{"id":2201753,"date":"2023-07-20T19:21:49","date_gmt":"2023-07-20T10:21:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2201753"},"modified":"2023-07-21T21:52:23","modified_gmt":"2023-07-21T12:52:23","slug":"how-testimony-by-opposition-leaders-confidant-impacts-south-korean-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/07\/how-testimony-by-opposition-leaders-confidant-impacts-south-korean-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"How testimony by opposition leader\u2019s confidant impacts South Korean politics"},"content":{"rendered":"

The return of <\/span>Lee Nak-yeon<\/span><\/a>, former prime minister and one-time presidential hopeful, from a yearlong sabbatical in the U.S. in late June has ignited tensions within South Korea\u2019s main opposition Democratic Party (DP). Lee Nak-yeon\u2019s reappearance comes as he and current DP leader Lee Jae-myung grapple for control, turning factional lines within the party into a political battleground.<\/span><\/p>\n

In recent weeks, the DP\u2019s \u201c<\/span>Blue Wave<\/span><\/a>\u201d social media platform has become a hotspot for rancorous debate. Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung\u2019s respective supporters have traded <\/span>vitriolic barbs<\/span><\/a>, escalating the underlying power struggle to new heights. To address this internal discord, the two progressive politicians arranged a <\/span>meeting<\/span><\/a>, initially set for July 11.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, extreme weather led to <\/span>widespread flooding<\/span><\/a> across South Korea, postponing the meeting, first to July 19 and then indefinitely. To date, it remains unscheduled.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet a new twist in this political saga may put the anticipated detente out of reach. A pivotal testimony by Lee Hwa-young, a close associate of Lee Jae-myung, threatens to upend any prospect of reconciliation between Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung \u2014 and perhaps even the trajectory of South Korean politics.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

THE TESTIMONY<\/b><\/p>\n

Lee Hwa-young, the former deputy governor of Gyeonggi Province, recently delivered potentially damaging <\/span>testimony<\/span><\/a> to prosecutors. Serving under Lee Jae-myung during his tenure as governor, Lee Hwa-young alleges he made a $5 million transfer to North Korea at Lee Jae-myung\u2019s request, a transaction he claims to have reported to the politician.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prosecutors <\/span>theorize<\/span><\/a> that Lee Jae-myung intended to make a solo trip to North Korea while still serving as Gyeonggi Province\u2019s governor following his exclusion from the <\/span>2018 inter-Korea summit<\/span><\/a>. This exclusion allegedly prompted Lee Jae-myung\u2019s office to plan an independent North Korean visit in a likely attempt to bolster his 2022 presidential campaign.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee Hwa-young first encountered legal trouble in Sept. 2022 when he was <\/span>arrested<\/span><\/a> for accepting bribes and illegal political funds from Ssangbangwool Group, a prominent underwear manufacturer. By March, prosecutors had <\/span>indicted<\/span><\/a> him for his purported role in facilitating the illicit transfer of millions of dollars to North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to prosecutors<\/span><\/a>, Lee Hwa-young conspired with Ssangbangwool to transfer millions of dollars to North Korea via China between Jan. 2019 and Jan. 2020 to support Gyeonggi Province\u2019s smart farm project in the DPRK. As per South Korea\u2019s <\/span>Foreign Exchange Transactions Act<\/span><\/a>, any funds transferred to North Korean authorities from the ROK must first receive approval from the Bank of Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee Hwa-young\u2019s testimony, claiming he reported the remittance in question to then-Governor Lee Jae-myung, threatens to cast a long shadow over Lee Jae-myung\u2019s political career. Beyond the potential damage to his standing, this development also throws into question the anticipated truce with Lee Nak-yeon, amplifying the tensions within the DP.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung delivers a speech, June 3, 2023 | Image: Lee Jae-myung via Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cENGAGING IN POLITICS\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Coming from his former deputy, the allegations of illegal remittances to North Korea possess credibility that could invite an intensified investigation by South Korean prosecutors. Lee Jae-myung has already been <\/span>indicted<\/span><\/a> before.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee has firmly denied the allegations. He has criticized the prosecution for seemingly \u201c<\/span>engaging in politics<\/span><\/a>\u201d instead of strictly adhering to the legal process. While the veracity of these allegations remains under question, they pose serious legal implications for the party leader.<\/span><\/p>\n

The repercussions could be severe if evidence validates the claim that Lee had knowledge of and directly ordered a $5 million remittance to North Korea during his tenure as the governor of Gyeonggi Province. Legal consequences might include substantial fines and potential imprisonment.<\/span><\/p>\n

Such outcomes would threaten Lee\u2019s leadership of the DP and could derail any future political ambitions, including a prospective second run for South Korea\u2019s presidency.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, a protracted and revitalized prosecutorial investigation into Lee\u2019s term as governor will likely cause reputational damage. This situation might prompt DP lawmakers to <\/span>reconsider their allegiances<\/span><\/a>, potentially shifting their support toward a leader with less legal entanglement, such as Lee Nak-yeon.<\/span><\/p>\n

POLITICAL CALCULATIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

Given the fragile relationship between Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung, Lee Hwa-yeong\u2019s testimony could pave the way for Lee Nak-yeon to regain influence within the party.<\/span><\/p>\n

Any failure by Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung to reach a truce could ignite an internal power struggle and cause a possible realignment within the party, which would only exacerbate factional divisions. Such a situation would be ill-timed, especially as the party braces for the upcoming parliamentary elections amid <\/span>concerns<\/span><\/a> of lawmakers leveraging their political positions to evade arrest and an increasingly emboldened ruling party.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the wake of these developments, Lee Nak-yeon is likely weighing his options carefully. Should he decide to step into a possible leadership void, he could consolidate his position and chart a new course for the party. However, such a move would require tactful handling to avoid further alienating Lee Jae-myung\u2019s <\/span>passionate supporters<\/span><\/a>, who are already unfavorable toward Lee Nak-yeon.<\/span><\/p>\n

Conversely, should Lee Nak-yeon choose a more conciliatory approach toward Lee Jae-myung\u2019s faction, it could uphold party unity, albeit possibly at the expense of his political ambitions. Regardless of his course, the unfolding situation offers risks and opportunities for Lee Nak-yeon.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung on a stage, July 1, 2023 | Image: Lee Jae-myung via Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

POLITICAL BATTLEFIELD<\/b><\/p>\n

Lee Hwa-yeong\u2019s testimony may also reverberate far beyond the internal workings of the DP.<\/span><\/p>\n

DP lawmakers\u2019 <\/span>noncommittal stance<\/span><\/a> on forgoing their non-arrest privileges may significantly impact public sentiment, casting a long shadow over the party\u2019s prospects in April\u2019s parliamentary elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

If Lee Jae-myung were to face legal repercussions and the party is perceived to be shielding its members from the law, voters could see it as an evasion of responsibility. This could exacerbate public distrust, possibly steering undecided voters away from the party.<\/span><\/p>\n

Under these evolving circumstances, the ruling People Power Party (PPP) could find itself in an advantageous position. Despite being only <\/span>marginally more popular<\/span><\/a> than the DP, any misstep by the opposition could present an opportunity for the PPP to gain politically. The PPP could exploit the situation to present itself as a viable alternative, especially if it can capitalize on potential public disillusionment with the DP.<\/span><\/p>\n

Voters\u2019 reaction to this scandal could lead to significant political fallout. Recent years have witnessed strong support among South Koreans for <\/span>transparency and political accountability<\/span><\/a>. Should the allegations against Lee Jae-myung be substantiated, public sentiment might further sour against the DP. This scenario could also empower the party\u2019s innovation committee chair, Kim Eun-kyung, to advocate for <\/span>additional political reform<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The outcome of Lee Hwa-young\u2019s testimony hinges on various factors, including the results of the legal proceedings, the DP\u2019s response and the PPP\u2019s ability to exploit the situation effectively. Nonetheless, Lee Hwa-yeong\u2019s testimony has introduced a new layer of uncertainty into South Korean politics.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Alannah Hill\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The return of Lee Nak-yeon, former prime minister and one-time presidential hopeful, from a yearlong sabbatical in the U.S. in late June has ignited tensions within South Korea\u2019s main opposition Democratic Party (DP). 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