{"id":2201503,"date":"2023-06-26T17:30:37","date_gmt":"2023-06-26T08:30:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2201503"},"modified":"2023-06-27T19:31:02","modified_gmt":"2023-06-27T10:31:02","slug":"an-eye-on-china-south-korea-charts-a-course-for-closer-ties-with-vietnam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/06\/an-eye-on-china-south-korea-charts-a-course-for-closer-ties-with-vietnam\/","title":{"rendered":"An eye on China, South Korea charts a course for closer ties with Vietnam"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol recently embarked on a three-day state visit to Vietnam to <\/span>reinforce<\/span><\/a> bilateral relations between the two nations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Throughout the visit, Yoon emphasized his commitment to facilitating rich cultural exchanges with the Southeast Asian country and fostering economic ties, an area of particular importance as Seoul looks to reduce its dependence on China.<\/span><\/p>\n

He also made clear South Korea\u2019s interest in deepening defense links with Hanoi, likely angling in part to find a new market for ROK weapons manufacturers.<\/span><\/p>\n

But while Yoon\u2019s visit sketched out a promising blueprint of opportunities, it isn\u2019t devoid of potential pitfalls for South Korean companies, from rules limiting foreign investment to a lack of clarity around market reforms. And as Seoul charts this course, stakeholders will need to carefully weigh the risks and benefits.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

GROWING ECONOMY<\/b><\/p>\n

The focus of Seoul\u2019s bid to boost ties with Hanoi is Vietnam\u2019s emerging consumer class. This <\/span>population<\/span><\/a> is nearly twice the size of South Korea\u2019s and is highly educated and immersed in a <\/span>dynamic startup ecosystem<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vietnam\u2019s economic indicators present a compelling case for this initiative. The nation has consistently exhibited an upward growth trend, with its gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by more than <\/span>8%<\/span><\/a> in 2022. Even amid global economic headwinds, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Vietnam\u2019s economy will grow by 5.8% this year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Reflecting this upward trend, Yoon\u2019s state visit was accompanied by a 205-member business delegation. This group, the largest under the current administration, included leading figures from heavyweight South Korean firms such as Samsung Electronics, SK Group and Hyundai Motor Group.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vietnam is familiar terrain for South Korean enterprises. According to the ROK presidential office, around <\/span>9,000<\/span><\/a> South Korean companies currently operate in the country. These businesses have a pronounced impact on the country\u2019s exports and GDP.<\/span><\/p>\n

Through further integration with Vietnam, these firms have the opportunity to engage with a dynamic and rapidly expanding consumer base.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Ho Chi Minh City skyline, Oct. 10, 2017 | Image: Wikimedia Commons<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

FORTIFYING SUPPLY CHAINS<\/b><\/p>\n

Concerns about South Korea\u2019s reliance on China for key materials have ballooned in recent years, driving Seoul to look to Vietnam as it seeks to diversify.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s supply chain structure exhibits twice the vulnerability of the U.S. to intermediate goods manufactured in China, according to a <\/span>2021 study<\/span><\/a> by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET).<\/span><\/p>\n

A 2021 <\/span>shortage of urea water solution<\/span><\/a>, a crucial component in agricultural fertilizers and diesel exhaust fluid, highlighted this vulnerability, as China introduced export restrictions aimed at easing domestic supply bottlenecks.<\/span><\/p>\n

The KIET study earmarked 1,088 items, including urea, silicon, lithium and magnesium, as \u201csensitive,\u201d indicating South Korea\u2019s reliance on China for more than 50% of these supplies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, South Korea <\/span>imports<\/span><\/a> nearly 95% of its major minerals, with China providing 84% of lithium hydroxide and 69% of cobalt hydroxide imports \u2014 substances critical to lithium-ion battery cathode materials production. The demand for these minerals has spiked in recent years and is expected to accelerate due to the worldwide drive toward achieving net-zero objectives.<\/span><\/p>\n

Recognizing that Vietnam is home to the world\u2019s <\/span>second-largest<\/span><\/a> estimated deposits of rare earth minerals, Yoon views South Korean investments in Vietnam as a powerful catalyst for the ROK\u2019s economy and a potential solution to lessen its dependency on China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon\u2019s desire to <\/span>assist<\/span><\/a> Vietnam in achieving its ambitious goal of becoming an advanced nation by 2045 indicates Seoul\u2019s commitment to a long-term, mutually advantageous partnership.<\/span><\/p>\n

DEFENSE COOPERATION<\/b><\/p>\n

The decision to elevate ROK-Vietnam relations to a \u201c<\/span>comprehensive strategic partnership<\/span><\/a>\u201d in December marked a significant increase in the scale and intensity of collaboration between the two nations. And during his visit to Hanoi, Yoon pledged to aid Vietnam in enhancing its capacity to enforce maritime law, contributing to regional maritime security and expanding bilateral defense industry cooperation.<\/span><\/p>\n

The South Korean president also <\/span>expressed<\/span><\/a> hope for expanded defense industry collaboration between the two countries, a sector he once <\/span>identified<\/span><\/a> as a \u201cnew future growth engine.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition, South Korea\u2019s Coast Guard and Vietnam\u2019s Ministry of Public Security <\/span>signed<\/span><\/a> a memorandum of understanding (MOU) under which the ROK will help bolster Vietnam\u2019s maritime security capabilities.<\/span><\/p>\n

This agreement follows a mutual decision by the countries\u2019 defense ministers to <\/span>revise<\/span><\/a> a 2010 MOU on defense cooperation, opening the way for collaboration in demining, cybersecurity, educational exchanges and defense technology.<\/span><\/p>\n

In March, both countries\u2019 defense ministers also established a framework for regular naval consultations and discussed South Korea\u2019s plans to transfer a patrol boat to Vietnam.<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul previously enhanced Hanoi\u2019s naval abilities by <\/span>transferring<\/span><\/a> two second-hand Pohang-class corvettes to the Vietnamese navy. However, an opportunity exists for South Korea to become a more prominent arms partner for Vietnam, especially as Hanoi seeks to reduce its reliance on Russian weaponry.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given South Korea\u2019s history of <\/span>technology transfers<\/span><\/a> and the relative cost-effectiveness of its weapons platforms, Vietnam may be interested in pursuing closer defense cooperation with Seoul.<\/span><\/p>\n

ROK defense minister Lee Jong-sup has notably invited his Vietnamese counterpart to attend the Seoul International Aerospace and Defense Exhibition (<\/span>ADEX<\/span><\/a>) slated for October, an opportunity for South Korea to further cement the bilateral partnership.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

The Pohang-class PCC (Patrol Combat Corvette) ROKS Yeosu before it was transferred to Vietnam’s Navy, Nov. 10, 2015 via ROK Armed Forces Flickr<\/a>, (CC BY-SA 2.0<\/a>)<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

POTENTIAL PITFALLS<\/b><\/p>\n

Despite the potential advantages, South Korean investments in Vietnam face significant risks.<\/span><\/p>\n

In a 2021 <\/span>report<\/span><\/a>, Freedom House indicated that Vietnam\u2019s stringent internet controls have led to high levels of online self-censorship.Such an environment could pose an operational hazard for South Korean companies that depend heavily on a free and open internet for smooth functioning. Companies failing to comply with Hanoi\u2019s <\/span>directives<\/span><\/a> on content removal may face severe penalties, impacting their operations and reputation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another risk lies in Vietnam\u2019s <\/span>potential failure<\/span><\/a> to elevate its stock market to emerging economy status by 2025. Any delay could deter foreign investments, including those from South Korea. The uncertainty surrounding market reforms and the status upgrade creates a precarious investment climate.<\/span><\/p>\n

The ROK\u2019s economic interests in Vietnam also face challenges due to strict foreign ownership caps that limit the rights of foreign investors, according to a 2022 <\/span>report<\/span><\/a> by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI).<\/span><\/p>\n

Such limitations are particularly troublesome for sectors like banking. Vietnam\u2019s central bank <\/span>seeks to reduce<\/span><\/a> the maximum stake investors can hold in Vietnamese banks, permitting individual investors to possess up to 3% of the shares of a credit institution, a reduction from the current 5%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, the country\u2019s ongoing <\/span>electricity crisis<\/span><\/a> could cause problems for South Korean companies. Regular power cuts triggered by heat waves and inadequate supply have forced many factories to <\/span>suspend production<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Hanoi <\/span>approved<\/span><\/a> a national plan in May to transition away from coal and explore wind and gas alternatives, it remains to be seen whether Vietnam will manage to break its dependence on coal, given the frequency of power outages.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the potential pitfalls, the multitude of bilateral agreements signed last week and <\/span>declining trade volumes<\/span><\/a> between South Korea and China mean that ROK businesses will push ahead with investments in Vietnam\u2019s frontier economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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