{"id":2201813,"date":"2023-07-27T17:00:09","date_gmt":"2023-07-27T08:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2201813"},"modified":"2023-07-28T17:02:59","modified_gmt":"2023-07-28T08:02:59","slug":"how-us-south-korea-nuclear-consultative-group-portends-a-new-era-of-diplomacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/07\/how-us-south-korea-nuclear-consultative-group-portends-a-new-era-of-diplomacy\/","title":{"rendered":"How US-South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group portends a new era of diplomacy"},"content":{"rendered":"

The summit at Camp David next month between leaders from the U.S., South Korea and Japan is set to prominently feature discussions around intelligence sharing. This increasingly underlines the potential establishment of a trilateral nuclear consultative group.<\/span><\/p>\n

This meeting will signify the fifth gathering of these leaders this year. However, this particular summit holds heightened significance given that the three nations are poised and prepared to take their cooperation to a \u201cnew level,\u201d as previously pledged at the G7 Summit held in Hiroshima in May.<\/span><\/p>\n

Among the concerns delineated as priority areas, missile intelligence sharing will likely take center stage in the discussions. The agenda, designed to bolster trilateral cooperation, will address and fortify defenses against missile and <\/span>cyber threats<\/span><\/a> from North Korea and China.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

President Yoon Suk-yeol meets with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House, April 27, 2023 | Image: The White House via Flickr<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

MORE INTEL-SHARING<\/b><\/p>\n

Over recent months, Seoul\u2019s defense initiatives have consistently highlighted a recurring theme of increasing information sharing. The most notable example of this trend emerged last week with the inauguration of a bilateral <\/span>Nuclear Consultative Group<\/span><\/a> (NCG) meeting with the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

This formation, established under the auspices of the <\/span>Washington Declaration<\/span><\/a>, seeks to \u201cstrengthen extended deterrence, discuss nuclear and strategic planning and manage the threat to the nonproliferation regime posed\u201d by the DPRK.<\/span><\/p>\n

The conceptualization of the NCG appears to stem from mounting uncertainties in Seoul regarding the effectiveness of America\u2019s extended deterrence policy amid North Korea\u2019s rapidly advancing capabilities to execute a nuclear or hybrid attack. Similar apprehensions have been expressed in <\/span>Japan<\/span><\/a>, which seeks to deter China\u2019s escalating military assertiveness in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the prospects of hosting U.S. tactical nuclear weapons or developing South Korea\u2019s nuclear capabilities seemed to dim following the meeting between Joe Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol in May. Under the declaration, Seoul reaffirmed its commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Concurrently, Washington pledged more frequent strategic asset deployments and consultations concerning potential nuclear weapons employment on the Korean Peninsula.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite its promising inception, the NCG <\/span>falls short<\/span><\/a> of the nuclear-sharing arrangement initially envisioned by advocates hoping for permanent deployment or greater control of U.S. nuclear assets on the Korean Peninsula. Currently, around 100 B-61 gravity bombs are stored across <\/span>five European countries<\/span><\/a>, with NATO\u2019s <\/span>Nuclear Planning Group<\/span><\/a> acting as a \u201csenior\u201d forum to dictate the alliance\u2019s nuclear policy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nevertheless, Seoul maintains an optimistic stance that the NCG will solidify a \u201cnuclear-based alliance\u201d by securing its place in Washington\u2019s nuclear planning and, potentially, decision-making processes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Notably, at the recent NATO summit in Lithuania, South Korea agreed to <\/span>expand military information sharing<\/span><\/a> with the 31-member alliance and is in the process of joining NATO\u2019s intelligence-collecting network. This integration will provide the ROK access to classified information, including human intelligence \u2014 essential for combating illegal transnational activities, cybercrimes and hacking.<\/span><\/p>\n

North Korea is notorious for <\/span>utilizing<\/span><\/a> the aforementioned tactics as <\/span>means of<\/span><\/a> espionage, launching attacks on other nations and circumventing global sanctions to fund its nuclear and missile programs.<\/span><\/p>\n

While South Korea has been striving to develop a sophisticated cybersecurity system, it still lags behind NATO countries in collecting electronic and human intelligence on North Korea\u2019s global networks, according to Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King\u2019s College London.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSeoul would want access to intelligence on countries with strong links to North Korea. This includes China and Russia \u2014 on which NATO has probably unparalleled intelligence \u2014 not to mention countries in the Middle East like Iran,\u201d Pacheco Pardo told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSuch countries are coordinating closely, especially in what we call hybrid warfare. North Korea\u2019s cyber activities are not confined to Asia anymore; its reach is global and could extend into space in the future,\u201d he added.<\/span><\/p>\n

A senior official in the ROK presidential office <\/span>briefed<\/span><\/a> reporters that NATO\u2019s intelligence network could act as a blueprint for South Korea\u2019s information-sharing with the U.S., specifically concerning the newly launched NCG, which some speculate may eventually expand to include Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Seoul officials have <\/span>denied<\/span><\/a> any current plans for a trilateral forum, U.S. officials have suggested such a collaboration would be \u201c<\/span>good for all<\/span><\/a>\u201d three countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol during the NATO Summit in Lithuania, July 12, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

AN ASIAN NATO<\/b><\/p>\n

Since early this year, establishing a trilateral nuclear consultative body has been suggested, leading to conjecture that the NCG may provide the infrastructure for such cooperation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Without tangible forward-deployed U.S. nuclear assets in Seoul and Tokyo, both allies have sought <\/span>greater assurances<\/span><\/a> that Washington will uphold its commitment to extended deterrence. Institutionalizing dialogue and standardizing operating procedures for U.S. nuclear use could, in theory, <\/span>strengthen<\/span><\/a> their collective response to Pyongyang\u2019s nuclear threats.<\/span><\/p>\n

Presently, the 2014 <\/span>Trilateral Information Sharing Arrangement<\/span><\/a> permits the sharing of classified information on North Korea\u2019s nuclear and missile threats among the three governments. However, information is only distributed through Washington, based on its separate agreements with Seoul and Tokyo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fragile bilateral relations between Seoul and Tokyo have historically hindered robust intelligence sharing, despite their recognizing the need for enhanced trilateral collaboration.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nonetheless, over the last four months, a thaw in relations has been facilitated through an <\/span>exchange of \u201cshuttle\u201d diplomacy<\/span><\/a> between South Korean and Japanese leaders Yoon Suk-yeol and Fumio Kishida. Their concerted efforts have led to bridge-building over contentious issues, ranging from Japan\u2019s wartime use of forced labor to its plans to discharge the Fukushima nuclear power plant\u2019s treated water into the ocean.<\/span><\/p>\n

The steady improvement in relations has led to the full restoration of trade, especially in exports of vital semiconductor materials to South Korea. It has also revived the <\/span>General Security of Military Information Agreement<\/span><\/a> to detect North Korean missiles.<\/span><\/p>\n

This sets the stage for enhanced security cooperation, a topic likely to be discussed at the upcoming Camp David summit.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cPerhaps a discussion to set up an information-sharing apparatus could be underway or on the table,\u201d Jaewoo Choo, a professor and director of Kyung Hee University\u2019s China Research Center, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>. \u201cThe three nations could seek an opportunity to lay a concrete foundation for such a mechanism to facilitate information-sharing in a contingency.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Last week, White House National Security Advisor Kurt Campbell hinted that the U.S. is not discounting the possibility of expanding the NCG. The primary focus currently remains on bilateral cooperation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet the forthcoming trilateral summit may provide the platform for an upgraded three-way cooperation system as Beijing <\/span>rapidly expands<\/span><\/a> its nuclear force across land, air and sea.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to Choo, there is a \u201cgrowing consensus that the Quad (the quadrilateral security grouping in the Indo-Pacific comprising the U.S., Japan, India and Australia) should become a Quint by including South Korea.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Campbell noted that the launch of the NCG was a rare initiative by Washington, unseen \u201csince the days of the Cold War,\u201d highlighting the <\/span>recent stop of a U.S. nuclear submarine<\/span><\/a> at the ROK\u2019s southern port city of Busan. This event served as a warning to not only North Korea but also China, according to experts.<\/span><\/p>\n

The move predictably drew a <\/span>critical response<\/span><\/a> from Beijing, which accused the U.S. of reverting to its \u201cCold War mentality\u201d and exacerbating \u201cbloc confrontation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

China and North Korea have expressed concern over the potential formation of <\/span>an Asian NATO<\/span><\/a> in their proximity.<\/span><\/p>\n

The success of any future trilateral security cooperation forum will depend heavily on the degree of information sharing between Seoul and Washington.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cInformation sharing regarding nuclear operation at the intra-department level within the United States is already difficult, so it will be challenging for Seoul to secure access points,\u201d Choo told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cBut once this gets done, I believe it\u2019ll be foreseeable that the NCG will become a pivotal body for managing regional nuclear risk beyond the Korean Peninsula,\u201d he added.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The summit at Camp David next month between leaders from the U.S., South Korea and Japan is set to prominently feature discussions around intelligence sharing. This increasingly underlines the potential establishment of a trilateral nuclear consultative group. This meeting will signify the fifth gathering of these leaders this year. However, this particular summit holds heightened […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10207,"featured_media":2201817,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,28],"class_list":["post-2201813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nHow US-South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group portends a new era of diplomacy - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/07\/how-us-south-korea-nuclear-consultative-group-portends-a-new-era-of-diplomacy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How US-South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group portends a new era of diplomacy - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The summit at Camp David next month between leaders from the U.S., South Korea and Japan is set to prominently feature discussions around intelligence sharing. 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