{"id":2201135,"date":"2023-05-24T18:21:26","date_gmt":"2023-05-24T09:21:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2201135"},"modified":"2023-05-24T18:21:26","modified_gmt":"2023-05-24T09:21:26","slug":"why-south-korea-and-japans-radar-link-might-be-bad-news-for-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/05\/why-south-korea-and-japans-radar-link-might-be-bad-news-for-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Why South Korea and Japan\u2019s radar link plan might be bad news for China"},"content":{"rendered":"

Japanese cabinet secretary Hirokazu Matsuno <\/span>confirmed<\/span><\/a> this month that negotiations are underway between the U.S., South Korea and Japan to reach a consensus on sharing real-time data about North Korean missile launches.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While no official agreement has been concluded, these diplomatic discussions signal an intention to fortify collaborative efforts in countering North Korea\u2019s nuclear threats.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, such an accord might significantly complicate South Korea\u2019s diplomatic ties with China. It stands at risk of overstepping the parameters of two core principles from the \u201cThree Nos\u201d policy \u2014 a pledge made by the Moon Jae-in administration that current President Yoon Suk-yeol seems less than eager to stick to.<\/span><\/p>\n

THE THREE NOS<\/b><\/p>\n

There is heated debate about the nature of the \u201cThree Nos\u201d policy. During a tense period in the relationship between the ROK and China, largely precipitated by Seoul\u2019s decision to <\/span>host<\/span><\/a> U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile batteries, the then newly inaugurated Moon Jae-in administration sought to repair strained ties with its largest trade partner.<\/span><\/p>\n

This diplomatic initiative culminated in a <\/span>bilateral meeting<\/span><\/a> on Oct. 31, 2017, where both nations agreed to set aside their disputes and reset relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Central to this reconciliation was the Moon administration’s declaration of the \u201cThree Nos\u201d policy, as <\/span>announced<\/span><\/a> by then-foreign minister Kang Kyung-wha. This policy stated that Seoul would refrain from deploying additional THAAD missile systems, participating in U.S. missile defense networks, or engaging in trilateral security cooperation with the U.S. and Japan that could evolve into a military alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Throughout this period, neither South Korea nor China altered their fundamental positions. China remained adamantly against the deployment of THAAD anti-missile batteries. Meanwhile, a ROK foreign ministry spokesperson <\/span>emphasized<\/span><\/a> that any potential constraints on South Korea\u2019s sovereignty and security were not subject to consultation with Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fast forward to Aug. 2022, ROK foreign minister Park Jin clarified that the \u201cThree Nos\u201d policy was not a codified approach to China. During a press conference in China, he <\/span>asserted<\/span><\/a>, \u201cI made it clear to the Chinese side that the THAAD deployment is a matter of our security and sovereignty against North Korea\u2019s nuclear and missile threats.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

However, that same day, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin <\/span>highlighted<\/span><\/a> the importance China attached to the ROK government\u2019s previous \u201cofficial announcement\u201d (\u5ba3\u793a \u2014 a declaration that was publicized widely) of its \u201cThree Nos\u201d policy.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Indonesia, Nov. 15, 2022 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

DATA SHARING AGREEMENT<\/b><\/p>\n

While the proposed real-time data-sharing agreement concerning North Korean missile launches may not technically violate South Korea\u2019s self-imposed \u201cThree Nos\u201d policy, China will likely perceive it as an attempt by the Yoon administration to erode its relevancy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So far, Yoon has <\/span>expressed<\/span><\/a> his opposition to the \u201cThree Nos\u201d policy, yet he has refrained from taking any action that would overtly violate it. Yoon\u2019s rhetoric may come across as more hawkish, but it seems he is hesitant to trigger more economic retaliation from China.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Although the proposed data-sharing agreement is not directly related to the THAAD deployment, it does raise questions regarding possible infringement upon the other two elements of the \u201cThree Nos\u201d policy.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea and Japan already have the capacity to exchange information under the <\/span>General Security of Military Information Agreement<\/span><\/a> (GSOMIA). However, the new data-sharing agreement could potentially result in these two nations <\/span>linking their radar systems<\/span><\/a> through a U.S. system.<\/span><\/p>\n

The establishment of such a connection would essentially create a U.S.-led network, which would allow for the sharing of real-time data regarding North Korean missile launches. This arrangement appears to closely align with the characteristics of a U.S.-led missile defense network.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is also worth noting that such an agreement would inevitably improve not only the intelligence regarding missile activities from North Korea but also those originating from China.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A generous interpretation suggests that, due to its primary emphasis on information sharing, the proposed agreement may not cross the threshold to be considered as a form of missile defense. But this assumption relies on a strict definition of \u201cdefense,\u201d that is, possessing the capability to intercept and neutralize missile threats.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, it\u2019s doubtful that China would lean towards such an understanding. Choo Jae-woo, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Kyung Hee University, predicts that China is likely to interpret this agreement as an initiation into a U.S.-led missile defense network.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

“It will be the first knot that will tie [South Korea] into the network,” Choo explained to <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

From China\u2019s perspective, this agreement signifies South Korea\u2019s trajectory toward adopting a stance that might culminate in potential offensive operations against Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c[The process unfolds starting from] data sharing, [evolving into] system sharing including reconnaissance, radar monitoring, surveillance and defense system sharing,\u201d Choo elaborated.\u00a0 \u201cIn the end, it may transpire into offense operations if defensive efforts extend for a prolonged period.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol talking with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a bilateral summit on the sidelines of the G20 Indonesia summit on Nov. 15, 2022 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

TRILATERAL ALLIANCE<\/b><\/p>\n

At present, the establishment of a trilateral alliance is not under consideration, yet the proposed data-sharing agreement unmistakably signifies enhanced trilateral cooperation on a sensitive security issue. Choo points out there are historical precedents for this type of trilateral cooperation.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe Moon administration was the first to engage in trilateral foreign ministerial dialogue in Feb. 2022, followed by a trilateral Joint Chiefs of Staff dialogue in March before ending its term. In fact, Yoon is basically inheriting Moon\u2019s legacy on this particular question,\u201d Choo told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, what sets this proposal apart is the fact that it emerges amid a wave of <\/span>warming South Korea-Japan relations<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This shift follows years of strained relations between the two nations over contentious historical disputes, such as forced labor during World War II. Yoon\u2019s <\/span>controversial decision <\/span><\/a>to provide compensation to victims without seeking contributions from Japan has paved the way for renewed diplomatic engagement between the two nations.<\/span><\/p>\n

For China, the prospect of closer South Korea-Japan ties is worrisome. Adding to China\u2019s concerns is the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party\u2019s previously stated intentions to <\/span>revise<\/span><\/a> Japan\u2019s post-war pacifist constitution.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cChina has accepted, and at times even appreciated, the U.S.-Japan alliance because it served China\u2019s strategic interest by putting a lid on Japan\u2019s military ambitions, or the revival of it. But now, China is now disappointed in the U.S. for changing its stance,\u201d Choo explained.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

SungYong Lee, a professor at the University of Otago in New Zealand, also believes that Yoon\u2019s approach carries risks. \u201c[Regardless of] whether these developments formally constitute a breach of the \u201cThree Nos,\u201d China might still interpret them with alarm,\u201d Lee told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given China\u2019s view of the ROK as the <\/span>weakest link<\/span><\/a> of the three democratic nations involved, <\/span>some type of action<\/span><\/a> against South Korea is expected in the near future.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, the Yoon administration has not indicated it has personal relations with Chinese officials or effective communication channels with Beijing. The majority of pro-U.S. figures in key roles within the administration may limit opportunities for Yoon Suk-yeol to gain a comprehensive understanding of China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Should it come to pass, the data-sharing agreement would mark a significant departure from the \u201cThree Nos\u201d policy. If an agreement is reached, it will be crucial to pay close attention to China\u2019s response and likely repercussions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This represents a critical juncture for South Korea\u2019s ties with China, as the country is treading a fine line on the brink of a foreign policy sea change.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Japanese cabinet secretary Hirokazu Matsuno confirmed this month that negotiations are underway between the U.S., South Korea and Japan to reach a consensus on sharing real-time data about North Korean missile launches.\u00a0 While no official agreement has been concluded, these diplomatic discussions signal an intention to fortify collaborative efforts in countering North Korea\u2019s nuclear threats. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10207,"featured_media":2201141,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,28],"class_list":["post-2201135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy South Korea and Japan\u2019s radar link plan might be bad news for China - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/05\/why-south-korea-and-japans-radar-link-might-be-bad-news-for-china\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why South Korea and Japan\u2019s radar link plan might be bad news for China - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Japanese cabinet secretary Hirokazu Matsuno confirmed this month that negotiations are underway between the U.S., South Korea and Japan to reach a consensus on sharing real-time data about North Korean missile launches.\u00a0 While no official agreement has been concluded, these diplomatic discussions signal an intention to fortify collaborative efforts in countering North Korea\u2019s nuclear threats. 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