{"id":2201085,"date":"2023-05-19T19:11:38","date_gmt":"2023-05-19T10:11:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2201085"},"modified":"2023-05-22T20:16:01","modified_gmt":"2023-05-22T11:16:01","slug":"chinas-wolf-warrior-rhetoric-signals-rough-times-ahead-for-south-korea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/05\/chinas-wolf-warrior-rhetoric-signals-rough-times-ahead-for-south-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s \u2018wolf warrior\u2019 rhetoric signals rough times ahead for South Korea"},"content":{"rendered":"

Beijing\u2019s increasingly antagonistic \u201c<\/span>wolf warrior<\/span><\/a>\u201d rhetoric toward the Yoon administration signals a critical shift in the dynamics of ROK-China relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s <\/span>remarks<\/span><\/a> ahead of his trip to Washington in April, where he opposed any attempts to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by force, elicited a furious response from China.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korean media <\/span>quoted<\/span><\/a> a \u201cChinese source in Beijing,\u201d stating, \u201cChina sees this as a sign that South Korea has become more aligned with the U.S., and it will probably wait to see the outcome of the upcoming South Korea-U.S. summit before making a concrete response.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s state-run media outlet <\/span>Global Times<\/span><\/i> launched a critique of Yoon in late April, accusing him of <\/span>bowing to Japan<\/span><\/a> to win favor with Washington. The outlet labeled Yoon the \u201c<\/span>least independent-minded<\/span><\/a>\u201d South Korean president thus far.<\/span><\/p>\n

When the South Korean Embassy in Beijing <\/span>expressed<\/span><\/a> its objection to these sentiments, the <\/span>Global Times<\/span><\/i> issued<\/span><\/a> a stark warning: Seoul risked a \u201ccollapse of the situation in Northeast Asia,\u201d a scenario it described as \u201cunbearable\u201d for South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

There are other signs that China is adopting a <\/span>more confrontational<\/span><\/a> posture, with the ROK foreign ministry confirming that Korean businesspeople in China shared <\/span>rumors<\/span><\/a> on social media that Beijing might deploy tactics akin to those utilized during the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) dispute from 2016 to 2017.<\/span><\/p>\n

An <\/span>editorial cartoon<\/span><\/a> in <\/span>China Daily<\/span><\/i>, a state-run English-language daily newspaper, recently included the ROK in its criticism of the U.S. and its allies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Recently, a Chinese academic <\/span>wrote<\/span><\/a> in <\/span>Global Times<\/span><\/i>: \u201cThe atmosphere\u2026is a result of Seoul\u2019s attempts to return to the diplomatic attitude of the Cold War and its frequent suspected interference in China\u2019s internal affairs [i.e., Taiwan].\u201d He warned that Seoul\u2019s current path is not conducive to developing relations and will \u201caffect regional peace and stability.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Former South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Chinese leader Xi Jinping shaking hands ahead of the bilateral summit during the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Osaka, Dec. 19, 2019 | Image: Korean Culture and Information Service<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

CONCRETE RESPONSES<\/b><\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s \u201cconcrete response\u201d to Seoul\u2019s latest overtures seems imminent. At a minimum, Beijing will refuse to make the relationship better.<\/span><\/p>\n

Previous conservative presidents had good relations with Beijing. Park even <\/span>attended<\/span><\/a> a massive 2015 military parade in Beijing, standing second only to Putin in proximity to Xi Jinping. Her successor, progressive Moon Jae-in, <\/span>traveled<\/span><\/a> twice<\/span><\/a> to Beijing, adding up to three Korean presidential visits since Xi Jinping <\/span>last set foot in Seoul<\/span><\/a> in 2014.<\/span><\/p>\n

It will send a clear message if Xi continues not to visit Seoul. It casts the current Yoon administration and the conservative movement as incapable of fostering a cooperative relationship \u2014 potentially becoming an issue in the next election as it has in <\/span>other democracies<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Progress on other fronts, such as cooperation on North Korea or easing restrictions on <\/span>Korean entertainment content<\/span><\/a>, would also halt. However, sectors like <\/span>semiconductors<\/span><\/a>, where Beijing is keen to join forces with Korean companies to counter Washington, would be the exception to this lack of progress.<\/span><\/p>\n

If it chooses to escalate the situation, the scale of Beijing\u2019s response could parallel its reaction to South Korea\u2019s THAAD installation in 2017. The deputy editor of the <\/span>Global Times <\/span><\/i>previously <\/span>warned Australia in 2017<\/span><\/a> by referring to South Korea\u2019s experience as \u201ca good example of how the Chinese public could make an impact on another country\u2019s economy and trade.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This phrase, \u201cthe Chinese public,\u201d implies the implementation of undeclared sanctions under the guise of popular boycotts, making them more challenging for Seoul to counteract, including at <\/span>the World Trade Organization<\/span><\/a> (WTO).<\/span><\/p>\n

Such measures would aim to inflict damage on the Korean economy while minimizing their impact on Beijing\u2019s strategic goals. Unlike the targeting of the <\/span>information and communications technology<\/span><\/a> (ICT) sector, industries like <\/span>beauty products<\/span><\/a> might come under fire.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beijing can also employ its <\/span>gray zone tactics<\/span><\/a>. Such strategies would mean an increased presence of Chinese fishing vessels doubling as maritime militias in South Korean waters, more frequent naval confrontations and heightened pressure on Korea\u2019s air defense identification zone (KADIZ).<\/span><\/p>\n

An even more ominous possibility is China\u2019s use of <\/span>hostage diplomacy<\/span><\/a>. There have been several instances of this recently; <\/span>Canadian citizens<\/span><\/a> were detained following the arrest of Huawei\u2019s chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou in Canada for extradition to the U.S. They were released only upon her release.<\/span><\/p>\n

Similar episodes involved <\/span>Japan<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Australia<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>others<\/span><\/a>. Disturbingly, there is a possibility that South Korean soccer player Son Jun-ho, <\/span>recently detained<\/span><\/a> in China on bribery allegations, may already have been caught up in such tactics.<\/span><\/p>\n

Perhaps the most alarming prospect is Beijing\u2019s potential decision to \u201cunleash\u201d North Korea. A recent <\/span>article<\/span><\/a> in <\/span>Xinhua<\/span><\/i>, China\u2019s official state news agency, urged South Korea to \u201cquickly rein in at the edge of the cliff\u201d and not forget that their \u201ccompatriots in the North haven\u2019t had any contact through the inter-Korean hotline for a long time.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

North Korean provocations have had deadly consequences in the past; the most disastrous recent incident led to the loss of 46 sailors to a North Korean <\/span>torpedo attack<\/span><\/a> in 2010. This threat highlights the grave risks associated with Beijing\u2019s response to Seoul\u2019s political direction.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Chinese President Xi Jinping and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol speaking during the bilateral summit on the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G20) Bali summit, Nov. 15. 2022 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a>, edited by Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

DIRECT AND CONTROL<\/b><\/p>\n

In whatever action Beijing takes, its intent will not be simply to punish but rather to direct South Korea\u2019s actions toward policies that favor China. Beijing divides the world into <\/span>friends and enemies, with waverers<\/span><\/a> in between. It initially categorized Yoon as one of the waverers, given that South Korea\u2019s prior conservative presidents, like Park Geun-hye, were keen to improve cooperation with China even while maintaining the country\u2019s security alliance with the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon himself initially <\/span>signaled<\/span><\/a> a desire for a cooperative relationship. However, Yoon\u2019s alignment with the U.S. and Japan, particularly over the issue of Taiwan, has now likely led Beijing to consider him more of an enemy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beijing <\/span>perceives<\/span><\/a> the situation as it always does in such cases: blaming <\/span>malign U.S. influences<\/span><\/a> operating through some bad local elements.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Chinese commentators have zeroed in on a small circle of <\/span>American-educated officials<\/span><\/a> as the troublemakers. They are key figures in Yoon\u2019s administration: deputy national security adviser <\/span>Kim Tae-hyo<\/span><\/a>, Korea\u2019s Ambassador to China <\/span>Chung Jae-ho<\/span><\/a>, foreign minister <\/span>Park Jin<\/span><\/a> and former national security adviser <\/span>Kim Sung-han<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Chinese commentators perceive these individuals as having been \u201cAmericanized,\u201d hence their alleged antagonism toward China and admiration for Japan. While it\u2019s impossible to know for sure, decision-makers in Beijing likely see it much the same way.<\/span><\/p>\n

Just as the explanation is the same, so is the solution: try to <\/span>isolate<\/span><\/a> these apparently hostile elements and unite their friends against them. This strategy will persist until Korea\u2019s conservatives understand that cooperation can only be achieved on Beijing\u2019s terms.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the meantime, Korean progressives are likely to convince voters of their <\/span>willingness and ability<\/span><\/a> to abide by Beijing\u2019s rules, thus fostering cooperation. Korea\u2019s influential corporate sector will also be induced to emphasize the importance of \u201ccooperation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The effectiveness of Beijing\u2019s strategy ultimately hinges on South Korea\u2019s national resolve. Although Yoon didn\u2019t begin his term as a China hawk, he will likely double down. Yoon\u2019s team views the <\/span>key problem<\/span><\/a> as Beijing\u2019s <\/span>lack of respect<\/span><\/a> for Seoul, and they believe that cultivating stronger ties with Washington and Tokyo can provide leverage.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, they might be underestimating what a Chinese scholar Gong Keyu at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, <\/span>referred to<\/span><\/a> as \u201cChina\u2019s sense of superiority and condescending attitude toward the Peninsula.\u201d Giving voice to this sentiment, Chinese celebrity commentator Hu Xijin <\/span>stated<\/span><\/a>, \u201cI believe that South Korea as a whole cannot be an enemy of China. It does not have the strength or courage.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The probability of Beijing backing down before the next South Korean election is virtually nonexistent.<\/span><\/p>\n

The crucial question is how the South Korean public will react to China\u2019s inevitable retaliatory measures. As <\/span>more than 80%<\/span><\/a> of South Koreans have expressed negative or very negative views of China, it is not implausible that they might rally behind Yoon, which would signal to the political left that it must be more circumspect toward Beijing if it wants to win elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

Over time, such an outcome could even prompt Beijing to reassess its tactics if it perceives South Korea is increasingly slipping away.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, considering Yoon\u2019s <\/span>low approval ratings<\/span><\/a>, it appears more plausible that Beijing will have its belief reaffirmed: it possesses the necessary tools to manage South Korea and occasional troublemakers like Yoon.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Beijing\u2019s increasingly antagonistic \u201cwolf warrior\u201d rhetoric toward the Yoon administration signals a critical shift in the dynamics of ROK-China relations. President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s remarks ahead of his trip to Washington in April, where he opposed any attempts to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by force, elicited a furious response from China. South […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10207,"featured_media":2201086,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,27,28],"class_list":["post-2201085","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-domestic-politics","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nChina\u2019s \u2018wolf warrior\u2019 rhetoric signals rough times ahead for South Korea - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/05\/chinas-wolf-warrior-rhetoric-signals-rough-times-ahead-for-south-korea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s \u2018wolf warrior\u2019 rhetoric signals rough times ahead for South Korea - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Beijing\u2019s increasingly antagonistic \u201cwolf warrior\u201d rhetoric toward the Yoon administration signals a critical shift in the dynamics of ROK-China relations. 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