthening ties with the U.S. serves South Korea\u2019s interests in its dealings with China, managing regional tensions benefits all parties. Domestically for Yoon, balancing between Washington and Beijing is essential. Despite China\u2019s unpopularity among South Korean voters, there is a growing <\/span>wariness of overreliance<\/span><\/a> on the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

Secondly, even as South Korea and Japan endeavor to decrease their economic reliance on China, they remain <\/span>vulnerable<\/span><\/a> to any potential Chinese economic downturn \u2014 more so than the U.S. And although China doesn\u2019t possess the capacity to boost South Korea\u2019s economy dramatically, there are sectors where enhancing trade could be mutually beneficial.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lastly, China\u2019s sway over North Korea will not likely wane soon. A dual approach, blending diplomacy with Beijing and deterrence through Washington, promises a more stable Korean Peninsula than leaning solely on one strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

LIKELY SUMMIT OUTCOMES<\/b><\/p>\n

Restoring dialogue among the ROK, China and Japan offers potential benefits, though expectations for the summit\u2019s outcomes will likely be limited.<\/span><\/p>\n

One focal point is North Korea\u2019s potential arms sales to Russia, which notably <\/span>alarm<\/span><\/a> the ROK and Japan. While the depth of Russia-China ties remains uncertain, Beijing is <\/span>unlikely to pressure<\/span><\/a> North Korea or Russia to call off the arms sales.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Instead, China might suggest facilitating talks involving the two Koreas and possibly Japan. This aligns with Xi\u2019s long-term interest in regional leadership and reducing American influence. However, North Korea\u2019s receptiveness to such discussions remains uncertain.<\/span><\/p>\n

Major economic breakthroughs appear unlikely at the upcoming summit. However, Seoul may aim to ease <\/span>chip trade tensions<\/span><\/a> with China. Notably, the U.S. choice to permit semiconductor manufacturing equipment exports to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix facilities in China without additional approvals opens a pathway for Seoul to discuss collaboration with Beijing regarding the supply of Korean chips and China\u2019s sustained provision of semiconductor components, particularly <\/span>raw materials<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>integrated circuits<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, Seoul could seek to <\/span>increase exports<\/span><\/a> to China in sectors like automobiles and electronics and to attract more <\/span>Chinese tourists<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

In its bid to reinvigorate its economy and dilute the U.S.-ROK-Japan partnership, China will likely push for more substantial concessions, such as increased South Korean investment in China and for the ROK to distance itself from the <\/span>Quadrilateral Security Dialogue<\/span><\/a>. But the scale tilts in favor of Seoul and Tokyo regarding summit urgency. If Beijing genuinely aims for improved ties with its neighbors, patience and sustained effort will be essential.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The diplomatic stage witnessed a crucial re-engagement on Sept. 26 as representatives from China, Japan and the ROK agreed to reconvene their trilateral summit for the first time since 2019. 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