{"id":2201966,"date":"2023-08-11T17:00:13","date_gmt":"2023-08-11T08:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2201966"},"modified":"2023-08-14T17:56:12","modified_gmt":"2023-08-14T08:56:12","slug":"bidens-camp-david-challenge-incentivizing-improved-south-korea-japan-relations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/08\/bidens-camp-david-challenge-incentivizing-improved-south-korea-japan-relations\/","title":{"rendered":"Biden\u2019s Camp David challenge: Incentivizing improved South Korea-Japan relations"},"content":{"rendered":"

Beyond the golf cart rides and merry optics, U.S. President Joe Biden will likely face a challenging task at the forthcoming <\/span>Camp David talks<\/span><\/a>. He must present compelling incentives to ensure South Korean and Japanese leaders remain invested in fortifying their bilateral relationship, experts told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington is eager to accelerate and \u201c<\/span>regularize<\/span><\/a>\u201d trilateral cooperation with these key allies. Nevertheless, local political challenges in South Korea and Japan could decelerate the significant progress each nation has achieved in their mutual relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the resumption of trade and intelligence sharing underscored by the proactive diplomacy between President Yoon Suk-yeol and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, substantial obstacles persist.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Issues like the <\/span>2019 dispute<\/span><\/a> surrounding compensation for Japan\u2019s wartime forced labor and the longstanding disagreements over reparations for former \u201ccomfort women\u201d highlight deep-rooted tensions and nationalist sentiments tied to Japan\u2019s brutal occupation of Korea in the early 20th century.<\/span><\/p>\n

Adding to these complexities, Japan <\/span>reasserted its claim<\/span><\/a> to Korea\u2019s Dokdo Island in its recent annual defense white paper, even while expressing hope for enhanced relations with Seoul.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further complicating matters is Japan\u2019s upcoming release of treated wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear plant. Despite a visit from the International Atomic Energy Agency chief to Seoul and the Yoon administration\u2019s independent evaluation of the Fukushima site, <\/span>concerns<\/span><\/a> over health and environmental implications persist among opposition leaders and activists.<\/span><\/p>\n

SHIFTING POLITICAL GROUNDS<\/b><\/p>\n

As South Korea\u2019s parliamentary elections next year draw closer, Yoon faces a <\/span>stubborn public approval rating<\/span><\/a>. Recent opinion polls depict a tight contest with the opposition Democratic Party, which currently holds more than half of the 300-seat unicameral parliament.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, in Japan, Kishida also grapples with <\/span>waning public approval<\/span><\/a>. Dwindling ratings have been attributed to the poorly executed launch of a new identification card system. With the support for his cabinet declining for several consecutive months, speculation about a potential snap election gains momentum.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cKishida has especially seen the approval rating for his cabinet fall to around 33%, the lowest since he took office in Oct. 2021. So, he\u2019s attempting to play on his strength in foreign policy, as with the G7 Hiroshima Summit held earlier this year,\u201d Craig Mark, an adjunct lecturer of economics at Hosei University in Japan, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nevertheless, any possible uptick Kishida might experience will likely be fleeting. The pronounced presence of right-wing factions within Kishida\u2019s Liberal Democratic Party <\/span>constrains<\/span><\/a> his ability to adopt a more conciliatory stance toward South Korea. While he\u2019s <\/span>expressed<\/span><\/a> his \u201cheartfelt\u201d sympathy regarding the suffering of Korea\u2019s forced labor victims, a full-fledged apology remains absent \u2014 something that South Korea\u2019s Democratic Party has repeatedly <\/span>pointed out<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given these dynamics, Biden\u2019s challenge at the Camp David summit is clear: He must harness the meeting as a catalyst for collaboration, focusing on shared objectives among the three nations.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor is launched during a successful intercept test, Sept. 10, 2013 | Image: US Army via Flickr<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

SEEKING REASSURANCES<\/b><\/p>\n

Amid the DPRK\u2019s escalating nuclear weapons program, mounting anxieties plague Seoul and Tokyo. They are growing increasingly concerned that a potential North Korean strike on the U.S. mainland could deter Washington\u2019s commitment to defend its Asian allies in a conflict, according to Yu Jihoon, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cBoth the ROK and Japan will be eager for further U.S. assurances of support as well as concrete steps to strengthen the credibility of the U.S. commitments to its alliances,\u201d Yu told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

In this context, the role of U.S. leadership becomes paramount. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner <\/span>emphasized<\/span><\/a> the significance of the upcoming meeting. He noted it wouldn\u2019t be \u201cjust getting together and having dialogue and sharing views\u201d but would lay the groundwork for more regularized exercises, marking pivotal advancements in trilateral cooperation.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, navigating historical frictions between South Korea and Japan will remain challenging. \u201cIt\u2019s politically costly for either government to deepen trilateral collaboration,\u201d Yu told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>. \u201cBut with U.S. support and incentives, trilateral cooperation becomes more feasible.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

One of the proposed initiatives, Yu suggests, could be the establishment of regular missile defense drills involving the military forces of all three countries. \u201cThese exercises would help improve interoperability while also demonstrating the partners\u2019 increasingly sophisticated missile defense capabilities,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean Trade, Industry and Energy Minister Lee Chang-yang and the U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo hold the Korea-U.S. Supply Chain & Commercial Dialogue, April 27, 2023 | Image: ROK Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

COMPLEX GLOBAL DYNAMICS<\/b><\/p>\n

While officials from Seoul and Washington have dismissed for now the inclusion of Japan in the <\/span>Nuclear Consultative Group<\/span><\/a> with South Korea and the U.S., there\u2019s rising speculation that the trio might explore intel-sharing mechanisms, including missile data sharing and a trilateral hotline between the leaders, as cited in a <\/span>Financial Times<\/span><\/i> report<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beyond military considerations, the economic landscape also offers potential collaborative avenues. Adjustments to Washington\u2019s policies, particularly the <\/span>Inflation Reduction Act<\/span><\/a> (IRA), which poses challenges to foreign firms in the U.S. market, could be on the table.<\/span><\/p>\n

U.S. sanctions on critical chip technology, software and equipment destined for China threaten to disrupt global supply chains, potentially hampering growth prospects for tech giants like Samsung Electronics.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cKey allies like Japan, South Korea and Australia would indeed be expecting some more favorable treatment for suppliers, particularly for electric-vehicle chain suppliers such as batteries, with more tax credits and other exemptions under the IRA in general,\u201d Craig Mark told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

As Washington nudges its allies away from tech supply chains involving Beijing, trilateral <\/span>economic security talks<\/span><\/a> have been ongoing since February. These discussions emphasize bolstering supply chain resilience and coordinating approaches to sensitive technologies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Revived trade relations between Seoul and Tokyo, particularly concerning semiconductor materials exports from Japan, suggest burgeoning prospects for stronger three-way chip cooperation, as Ami Bera, a U.S. congressman, <\/span>hinted<\/span><\/a> last month.<\/span><\/p>\n

He emphasized the potential benefits for South Korea in a U.S.-Japan agreement on securing vital mineral supplies and forecasted possible \u201cadjustments\u201d in the IRA favorable to Seoul.<\/span><\/p>\n

To foster unity, the U.S. is eyeing a <\/span>joint statement<\/span><\/a> from all three leaders to show solidarity in the Indo-Pacific. This document will likely underscore a collaborative approach to North Korea and a shared vision for economic security.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cPresident Biden wants to get our two Northeast Asian treaty allies onside as much as possible against Pyongyang and Beijing, especially as he sees America\u2019s alliances as force multipliers for U.S. values and strategic objectives the world over,\u201d Sean King, the senior vice president at Park Strategies told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although this trilateral statement wouldn\u2019t impose any binding obligations, it might be a stepping stone to building more institutions and mechanisms to sustain the three-way relationship. Japanese media reported on Thursday that the text would <\/span>likely include<\/span><\/a> holding three-way talks between the leaders at least once a year.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the intent for enhanced cooperation is evident, especially given the budding personal rapport between Yoon and Kishida, consistent nudging and incentives will be essential to get Washington\u2019s allies on the same page.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Beyond the golf cart rides and merry optics, U.S. President Joe Biden will likely face a challenging task at the forthcoming Camp David talks. He must present compelling incentives to ensure South Korean and Japanese leaders remain invested in fortifying their bilateral relationship, experts told Korea Pro. 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