{"id":2202141,"date":"2023-09-04T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-04T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2202141"},"modified":"2023-09-05T17:24:29","modified_gmt":"2023-09-05T08:24:29","slug":"how-chinas-ongoing-economic-struggles-impact-south-korean-exporters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/09\/how-chinas-ongoing-economic-struggles-impact-south-korean-exporters\/","title":{"rendered":"How China\u2019s ongoing economic struggles impact South Korean exporters"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese consumers haven\u2019t sustained the expected surge in spending as their economy reopened. As a result, China confronts a nexus of challenges, mainly stemming from a development model that appears to have reached its limits. This development holds significant consequences for the global stage, especially for South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite these implications, Chinese industrial policy, focusing on mercantilism, has steadily compelled South Korean exporters to diversify away from the Chinese market. China\u2019s economic challenges are liable to accelerate this departure even more.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Korea Pro<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> analysis indicates that:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Economic challenges are pressing China\u2019s exporters and domestic consumers, albeit for different reasons. The repercussions of these challenges suggest that the growth of the world\u2019s second-largest economy might stay depressed for the foreseeable period.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the short run, a plummeting housing market, representing nearly 30% of China\u2019s gross domestic product (GDP), has drastically affected its consumers. This downturn has prompted many to reduce their spending, impacting exporters of consumer goods to China and South Korean tourism companies.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the short-to-medium term, the diminishing role of China as a growing export market spells potential troubles for South Korea\u2019s leading sectors. This issue could intensify due to internal economic downturns within China.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The global deceleration in the demand for goods doesn\u2019t only impact South Korea. These structural shifts also hamper Chinese exporters, further complicating the outlook for Korean businesses aiming to sell abroad.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the long run, South Korea must seek new drivers of economic growth beyond relying on exports to China and explore avenues to boost its domestic productivity.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>CHINESE REAL ESTATE<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">China faced economic headwinds last year as its stringent \u201czero-COVID\u201d policy hit households and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/china-s-growth-prospects-after-zero-covid\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">depressed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> domestic consumption. Concurrently, a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2023\/08\/17\/china-home-sales-worse-than-official-data-real-estate-crisis\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ballooning crisis<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> emerged in the real estate sector. Chinese households traditionally <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/newsletter\/boom-bust-and-future-chinas-real-estate-sector\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">allocate<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> a significant portion of their savings to housing. Consequently, a downturn in real estate directly impacts household wealth, affecting Chinese consumers\u2019 ability and inclination to spend.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This year was <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2023\/01\/27\/china-covid-travel-lunar-new-year\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">anticipated<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to herald a resurgence of Chinese consumers, previously an <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/cn\/our-insights\/our-insights\/the-return-of-the-chinese-consumer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">engine<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of global demand. However, that resurgence has waned, and a significant factor is the prolonged downturn in the housing market that persisted into this year. This downturn originated from the Chinese government\u2019s 2020 decision to curtail the growth model of real estate developers, as outlined in its \u201c<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/d5803d64-5cc5-46f0-bed0-1bc207440f9c\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">three red lines<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201d policy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Beijing justified this restriction as a measure to curb speculative buying, emphasizing that housing should serve living needs, not <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/economy\/china-economy\/article\/3229305\/chinas-property-problems-appear-poised-improve-can-much-more-risky-real-estate-still-drive-economic\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">speculation<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. It also stated that it was necessary to address the nation\u2019s escalating debt concerns.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">By the end of 2022, China\u2019s total debt-to-GDP <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-05-08\/china-s-debt-to-gdp-ratio-rises-to-record-279-7-on-credit-boom?leadSource=uverify%20wall\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ratio<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> stood at nearly 280%, excluding financial firms but encompassing other businesses, households and governmental entities. While this figure is already substantial, the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/chinafinancialmarkets\/87007\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">rapid accumulation<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of this debt in recent years raises even greater alarms.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For South Korea, the slowdown in China\u2019s property market may dent demand for exports like petrochemicals, steel and semiconductors. However, South Korea is gradually reducing its dependency on China due to Beijing\u2019s efforts to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/chinafinancialmarkets\/87007\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">localize<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> high-end manufacturing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While China\u2019s consumer and property markets do not rely heavily on Korean imports, this interdependence might further decrease over time. Thus, a decline in Chinese domestic demand could affect some Korean companies. However, prospects emerge elsewhere, such as North America and Europe.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Their <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/jmagazine.joins.com\/monthly\/view\/338130\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ongoing endeavors<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to restructure supply chains closer to home and a rising appetite for electric vehicles and other high-tech products present new opportunities for South Korean firms. These markets could absorb products and intermediates South Korea previously exported to China.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2202142\" style=\"width: 1880px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2202142\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2202142\" src=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/09\/1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1870\" height=\"1000\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/09\/1-1.png 1870w, https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/09\/1-1-935x500.png 935w, https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/09\/1-1-1255x670.png 1255w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1870px) 100vw, 1870px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2202142\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">An illustration of residential buildings under construction | Image: Korea Pro<\/p><\/div>\n<p><b>CHINESE EXPORTERS<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chinese <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/6318c973-1ff7-44b6-9f4b-177e0706f1e2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">exporters<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> face daunting challenges with dwindling orders and prices, a trend echoing among other significant manufactured goods exporters, such as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/think.ing.com\/snaps\/german-exports-may23\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Germany<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The growth in global demand for goods isn\u2019t as robust as in previous years. For instance, the smartphone market\u2019s influx of potential new consumers has sharply dropped since 2013. As more consumers acquire smartphones and the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/49eeec13-9abf-4a91-9627-8d328597ecce\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">durability<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of existing models increases, it\u2019s evident that the market and product have matured.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, this shift poses severe challenges for manufacturers accustomed to boasting double-digit growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Similar patterns emerge in the global shipping market. The ramifications of COVID-19 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/coronavirus\/policy-responses\/international-trade-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-big-shifts-and-uncertainty-d1131663\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">severely impacted<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> global trade flows, leading to surging demand for logistics and ships, especially after the industry saw a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/industry\/ind\/C-WP6(2022)13_DSPC-v2.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">structural decline<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the late 2010s. However, this urgent demand for ships during the pandemic\u2019s peak eventually reverted to a plunge reminiscent of 2019 patterns, indicating that global merchandise trade has transformed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Korean automotive companies, which hold a considerable stake in the global car market and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fki.or.kr\/main\/news\/statement_detail.do?bbs_id=00034939&amp;category=ST\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">contribute significantly<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to Korean exports, also confront challenges. Much like the semiconductor sector, they grapple with issues of overcapacity and oversupply, putting profits at <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/think.ing.com\/articles\/car-market-outlook-2023-seeing-is-believing\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">risk<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These market dynamics spell potential trouble for the Korean economy, which leans heavily on exports, particularly in semiconductors and electronics, but also in areas like shipbuilding and steel. But there is a silver lining. The U.S. demand for Korean goods might cushion the impact on ROK producers, and the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sammobile.com\/news\/galaxy-glasses-ring-could-be-coming-soon-to-rock-our-worlds\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">emergence<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of new products and markets could help rejuvenate at least part of the Korean growth engine.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Korean companies should be wary. While China grapples with its real estate issues, the obstacles facing its exporters might serve as early warning signs for Korean businesses. Many Korean firms have already weathered a tumultuous year, grappling with the depreciating won and rising import costs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The road ahead could be rocky for South Korean manufacturers. However, not all is bleak, as optimism arises from potential growth in emerging markets, such as Indonesia, Vietnam, India and Africa. These markets might not provide <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.joongang.co.kr\/article\/25138726#home\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">immediate relief<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> but present promising prospects for the coming years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<div class=\"content-tags\"><a href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/tag\/business-economy\/\"><span class=\"tag\">Business &amp; Economy<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese consumers haven\u2019t sustained the expected surge in spending as their economy reopened. As a result, China confronts a nexus of challenges, mainly stemming from a development model that appears to have reached its limits. This development holds significant consequences for the global stage, especially for South Korea. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2202143,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24],"class_list":["post-2202141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How China\u2019s ongoing economic struggles impact South Korean exporters - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/09\/how-chinas-ongoing-economic-struggles-impact-south-korean-exporters\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How China\u2019s ongoing economic struggles impact South Korean exporters - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese consumers haven\u2019t sustained the expected surge in spending as their economy reopened. 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