{"id":2201541,"date":"2023-06-29T19:18:31","date_gmt":"2023-06-29T10:18:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2201541"},"modified":"2023-06-30T17:03:21","modified_gmt":"2023-06-30T08:03:21","slug":"how-russias-power-struggles-create-a-geopolitical-quandary-for-south-korea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/06\/how-russias-power-struggles-create-a-geopolitical-quandary-for-south-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"How Russia\u2019s power struggles create a geopolitical quandary for South Korea"},"content":{"rendered":"
Last week, the world witnessed <\/span>the most serious threat yet<\/span><\/a> to Vladimir Putin\u2019s grip on power as the Wagner Group marched on Moscow. According to U.S. Secretary of State <\/span>Antony Blinken<\/span><\/a>, the world has yet to see the final act play out, and the political tremors will likely reverberate in Seoul.<\/span><\/p>\n Should Russia\u2019s leadership crisis deepen, repercussions will present a mixed bag of challenges and opportunities for South Korea. The potential instability in Russia could necessitate a recalibration of how the Yoon Suk-yeol administration approaches the war in Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n But in the medium to long term, the potential ramifications become even more complex for Seoul. The state of North Korea-Russia relations would be a significant concern, and South Korea would need to navigate the prospects of rejuvenating economic cooperation with regional entities in the Russian Far East.<\/span><\/p>\n MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE?<\/b><\/p>\n The ROK has so far contributed to Ukraine\u2019s efforts on <\/span>various non-military fronts<\/span><\/a>. However, recent <\/span>reports<\/span><\/a> have also alleged that South Korea is supplying Ukraine with ammunition through U.S. channels.<\/span><\/p>\n The Yoon administration finds itself navigating a precarious path, striving to balance Washington\u2019s <\/span>requests<\/span><\/a> for the provision of lethal aid to Kyiv against Moscow\u2019s threat of <\/span>retribution<\/span><\/a> for such assistance. This diplomatic tightrope walk poses a significant challenge for Seoul.<\/span><\/p>\n Going forward, the Yoon administration\u2019s approach to the question of lethal support to Kyiv will likely hinge on the unfolding <\/span>effects<\/span><\/a> of the Wagner rebellion on the conflict itself.<\/span><\/p>\n The Wagner uprising, arguably driven in part by popular <\/span>discontent<\/span><\/a> among Russians with the war\u2019s progression, could significantly impact the trajectory of the conflict. Should the fallout from the Wagner mutiny critically impair Moscow\u2019s ability to sustain its military engagement in Ukraine, this could potentially alleviate the pressure on Seoul to provide lethal aid.<\/span><\/p>\n However, if instability in Russia exacerbates the Ukrainian conflict, <\/span>leading to an increase in casualties<\/span><\/a>, Yoon may confront increasing pressure to augment Seoul\u2019s support for Kyiv. This is especially pertinent given the <\/span>unprecedented degree of alignment<\/span><\/a> the Yoon administration has fostered between Seoul and NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n