{"id":2202315,"date":"2023-09-21T17:00:06","date_gmt":"2023-09-21T08:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2202315"},"modified":"2023-09-22T17:01:57","modified_gmt":"2023-09-22T08:01:57","slug":"g20-summit-revealed-a-complex-multipolar-world-that-south-korea-must-navigate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/09\/g20-summit-revealed-a-complex-multipolar-world-that-south-korea-must-navigate\/","title":{"rendered":"G20 Summit revealed a complex multipolar world that South Korea must navigate"},"content":{"rendered":"

At the recent G20 Summit in New Delhi, India showcased its increasing influence in global diplomacy, with significant implications for South Korea\u2019s foreign policy centered on the U.S.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

India, empowered by its robust economy and new status as the world\u2019s most populous nation, tackled a range of challenging issues and positioned itself as the leader of the Global South while maintaining its relations with China, Russia and the West.<\/span><\/p>\n

India successfully secured an agreement on a G20 <\/span>statement<\/span><\/a>, albeit with diluted language on the conflict in Ukraine, compared to the previous G20 meeting in Bali. Significantly, India welcomed the 55-member African Union to the consortium.<\/span><\/p>\n

The decision by Chinese and Russian leaders Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin not to participate probably simplified the task for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Moreover, choosing not to invite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meant Modi could redirect the summit\u2019s focus away from the divisive issues of U.S.-China tensions and Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Through the summit, India \u2014 now the world\u2019s most populous country \u2014 showed that the world is increasingly multipolar, despite a new Cold War dynamic with Russia and China on one side and the U.S. and its allies on the other.<\/span><\/p>\n

This poses a challenge to South Korea given the Yoon administration\u2019s focus on bolstering ties with the U.S. and Western countries, requiring Seoul to adjust its approach if it hopes to both maintain economic ties with China and take advantage of new opportunities in the Global South.<\/span><\/p>\n

A MULTIPOLAR WORLD<\/b><\/p>\n

The summit underscored the emergence of a multipolar world where neither the U.S. nor China holds singular dominance, with larger and medium-sized nations openly vying for influence. This dynamic presents opportunities and risks for smaller countries, including the ROK.<\/span><\/p>\n

While G20 leaders from nations such as India, Indonesia and Brazil prioritize national interests and flexible relationships, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has chosen a values-based approach anchored in freedom, democracy and a rules-based order. Instead of treating all nations with equal closeness, the Yoon administration has aligned the ROK more closely with its Western partners.<\/span><\/p>\n

Buoyed by his successful state visit to the U.S. in April and the trilateral meeting at Camp David with U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in August, Yoon exhibits growing confidence in his foreign policy, reinforcing the values-based direction he initiated during his presidential campaign a year and a half ago.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even without Putin and Xi, a clear distinction between the U.S.-led Western coalition and the Global South emerged in New Delhi. From Yoon\u2019s vantage point, the global scenario may seem fluid and multipolar, but North Asia continues to mirror Cold War dynamics, with the main players split into two opposing blocs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Russia, China and the DPRK are strengthening ties in opposition to the U.S. and disregarding U.N. Security Council (UNSC) resolutions on DPRK missile tests. Yoon has endeavored to mend relations with Japan and revitalize the trilateral relationship with Washington and Tokyo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Achieving significant progress on that front, Yoon now confronts the challenge of preventing the China-Russia-DPRK bloc from congealing further into enmity.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

President Yoon Suk-yeol meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Sept. 10, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

ENGAGING CHINA<\/b><\/p>\n

At this week\u2019s U.N. General Assembly, Yoon <\/span>expressed<\/span><\/a> concerns about intensifying collaboration between Russia and North Korea, potentially enhancing Kim Jong Un\u2019s missile, nuclear and space capabilities.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon is likely attuned to underlying tensions between China and Russia, exacerbated by Putin\u2019s inability to quickly succeed in the Ukraine conflict after Beijing and Moscow announced a relationship \u201cwithout limits\u201d in early 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon has therefore indicated an interest in bolstering Seoul\u2019s ties with Beijing, <\/span>emphasizing<\/span><\/a> China\u2019s responsibility in addressing regional and global challenges.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

He may be pushing at an open door.<\/span><\/p>\n

China is likely uneasy about the recent meeting between Putin and Kim Jong Un. Any DPRK arms sales to Russia would violate UNSC resolutions, which China and Russia both endorsed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite Xi\u2019s warm embrace of Putin last year, China will not likely follow the DPRK in offering full military support to Russia. China recognizes the reputational risks tied to Russia\u2019s trampling of Ukrainian sovereignty and has cautiously limited its material aid to Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n

China also seeks to sustain its primary influence over North Korea. China\u2019s provision of essential resources like food and energy has sustained the DPRK during global isolation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This influence probably deterred Pyongyang from further nuclear testing in the last two years.<\/span><\/p>\n

It would not be a surprise to see China now seek to strengthen its own dialogue with the DPRK, possibly inviting Kim Jong Un to Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Recent indicators also suggest China is adopting a more conciliatory stance toward the ROK, perhaps recognizing Yoon\u2019s achievements with the U.S. and Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

For one, the Camp David trilateral met with an unusually muted response from China, which ROK Ambassador to the U.S. Cho Hyundong <\/span>described<\/span><\/a> as merely \u201creserved.\u201d South Korea\u2019s foreign minister Park Jin also <\/span>engaged<\/span><\/a> in an 80-minute conversation with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on Aug. 31.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Yoon\u2019s <\/span>dialogue<\/span><\/a> with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in New Delhi, albeit brief, hinted that a bilateral leaders\u2019 meeting with China and\/or a trilateral leaders\u2019 summit including Japan may be on the cards this year.<\/span><\/p>\n

XI\u2019S ABSENCE<\/b><\/p>\n

Multiple theories surround Xi\u2019s decision to forgo the New Delhi summit. Some suggest distractions stemming from China\u2019s economic slowdown and internal security concerns. Others posit Xi aimed to provide his new premier with experience on the global diplomatic stage. A less likely proposition suggests Xi may be retreating from international diplomacy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Chinese sources, which are likely to be the best informed, indicate Xi\u2019s growing dissatisfaction with Modi as a significant factor. For instance, the Beijing-based China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations <\/span>criticized<\/span><\/a> India on Sept. 9 for purportedly \u201cundermining the cooperative atmosphere of the G20,\u201d such as by bringing territorial disputes to the summit\u2019s forefront and hosting Global South meetings excluding China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Whatever the reason, this absence seems to be an unusual misstep by Xi. India received acclaim for conducting a successful summit, positioning itself (not China) as the leader of the Global South and underscoring the G20\u2019s resilience even in the absence of Xi and Putin.<\/span><\/p>\n

For South Korea, the G20 summit served as a platform to highlight its collaborative prospects with the Global South across domains such as technology, defense and climate change while also reminding leaders of the risks of tolerating abuse of international law in places like the DPRK and Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

To achieve these strategic aims, Yoon pledged significant support: $2.3 billion for Ukraine\u2019s reconstruction, a $300 million contribution to the Green Climate Fund and $4 billion worth of <\/span>defense collaboration<\/span><\/a> with India over the next three years.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon has achieved notable progress in revitalizing ties with Japan and bolstering the ROK\u2019s bond with the U.S. But in a complex multipolar world \u2014 whose challenges he has described as a \u201cpolycrisis\u201d \u2014 Yoon may now need to look at some rebalancing of Seoul\u2019s relationships with both the Global South and China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At the recent G20 Summit in New Delhi, India showcased its increasing influence in global diplomacy, with significant implications for South Korea\u2019s foreign policy centered on the U.S.\u00a0 India, empowered by its robust economy and new status as the world\u2019s most populous nation, tackled a range of challenging issues and positioned itself as the leader […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2202316,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[28],"class_list":["post-2202315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nG20 Summit revealed a complex multipolar world that South Korea must navigate - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/09\/g20-summit-revealed-a-complex-multipolar-world-that-south-korea-must-navigate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"G20 Summit revealed a complex multipolar world that South Korea must navigate - 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