{"id":2201949,"date":"2023-08-10T17:58:54","date_gmt":"2023-08-10T08:58:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2201949"},"modified":"2023-08-11T17:02:28","modified_gmt":"2023-08-11T08:02:28","slug":"how-russias-dprk-sanctions-breach-impacts-south-koreas-calculus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/08\/how-russias-dprk-sanctions-breach-impacts-south-koreas-calculus\/","title":{"rendered":"How Russia\u2019s possible DPRK sanctions breach impacts South Korea\u2019s calculus"},"content":{"rendered":"

Recent <\/span>reports<\/span><\/a> that Ukrainian forces seized North Korean artillery that seemed to have been destined for the Russian military add complexity to South Korea\u2019s stance on providing arms to Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu\u2019s <\/span>recent trip<\/span><\/a> to Pyongyang \u2014 highlighted by his attendance at an arms exhibit featuring prohibited ballistic missiles \u2014 it should not come as a surprise if North Korea provided arms to Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, even if DPRK weapons transfers to Russia are confirmed, they are unlikely to substantially shift the discourse on South Korea\u2019s provision of lethal military assistance to Ukraine or redefine South Korea-Russia relations for the foreseeable future.<\/span><\/p>\n

The crux of this revelation might lie elsewhere: Seoul will likely increasingly question the Russian Federation\u2019s role as a partner in efforts to denuclearize North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

MOSCOW\u2019S MOTIVATIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

The potential acquisition of Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) by Russia from North Korea aligns with prior <\/span>speculation<\/span><\/a> in the Russian media space. This chatter emerged after a Sept. 2022 New York Times <\/em><\/span>article<\/span><\/a> suggested potential arms deals between North Korea and Russia, spotlighting the military advantages such hardware could offer Moscow on the Ukrainian battlefield. <\/span>The discovery that North Korean munitions have surfaced in Ukraine appears to challenge Pyongyang\u2019s prior <\/span>denials<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moscow\u2019s rationale for seeking armaments from North Korea is clear. However, questions arise about the possibility of regularized arms exchanges between the two countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrainian experts <\/span>highlight<\/span><\/a> the daunting logistical challenges that would seemingly deter consistent North Korean arms supplies to Russia. These challenges span from the vast distance between the North Korea-Russia border transfer point and the Ukrainian frontline to syncing the rate at which the Russian forces expend ammunition in Ukraine with North Korea\u2019s capability to replenish it.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet amid these complexities, one aspect stands out: the Kremlin appears willing to breach international law concerning North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

U.N. Security Council unanimously adopts UNSC Resolution 2270, Mar 2, 2016 | Image: United Nations<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

SHIFTING DEFENSE DYNAMICS<\/b><\/p>\n

In 2006, the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1718 initiated an arms embargo on North Korea, allowing only small arms. The later U.N. Security Council Resolution 2270 <\/span>expanded<\/span><\/a> these terms, encompassing the import and export of small arms under the embargo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Russia has long faced accusations of lax enforcement of these multilateral sanctions related to North Korea \u2014 accusations that Moscow has consistently denied. Even amid its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow <\/span>asserted<\/span><\/a> it was adhering to U.N. sanctions against North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

A prime example is its <\/span>justification<\/span><\/a> that North Korean workers were permitted to find employment in what Russia recognized as the independent Donetsk and Luhansk republics \u2014 entities not affiliated with the U.N.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is unlikely that Seoul can overlook these developments for long.<\/span><\/p>\n

The dynamics of North Korea-Russia relations have evolved considerably. A decade ago, their interactions <\/span>might not<\/span><\/a> have explicitly signified the birth of an anti-Western alliance. However, today\u2019s apparent military cooperation between the DPRK and Russia is unmistakable.<\/span><\/p>\n

Emerging reports of North Korea\u2019s provision of lethal weapons to Russia for its operations in Ukraine further suggest that both nations are bolstering their military ties with the express aim of undermining Western and Western-aligned liberal democracies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet this doesn\u2019t necessarily signal a pivot in Seoul\u2019s strategy toward Russia or its stance on supporting Kyiv. <\/span>Even at the height of the Cold War, South Korea <\/span>refrained from conflating<\/span><\/a> the DPRK-USSR relationship with the immediate threat North Korea represented.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given this history, even if the North Korea-Russia defense partnership strengthens, as long as it doesn\u2019t directly threaten South Korea, Seoul might hesitate to endorse the idea of arming Ukraine as a countermeasure to this partnership, even as conversations about a \u201cNew Cold War\u201d intensify.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol pays respect at the Wall of Remembrance of the Fallen for Ukraine, July 15, 2023 | Image: ROK President Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

SOUTH KOREA\u2019S STANCE<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korean discussions on <\/span>whether<\/span><\/a> to <\/span>provide<\/span><\/a> lethal military support to Kyiv pivot on a central dilemma: should Seoul prioritize its identity as a liberal democracy, backing nations with similar values, or should it narrow its focus on maintaining ties with Russia for the sake of national interests?<\/span><\/p>\n

Steering away from this debate, Seoul leaned on its <\/span>domestic legal framework<\/span><\/a>, which restricts arms transfers to countries at war, to justify its reluctance to arm Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Seoul\u2019s calculus could change if it is confirmed that North Korea has supplied arms to Russia. Such a move would undercut Moscow\u2019s position on sanctions and raise questions about Russia\u2019s role in the Korean denuclearization process.<\/span><\/p>\n

As recent as 2021, the denuclearization goals of South Korea \u2014 and by extension, the U.S. \u2014 <\/span>aligned<\/span><\/a> with Russia\u2019s stance. Notably, Seoul <\/span>pursued talks<\/span><\/a> with Moscow about denuclearization even after Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, Russia\u2019s seeming violation of North Korean sanctions echoes the very actions Moscow has <\/span>cautioned<\/span><\/a> Seoul against, threatening a rupture in ROK-Russia relations. Yet as some South Korean officials <\/span>highlighted<\/span><\/a>, Russia hasn\u2019t made good on its threats to retaliate against those that supply arms to Kyiv.<\/span><\/p>\n

In any case, South Korea\u2019s faith in Russia\u2019s role as a reliable actor in Korean denuclearization has likely waned significantly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, even as Seoul insists that its position on providing arms to Kyiv <\/span>has not changed<\/span><\/a>, Kyiv and its allies will likely point to North Korea\u2019s apparent arms deal with Russia to persuade Seoul to reconsider its stance on arming Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

While South Korea might navigate these murky waters without any abrupt policy shifts, the implications of North Korea\u2019s apparent arms deals with Russia are too significant for Seoul to disregard indefinitely, carrying inevitable repercussions for its foreign policy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Editor\u2019s<\/span> Note: Qualifiers have been added to reflect the dynamic nature of this ongoing story.<\/em><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recent reports that Ukrainian forces seized North Korean artillery that seemed to have been destined for the Russian military add complexity to South Korea\u2019s stance on providing arms to Ukraine. 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