{"id":2201360,"date":"2023-06-13T19:07:56","date_gmt":"2023-06-13T10:07:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2201360"},"modified":"2023-06-14T18:31:08","modified_gmt":"2023-06-14T09:31:08","slug":"the-pathless-path-cho-kuk-hints-at-independent-run-in-south-korean-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/06\/the-pathless-path-cho-kuk-hints-at-independent-run-in-south-korean-election\/","title":{"rendered":"The \u2018pathless path\u2019: Cho Kuk hints at independent run in South Korean election"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korea is once again bracing for a significant political shakeup. Former justice minister Cho Kuk is apparently feeling out the prospect of running for parliament in next year\u2019s national elections, sending ripples across the political landscape, particularly within the ranks of the main opposition Democratic Party (DP).<\/span><\/p>\n

The potential implications of his prospective candidacy on South Korea\u2019s political dynamics are sparking significant <\/span>debate<\/span><\/a>. Cho is a well-known but divisive public figure, serving as the senior secretary to the president for civil affairs and briefly as justice minister in the Moon administration before he was forced to resign over allegations of abuse of power.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cho met with Moon over the weekend, their first public face-to-face since his resignation in 2019 amid widespread protests.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIn this era of regression and backsliding, when all aspects of the Moon Jae-in administration are being negated and vilified, I am contemplating my next move,\u201d Cho wrote on <\/span>social media<\/span><\/a> after the encounter. \u201cI shall venture the pathless path, devoid of any map or compass.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This cryptic reference to a \u201cpathless path\u201d has led to <\/span>a raft of speculation<\/span><\/a> that Cho may try for public office, and his next opportunity to do so is during the general elections in April 2024. Politicos expect he would do so as an independent, distancing himself from the DP.<\/span><\/p>\n

TURBULENT PAST<\/b><\/p>\n

Cho Kuk\u2019s brief stint as South Korea\u2019s justice minister from Sept. to Oct. 2019 was marred by controversy and <\/span>public protests<\/span><\/a>, ultimately culminating in his resignation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cho found himself at the epicenter of multiple allegations. Conservative commentators frequently accused him of <\/span>plagiarizing his master\u2019s thesis<\/span><\/a> in 1989. Additionally, he was embroiled in <\/span>tax delinquency allegations<\/span><\/a>, further complicated by controversies involving a <\/span>private equity fund<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

His family\u2019s alleged involvement in this fund only added fuel to the fire.<\/span><\/p>\n

The most damning of the allegations pertained to his daughter, Cho Min, who was accused of <\/span>fabricating<\/span><\/a> her academic records to gain admission into elite universities. The allegations, once surfaced, led to widespread student-led protests against Cho, leading the DP <\/span>to lose the support<\/span><\/a> of largely progressive young voters.<\/span><\/p>\n

His wife, Chung Kyung-sim, was found culpable in a case of academic fraud, wherein she forged documents to facilitate their daughter\u2019s college and graduate school admissions. The fallout was severe: Chung was <\/span>sentenced<\/span><\/a> to a four-year prison term and slapped with a hefty fine of $393,000 (500 million won).<\/span><\/p>\n

Cho Kuk, too, received a <\/span>two-year prison sentence<\/span><\/a> and a fine of $4,700 (6 million won) in February for his involvement in forging documents for his children\u2019s higher education admissions, among other charges. Cho\u2019s legal woes remain ongoing, and the string of scandals led to his <\/span>dismissal<\/span><\/a> from his teaching position at Seoul National University on Tuesday.<\/span><\/p>\n

In his weekend post, Cho lamented that he and his family had to endure \u201chell\u201d over the past few years.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Former South Korean President Moon Jae-in and former Justice Minister Cho Kuk have dinner together, June 11, 2023 | Image: Cho Kuk via Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

A POSSIBLE WAY BACK<\/b><\/p>\n

Cho\u2019s return to policymaking would mean several things for the main opposition DP. A potential independent run from such a high-profile figure risks splintering the party. This is especially true as some DP lawmakers, <\/span>disillusioned<\/span><\/a> with Lee Jae-myung\u2019s leadership, may find an appealing alternative in Cho.<\/span><\/p>\n

In South Korean party politics, the establishment perceives one\u2019s political pedigree and loyalties as an important factor for legitimacy as leader. Cho is widely perceived as a <\/span>spiritual successor<\/span><\/a> to former President Moon Jae-in, unlike an \u201c<\/span>outsider<\/span><\/a>\u201d like Lee Jae-myung. So, Cho could catalyze division within the DP\u2019s base that could be difficult to repair.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the broader electorate, particularly the pivotal middle-ground voters, might be wary of the litany of allegations that have dogged Cho\u2019s career, he continues to enjoy <\/span>strong support<\/span><\/a> from those loyal to Moon Jae-in, who see his legal woes as political persecution.<\/span><\/p>\n

In South Korea\u2019s fluid political landscape, which has proven susceptible to personality politics, Cho could use his high name recognition and links to Moon\u2019s presidency to his advantage.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

By taking a firm stance against what the DP often labels as <\/span>judicial authoritarianism<\/span><\/a> from ruling conservatives and President Yoon Suk-yeol, Cho could galvanize his support base and win over middle-ground voters.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cho\u2019s suggestion that he might run as an independent candidate could be a calculated move. By running as an independent, he could distance himself from Lee Jae-myung and offer progressive voters an alternative choice.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This strategy may prove particularly successful if Lee continues to find himself embroiled in scandals and prosecutorial investigations regarding <\/span>alleged corruption<\/span><\/a> while he was mayor of Seongnam, a suburb of Seoul.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, Lee\u2019s position as the opposition leader might not be as firm as he would like others to believe \u2014 much to Cho\u2019s benefit. When Lee spearheaded a large anti-government rally in February against the Yoon administration, only 100 of the 168 DP lawmakers in parliament stood by him, hinting at a lack of uniform loyalty within the party.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although Lee might not be facing open challenges to his leadership, dozens of lawmakers\u2019 apparent lack of enthusiasm hints that he does not command the loyalty of everyone within his party.<\/span><\/p>\n

Recent events have further eroded Lee\u2019s credibility. A notable example was a diplomatic incident in which Lee <\/span>remained silent<\/span><\/a> while Chinese Ambassador Xing Haiming criticized Seoul\u2019s foreign policy for a full 15 minutes, even when he appeared to threaten economic pain if the Yoon administration \u201cbets on China\u2019s defeat.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee drew further jeers last when his choice to lead a party committee was <\/span>forced to withdraw<\/span><\/a> just hours after his appointment, after the candidate\u2019s past comments denying that North Korea sunk a South Korean naval ship came to light.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Recent public <\/span>polling data<\/span><\/a> suggests Democrats are losing support. While the People Power Party (PPP) currently enjoys a 31% approval rating, the DP lags behind at 26%. Interestingly, the public appears evenly divided on their expectations for next year\u2019s parliamentary elections, with the PPP and the DP each earning the backing of 43% of respondents.<\/span><\/p>\n

With Lee\u2019s ongoing scandals and recent credibility losses, Cho Kuk may find the path open for an impactful return to the political scene.<\/span><\/p>\n

CHALLENGING THE STATUS QUO<\/b><\/p>\n

However, even as an independent candidate, a Cho political run could spur the ruling PPP to rally its base by leveraging his past controversies, seeking to consolidate support ahead of and during the parliamentary elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

An election run by the former justice minister undoubtedly carries a mix of risks and potential rewards. The impact of his entry on the DP and the broader political scene in South Korea could be profound. His candidacy could test the DP\u2019s unity and serve as a litmus test for the\u00a0 electorate\u2019s attitudes toward allegations of misconduct against political figures.<\/span><\/p>\n

The DP now finds itself approaching a pivotal juncture. Cho\u2019s potential return to politics presents a multifaceted challenge to the current status quo, potentially putting the party\u2019s unity and future direction on the line.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Arius Derr<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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