{"id":2202452,"date":"2023-10-09T18:23:46","date_gmt":"2023-10-09T09:23:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2202452"},"modified":"2023-10-10T17:07:08","modified_gmt":"2023-10-10T08:07:08","slug":"what-the-hamas-attacks-against-israel-mean-for-south-korea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/10\/what-the-hamas-attacks-against-israel-mean-for-south-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"What the Hamas attacks against Israel mean for South Korea"},"content":{"rendered":"

The U.S.-Iran deal involving the <\/span>release of billions in frozen assets<\/span><\/a> and Hamas\u2019 ongoing attack against Israel have implications that stretch beyond their immediate geographic confines.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea, under President Yoon Suk-yeol, has made foreign policy decisions that <\/span>align more closely with U.S. interests<\/span><\/a>. This approach brings clear advantages but narrows Seoul\u2019s options with other players in the region such as <\/span>China<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Russia<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>North Korea<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

As part of a deal to free a number of American prisoners, South Korea agreed to transfer $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets to accounts in Qatar. While the Biden administration, which brokered the deal, stipulated that these funds be used <\/span>solely for humanitarian purposes<\/span><\/a> and promised oversight on their usage, Hamas\u2019 wide-scale attack against civilians and military targets alike raise concerns about Iranian support and the potential utilization of the recently released funds.<\/span><\/p>\n

The militant group <\/span>openly credited Tehran<\/span><\/a> for its support in the attacks, which have killed hundreds so far. Reports also suggest the involvement of another Iran-backed group, <\/span>Hezbollah<\/span><\/a>, in planning the attack.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the assurances that the released funds would be used for non-military purposes, U.S. Republican senators have raised <\/span>questions and speculations<\/span><\/a> regarding the potential indirect financing of these attacks via the released assets.<\/span><\/p>\n

For South Korea, the repercussions of these events are multifaceted. They involve not just the immediate economic implications of potential disruptions in energy supplies or trade routes but also the broader geopolitical shifts that could influence diplomatic and security decisions in the future.<\/span><\/p>\n

YOON\u2019S FOREIGN POLICY<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea has expanded <\/span>diplomatic and trade<\/span><\/a> with the Middle East, which has supplied much of the country\u2019s energy needs. Some <\/span>60% of its oil<\/span><\/a> comes from the region, making Iran and other oil states critical drivers of ROK economic growth.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While the direct fallout of events in the Middle East might appear distant from East Asia, intertwined geopolitics could spell potential repercussions for South Korea\u2019s strategic interests, particularly as it seeks to limit the daylight between it and the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s participation in the <\/span>Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity<\/span><\/a>, its <\/span>humanitarian assistance to Ukraine<\/span><\/a> amid Russia\u2019s invasion and its agreement to the <\/span>Washington Declaration<\/span><\/a> showcase its alignment with U.S. foreign policy objectives.<\/span><\/p>\n

The most recent <\/span>trilateral summit<\/span><\/a> between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo at Camp David also illustrates Seoul\u2019s intent to foster closer ties with Japan, another U.S. ally. While these actions strengthen its alliances with Washington and Tokyo, they have also led to strains with Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang.<\/span><\/p>\n

JITTERY MARKETS<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s economic reliance on exports and its international partnerships make external disturbances highly consequential. One of the primary economic concerns stemming from the latest round of violence in the Middle East for South Korea is its energy reliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Any prolonged conflict or disruption in this region could lead to <\/span>volatility in oil prices<\/span><\/a>. For highly industrialized South Korea, fluctuations in energy prices could result in <\/span>increased operational costs<\/span><\/a> for businesses and potential challenges in maintaining consistent energy supplies for domestic consumption.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beyond energy, South Korea has vested interests in infrastructure projects in the Middle East. Conglomerates have committed to large-scale projects in the region, including <\/span>Saudi Arabia\u2019s NEOM initiative<\/span><\/a>. A heightened state of regional tension or instability can result in project delays due to security concerns and increased costs, especially if energy prices rise.<\/span><\/p>\n

Financial markets also typically react to geopolitical uncertainties. Any major conflict or tension in the Middle East region can cause investors to seek safer havens, potentially leading to capital outflows, depreciating currency values, or even reduced foreign investments in South Korean enterprises.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to supporters during a campaign event, Nov. 1, 2020 | Image: Donald Trump via Twitter<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

GREAT POWER POLITICS<\/b><\/p>\n

If Iran\u2019s role in the recent attack on Israel is confirmed \u2014 a charge that Tehran <\/span>denies<\/span><\/a> \u2014 it could have diplomatic and geopolitical consequences for South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the diplomatic front, South Korea\u2019s foreign policy choices under the Yoon administration, particularly its alignment with U.S. initiatives and efforts to improve ties with Japan, have had the consequence of straining relations with Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given the significant roles that <\/span>China<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>Russia<\/span><\/a> have in Middle Eastern affairs and their stances on Iran, any major policy decisions or events related to the Middle East could further complicate South Korea\u2019s relations with Beijing and Moscow.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, if the U.S. witnesses a change in leadership in the upcoming presidential elections, and if the Republican Party\u2019s critiques against the Biden administration related to the Middle East intensify leading to a potential Trump return, South Korea might find itself in a scenario where it needs to reassess its strategies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Past experiences suggest that shifts in U.S. foreign policy approaches, particularly toward North Korea and China, can have direct implications for Seoul.<\/span><\/p>\n

TRUMP 2.0<\/b><\/p>\n

The possibility of a return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in 2024 prompts a significant reevaluation of defense and security priorities for South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump holds deep disdain for American security commitments abroad and <\/span>sees little value<\/span><\/a> in the U.S.-ROK alliance. While he engaged North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in <\/span>direct dialogue<\/span><\/a> in an apparent effort to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, he also expected South Korea to pay billions more to keep U.S. troops stationed in the country and threatened to withdraw forces altogether if Seoul didn\u2019t agree to a <\/span>400% cost increase<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

A return to such an unorthodox foreign policy led by an unpredictable U.S. president would pose clear challenges for Yoon.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given Yoon\u2019s commitments to Washington, however, any demand for increased defense contributions or a more transactional approach to the U.S.-ROK alliance from a new White House could place South Korea in a precarious position and do irreparable damage to South Korea\u2019s pro-U.S. conservatives.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, Trump\u2019s known preference for bilateral over multilateral negotiations might also impact the trilateral dynamics between the U.S., South Korea and Japan. Yoon\u2019s efforts to mend ties with Japan could face complications if Trump decides to engage separately with Tokyo, sidelining Seoul in critical regional discussions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, the Yoon administration has taken measures that have irked Beijing and Moscow. For instance, Yoon <\/span>stated<\/span><\/a> his opposition to any attempts to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by force and also suggested the ROK could <\/span>provide lethal aid<\/span><\/a> to Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s often conciliatory overtures to these nations could isolate Seoul. Trump may, for example, seek to appease North Korea or make concessions to China or Russia without coordinating with South Korea, undermining Seoul\u2019s position and security in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the potential return of Trump to the U.S. presidency remains speculative, it undoubtedly introduces a degree of uncertainty for South Korea\u2019s defense and security landscape. Trump and the majority of the Republican Party have shown <\/span>disdain<\/span><\/a> for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and have shown a willingness to <\/span>undermine Tehran<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul will need to display strategic foresight and adaptability going forward.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The U.S.-Iran deal involving the release of billions in frozen assets and Hamas\u2019 ongoing attack against Israel have implications that stretch beyond their immediate geographic confines.\u00a0 South Korea, under President Yoon Suk-yeol, has made foreign policy decisions that align more closely with U.S. interests. This approach brings clear advantages but narrows Seoul\u2019s options with other […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2202453,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,28],"class_list":["post-2202452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat the Hamas attacks against Israel mean for South Korea - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/10\/what-the-hamas-attacks-against-israel-mean-for-south-korea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What the Hamas attacks against Israel mean for South Korea - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The U.S.-Iran deal involving the release of billions in frozen assets and Hamas\u2019 ongoing attack against Israel have implications that stretch beyond their immediate geographic confines.\u00a0 South Korea, under President Yoon Suk-yeol, has made foreign policy decisions that align more closely with U.S. interests. 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