{"id":2201513,"date":"2023-06-27T19:27:44","date_gmt":"2023-06-27T10:27:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2201513"},"modified":"2023-06-28T18:28:50","modified_gmt":"2023-06-28T09:28:50","slug":"caught-in-the-crossfire-how-seouls-intel-sharing-plans-jeopardize-china-ties","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/06\/caught-in-the-crossfire-how-seouls-intel-sharing-plans-jeopardize-china-ties\/","title":{"rendered":"Caught in the crossfire: How Seoul\u2019s intel-sharing plans jeopardize China ties"},"content":{"rendered":"

The U.S., Japan and South Korea <\/span>announced<\/span><\/a> plans earlier this month to establish a robust mechanism for sharing real-time data on North Korean missiles, as the three countries aim to fortify their collective response to DPRK threats.<\/span><\/p>\n

But while the mechanism enhances their ability to deal with North Korean launches, it simultaneously risks inflaming diplomatic relations with China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beijing views heightened cooperation among the three countries with suspicion, considering it a potential threat to its national security. And as Taiwan emerges as a flash point in U.S.-China tensions, it\u2019s becoming increasingly clear that South Korea likely needs to prepare for the consequences of a deterioration in ties with its largest neighbor.<\/span><\/p>\n

REAL-TIME SHARING<\/b><\/p>\n

The pending trilateral arrangement represents a significant evolution in the intelligence-sharing landscape among the U.S., South Korea and Japan. This arrangement draws on the existing strengths of each nation, hinging on geography and technological prowess to detect potential North Korean missile threats more effectively.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea and Japan\u2019s strategic geographical positioning allows each to play a crucial role in monitoring DPRK\u2019s missile activities. By virtue of proximity, South Korean radars can readily <\/span>detect<\/span><\/a> North Korean missiles in their early stages.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Japan\u2019s Aegis destroyers <\/span>contribute<\/span><\/a> an added layer of surveillance, effectively tracking submarine-launched missiles and monitoring the terminal stages of missile trajectories as they land near Japan\u2019s coastlines or in the Pacific Ocean.<\/span><\/p>\n

Intelligence collaboration is also integral to signals intelligence (SIGINT) operations. South Korea\u2019s capability in this realm has proven invaluable to the U.S., given the insights SIGINT provides. It is particularly useful for <\/span>generating early warnings<\/span><\/a> and offering insights into North Korean command and control systems, along with potential locations of its communication hubs.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s proximity to the North also permits an extensive network of listening posts across the country and on maritime outposts. These stations gather high-frequency radio signals used for <\/span>military communications<\/span><\/a>, alerting the allies to DPRK military activities.<\/span><\/p>\n

As the Yoon administration <\/span>emphasizes<\/span><\/a> enhancing intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance in its defense planning, South Korea\u2019s SIGINT capacity is poised to gain more prominence in the U.S.-ROK alliance. This effort supplements the existing <\/span>three-axis system<\/span><\/a>, strengthening the collective approach toward regional security.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida | Image: South Korean presidential office (Sept. 21, 2022)<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

CHINESE RESPONSE<\/b><\/p>\n

China\u2019s suspicion toward closer U.S.-ROK cooperation has been palpable. This was particularly evident in 2017 when Beijing retaliated economically against South Korea\u2019s decision to <\/span>deploy<\/span><\/a> the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system. The primary concern <\/span>articulated<\/span><\/a> by China was the potential use of THAAD radars for espionage activities on Chinese missile systems rather than solely monitoring North Korean activities.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Moon Jae-in administration managed to <\/span>broker an agreement<\/span><\/a> with China to reinstate normal economic relations. This arrangement was contingent on South Korea\u2019s adherence to a policy of \u201cthree nos\u201d: no additional THAAD deployment, no integration into a U.S.-led regional missile defense system and no formation of a trilateral alliance with the U.S. and Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the Yoon administration made clear early on that it would <\/span>not abide<\/span><\/a> by the three nos and <\/span>pursued<\/span><\/a> additional THAAD deployments. During his inaugural ministerial visit to China, ROK foreign minister Park Jin <\/span>conveyed<\/span><\/a> a clear message to then-Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, stating that the \u201cso-called three nos are not binding.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Beijing has not yet responded directly to the trilateral defense ministerial statement confirming the establishment of a real-time radar-sharing arrangement. However, a foreign ministry spokesperson has previously <\/span>warned<\/span><\/a> that such a trilateral intelligence pact could potentially \u201cratchet up an arms race,\u201d <\/span>insisting<\/span><\/a> that South Korea\u2019s compliance with the three nos was critical to prevent any potential impediments in bilateral relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beijing doubled down when Chinese foreign policy officials reportedly <\/span>relayed<\/span><\/a> a list of \u201cfour impossibles\u201d to the Yoon administration. This included a warning that bilateral cooperation would be untenable if South Korea were to adopt a pro-U.S., pro-Japanese foreign policy or if it were to infringe upon China\u2019s \u2018core interests,\u201d such as the Taiwan issue.<\/span><\/p>\n

The alleged warning is significant as South Korea is <\/span>poised<\/span><\/a> to host the ninth China-Japan-South Korea summit this year. This will be the first meeting of this kind since 2019, as the trilateral gathering was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Yoon administration has <\/span>hinted<\/span><\/a> at China’s perceived lack of enthusiasm toward the summit. It\u2019s plausible that Beijing could reference this trilateral intelligence collaboration as a reason for its refusal to participate in the meeting.<\/span><\/p>\n

THE TAIWAN ISSUE<\/b><\/p>\n

The possible deployment of South Korean intelligence assets in a Taiwan crisis scenario could amplify China\u2019s apprehension over an enhanced U.S.-ROK intelligence partnership.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While their current operations focus on North Korea, South Korea\u2019s mobile intelligence-gathering assets might possess the technical capacity to intercept signals, including radio communications and command and control systems, emanating from key Chinese army assets.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s Baekdu II planes and SIGINT ships have demonstrated the ability to gather signals from the China-North Korea border over 310 miles (500 kilometers) away. These platforms operate primarily in the Yellow Sea, close to China\u2019s Northern Theater Command Navy headquarters in Qingdao, which <\/span>hosts<\/span><\/a> some of its most <\/span>advanced<\/span><\/a> naval assets.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, South Korean platforms may be able to intercept signals from the Eastern Theater Command Navy based in Ningbo. This base has been instrumental in China\u2019s East Sea Fleet, conducting operations in the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea \u2014 two hotly contested maritime areas. In the event of military action against Taiwan, the Eastern Theater Command would <\/span>assume<\/span><\/a> a central role.<\/span><\/p>\n

In this context, South Korea might enhance U.S. indication and warning efforts, potentially providing an early warning system for Chinese military activities. But South Korea could also choose not to contribute, owing to its limited resources and the need to focus on its primary security challenge from North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nevertheless, a possible expansion of U.S.-ROK SIGINT cooperation beyond its current North Korea focus underscores South Korea\u2019s value to U.S. intelligence operations in Northeast Asia and China\u2019s apprehensions about any deepening of their alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol holding talks in South Korea on May 21, 2022 | Image: The White House<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

WHITHER INTELLIGENCE COOPERATION?<\/b><\/p>\n

There are abundant opportunities for enhanced intelligence cooperation in a bilateral U.S.-ROK setting or within a trilateral framework involving Japan. As part of these expanding collaborations, the U.S. and South Korea are also developing the \u201cNew Cyber Strategic Framework.\u201d According to the <\/span>South Korean government<\/span><\/a>, this framework aims to \u201cdeepen the information alliance that can be compared to the Five Eyes in cybersecurity.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The U.S. stands to gain considerably by enhancing intelligence-gathering with South Korea. The ROK\u2019s ongoing investments to modernize its SIGINT systems and strengthen domestic intelligence capabilities merit recognition and support.<\/span><\/p>\n

The U.S., with its advanced space-based intelligence platforms, is also in a <\/span>unique position<\/span><\/a> to augment situational awareness of the Korean Peninsula. Its <\/span>space-based infrared missile detection systems<\/span><\/a> are particularly notable as they can promptly and accurately detect missile launches by monitoring infrared signatures.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet while South Korea has made intelligence collaboration a cornerstone of its military strategy, there remains the risk that this will further strain relations with China.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Although Seoul\u2019s official position is that it sees \u201cno need\u201d to sour ties with Beijing, South Korea will likely have to brace for a deterioration in ties as it broadens intelligence cooperation with the U.S. and Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a>Technology & Cyber<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The U.S., Japan and South Korea announced plans earlier this month to establish a robust mechanism for sharing real-time data on North Korean missiles, as the three countries aim to fortify their collective response to DPRK threats. 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