{"id":2201274,"date":"2023-06-05T18:52:53","date_gmt":"2023-06-05T09:52:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2201274"},"modified":"2023-06-06T19:08:24","modified_gmt":"2023-06-06T10:08:24","slug":"in-south-korea-demographics-are-turning-classrooms-into-retirement-homes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/06\/in-south-korea-demographics-are-turning-classrooms-into-retirement-homes\/","title":{"rendered":"In South Korea, demographics are turning classrooms into retirement homes"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korea is wrestling with what may be the world\u2019s most daunting demographic challenge. With a <\/span>rate of aging<\/span><\/a> that outpaces any developed nation and a fertility rate that lags behind all other countries, South Korea could shrink by nearly half its size within the century. These demographic pressures are particularly evident in two key areas: schools and rural communities.<\/span><\/p>\n

To understand the scale of this shift, one need only look to the past. In 1960, South Korea <\/span>outstripped<\/span><\/a> every contemporary Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) country in birth rate, boasting a robust average of just over six births per woman.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Fast forward six decades and this figure is all but a relic of history. By 2022, the fertility rate had plummeted to a startling <\/span>0.78<\/span><\/a>. Despite sustained government efforts to reverse this downward spiral, signs indicate this rate will drop even further.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Last year, South Korea\u2019s population, which <\/span>peaked<\/span><\/a> at 51.8 million in 2019, began to recede.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

With dwindling student populations and rapidly aging rural constituencies, these sectors are at the forefront of South Korea\u2019s shifting demographic realities. The question for policymakers now is not whether they should respond but how \u2014 and with what degree of urgency.<\/span><\/p>\n

DISAPPEARING SCHOOLS<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea is witnessing a rapid contraction in its school-aged population. In 2010, <\/span>10 million<\/span><\/a> young South Koreans were of school age. But even then, that figure was a significant drop from the peak of <\/span>14.4 million<\/span><\/a> in 1980.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

By 2022, this number dwindled further to <\/span>7.4 million<\/span><\/a>. Over a decade, from 2012 to 2022, enrollment in primary and secondary schools <\/span>fell<\/span><\/a> from 7.38 million to 5.8 million. Given the country\u2019s meager birth rate, a continued decline in these figures seems inevitable.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

The declining trend of South Korea’s school-aged population in South Korea from 1980 to 2022, data from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

Today, it\u2019s not uncommon for schools not to receive <\/span>a single new student<\/span><\/a>, suggesting widespread closures of primary and secondary schools may be imminent. And this isn\u2019t just in remote areas: A high school in Seoul <\/span>closed in April<\/span><\/a> due to a lack of students, and it won\u2019t be the last.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Small private universities in rural areas face an existential crisis. Operating within a hierarchical system that often relegates such institutions to the <\/span>bottom rung<\/span><\/a>, these schools have been wrestling with a <\/span>chronic shortage<\/span><\/a> of applicants for over a decade.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The pool of university-eligible individuals, which stood at approximately 460,000 in 2020, is projected to nosedive to 280,000 by 2040, a <\/span>decrease<\/span><\/a> of about 40%. As rural institutions have always been relegated to the bottom rung, South Korean universities will likely collapse in the vulnerable provinces before reaching the larger cities.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unfortunately, these beleaguered universities have few escape routes. Allowing university founders the right to sell their universities might provide a lifeline, but such transactions are currently <\/span>illegal<\/span><\/a> in South Korea. Despite a proposed bill in the National Assembly to allow such sales, progress remains <\/span>stalled<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The specter of this crisis can be seen in the approximately <\/span>20 \u201cghost campuses\u201d<\/span><\/a> that have sprung up around the country. These once-thriving educational spaces, where students once studied, now stand mostly or entirely abandoned. One poignant example is the deserted campus of <\/span>Hanlyo University<\/span><\/a> in one of the southern provinces.<\/span><\/p>\n

LONE BRIGHT SPOT<\/b><\/p>\n

The majority of primary and secondary schools in South Korea are either national or public, meaning that secondary school teachers are <\/span>civil servants<\/span><\/a> and the facilities are state-owned. This grants those teachers a measure of state protection, even amid declining enrollment.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In fact, with fewer students, budgets allocated to South Korea\u2019s primary and secondary schools are now running a <\/span>surplus<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korean law, originating from the early 1970s when the nation had a high birth rate, mandates that <\/span>20.79%<\/span><\/a> of domestic tax revenue is earmarked for the primary and secondary education budget. This regulation is still in effect today, despite the changing demographic reality.<\/span><\/p>\n

The cost of public secondary education in South Korea stands at around <\/span>$15,000<\/span><\/a>, the second-highest in the OECD. Given the surplus funds in the education budget and a national treasury in deficit, the government is seeking ways to <\/span>reallocate<\/span><\/a> these excess resources to other sectors.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

A person holding a stress ball, Nov. 18, 2016 | Image: Pexels via Matthias Zomer<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

ENDANGERED RURAL LIFE<\/b><\/p>\n

Another sector where the impact of South Korea\u2019s dwindling population is already perceptible is in the country\u2019s rural villages. These communities, predominantly <\/span>populated<\/span><\/a> by older residents, face an uncertain future given the demographic trends.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea is divided into <\/span>228<\/span><\/a> self-governing administrative-territorial units comprising cities, urban districts and rural counties. The number of these units believed to be on the verge of \u201cextinction\u201d varies, depending on the demographic forecasting model used.<\/span><\/p>\n

For instance, a recent <\/span>report<\/span><\/a> by the interior ministry identified 89 regions as facing depopulation. In contrast, the Korea Employment Information Service <\/span>forecasted<\/span><\/a> that nearly half of the 228 cities, towns and districts could eventually disappear. Meanwhile, the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade takes a more optimistic view, <\/span>predicting<\/span><\/a> that only 56 units are at risk of disappearing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Government <\/span>subsidies<\/span><\/a> have long been distributed to South Korean provinces in an attempt to stem the tide of population decline. In 2003, for instance, the government <\/span>established<\/span><\/a> a special account specifically to tackle this issue, funding projects in various provinces.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the effectiveness of these measures has been questionable at best, as cities, counties and districts frequently spend these grants on facilities with negligible impact on fertility rates, such as <\/span>gyms<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Though many local governments across city, county and district lines are making concerted efforts to maintain their population levels, these endeavors are often <\/span>unsuccessful<\/span><\/a>. It is increasingly likely that numerous Korean villages and smaller towns will become ghost towns.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

One particularly symbolic case illustrating these demographic shifts is that of a primary school in Gyeonggi Province, near Seoul. This school was recently <\/span>repurposed<\/span><\/a> into a nursing home, reflecting the village\u2019s transition from a once-vibrant population to one predominantly comprised of elderly residents.<\/span><\/p>\n

Consequently, the future of the Korean countryside may be marked by a defining tableau of deserted villages, abandoned homes and expansive yet vacant facilities. Such a scenario paints a stark picture of South Korea\u2019s demographic challenges and the potential long-term consequences for the quality of life outside a major urban center.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Culture & Society<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korea is wrestling with what may be the world\u2019s most daunting demographic challenge. With a rate of aging that outpaces any developed nation and a fertility rate that lags behind all other countries, South Korea could shrink by nearly half its size within the century. 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