{"id":2200966,"date":"2023-05-09T18:24:57","date_gmt":"2023-05-09T09:24:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200966"},"modified":"2023-05-10T16:45:41","modified_gmt":"2023-05-10T07:45:41","slug":"how-an-aging-population-and-fiscal-conservatism-are-shaping-rok-defense-spending","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/05\/how-an-aging-population-and-fiscal-conservatism-are-shaping-rok-defense-spending\/","title":{"rendered":"How an aging population and fiscal conservatism are shaping ROK defense spending"},"content":{"rendered":"

Upon assuming the presidency, Yoon Suk-yeol set out to reorient South Korea\u2019s defense priorities, <\/span>reinstating<\/span><\/a> North Korea in his first <\/span>defense white paper<\/span><\/a> as the nation\u2019s \u201cmain enemy\u201d \u2014 a designation abandoned by the previous Moon Jae-in administration.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But Yoon\u2019s inaugural defense budget, approved in Dec. 2022, shares many similarities with Moon\u2019s approach. Yoon\u2019s decision to terminate Moon\u2019s <\/span>light aircraft carrier<\/span><\/a> project is one notable divergence, yet South Korea\u2019s <\/span>reliance<\/span><\/a> on the <\/span>three-axis<\/span><\/a> defense system and various missiles persist.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As Yoon navigates his broader spending ambitions, he must grapple with an aging population, economic uncertainties and his commitment to fiscal conservatism.<\/span><\/p>\n

These factors will ultimately shape South Korea\u2019s defense priorities and the delicate balance between domestic and international security concerns under Yoon\u2019s leadership.<\/span><\/p>\n

DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURES START TO BITE<\/b><\/p>\n

In late Dec. 2022, Yoon\u2019s first budget passed the National Assembly, allocating $43.2 billion (57 trillion won) to defense, which comprises <\/span>approximately 13%<\/span><\/a> of the total budget and 2.5% of the ROK\u2019s GDP. This 2023 budget represents a 4.4% increase from the previous year. Yet it reveals a critical challenge for the ROK\u2019s defense: manpower.<\/span><\/p>\n

Within the defense budget, 70% is dedicated to force operating costs, while the remaining 30% goes to improving defense capabilities. However, of the 4.4% overall increase, force operating cost increases account for <\/span>91%<\/span><\/a>, leaving a mere 9% for defense capability improvements.<\/span><\/p>\n

Troop operating costs, a subset of force operating costs, make up 41% of the budget at $17.7 billion (23.3 trillion won), reflecting a 13% increase since 2021, the most significant expansion of any broad segment in the budget at that time.<\/span><\/p>\n

By contrast, defense capability expenditures experienced a slight decrease of 0.5% during the same period, falling from $12.9 billion (16.96 trillion won) to $12.8 billion (16.92 trillion won). This shift in spending priorities is intrinsically linked to South Korea\u2019s demographic struggles, with active-duty servicemembers numbering <\/span>500,000<\/span><\/a> in 2022, down from 618,000 in 2018. <\/span>Continued decreases<\/span><\/a> are projected due to dwindling birth rates and a shrinking pool of available conscripts.<\/span><\/p>\n

In an effort to slow this downward trend, the government aims to make military service a more viable career path by implementing <\/span>wage increases<\/span><\/a> throughout the armed forces. This strategy intends to entice conscripts to pursue non-commissioned officer (NCO) roles and encourage current NCOs to stay in the military. However, this strategy has so far been <\/span>hampered by populist measures<\/span><\/a> that have emphasized higher pay hikes for conscripts than NCOs, leaving the intended outcome out of reach.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moving forward, pressures on the defense budget will intensify. The 2023-2027 midterm defense plan <\/span>estimates<\/span><\/a> an annual defense budget increase of roughly 6.8%. This goal is unlikely to be achieved, but even if Seoul could reach it, it would still fall short of the approximately 7% <\/span>average<\/span><\/a> under former President Moon Jae-in.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon, a <\/span>fiscal conservative<\/span><\/a> leading a country with a strong reputation for <\/span>responsible<\/span><\/a> spending, faces a <\/span>murky<\/span><\/a> economic outlook. Economic growth in 2023 is <\/span>expected<\/span><\/a> to be around 1.5%, with 2024 expectations already being revised downward. Moreover, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance <\/span>estimates<\/span><\/a> a more realistic average annual defense spending increase of 4% until 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

These factors create tension between the <\/span>goals<\/span><\/a> of raising spending on defense capabilities by 10.5% per year and force management by 5.1% annually through 2027. Given domestic political pressures, wage hikes are likely to persist, making cuts to defense capabilities a more politically feasible option. This, coupled with Yoon\u2019s fiscal conservatism and uncertain economic growth, ensures that he will be forced to make difficult decisions on defense spending throughout his presidency.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean multiple launch rocket system (K-MLRS) K239 Chunmoo, June 13, 2019, | Image: ROK Army Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

FROM WEAPONS SYSTEMS TO CORE TECHNOLOGIES<\/b><\/p>\n

Continuing<\/span><\/a> past practices, Yoon\u2019s defense budget maintains its focus on the three-axis system to counter North Korea\u2019s growing threat. However, a more significant transition is unfolding within the budget: Seoul is deemphasizing the share of the budget allocated to developing weapons systems in favor of focusing on pursuing core technologies.<\/span><\/p>\n

As highlighted in a <\/span>KIDA analysis<\/span><\/a>, the allocation for developing weapons systems in 2019 represented 52% of the total research and development budget. This figure has since dropped to 31%, while the funding for defense technology development has surged from 29% to 54% during the same period.<\/span><\/p>\n

This shift in priorities implies that South Korea finds itself in something of a sweet spot. The nation\u2019s existing weapons systems, such as the <\/span>K9 Thunder howitzer<\/span><\/a> and the <\/span>K2 Black Panther tank<\/span><\/a>, provide a robust defense and garner <\/span>significant demand<\/span><\/a> from Europe to Southeast Asia amid a <\/span>global uptick<\/span><\/a> in arms spending.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korean arms manufacturers reaped <\/span>record-breaking profits<\/span><\/a> in 2022, a trend <\/span>projected<\/span><\/a> to persist into 2023. With earlier investments in weapons systems now paying off, the defense budget can pivot toward developing core technologies and <\/span>diversifying<\/span><\/a> domestic production \u2014 factors integral to South Korea\u2019s future defense and burgeoning arms exports.<\/span><\/p>\n

Those core technologies are laid out broadly in the <\/span>Basic Plan on Defense Innovation 4.0<\/span><\/a> and in more detail in Defense Acquisition Program Administration\u2019s (DAPA) <\/span>2022-2036 Core Technology Plan<\/span><\/a>. But the <\/span>140 core technologies<\/span><\/a> are all commonly based around integrating these advanced technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI) and manned-unmanned complex combat systems. These technologies not only address the threats posed by North Korea but also seek to offset the manpower challenges of the future.<\/span><\/p>\n

A key strategy in pursuing these core technologies and achieving Yoon\u2019s <\/span>goal<\/span><\/a> of capturing 5% of the global defense exports market by 2027 will be the dual approach of decentralizing core technology development and geographically centralizing the companies involved.<\/span><\/p>\n

The South Korean government plans to <\/span>invest<\/span><\/a> $1.1 billion (1.5 trillion won) by 2027 to foster collaboration between private industry and the military to decentralize technology development. This process focuses on expanding the number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in the defense sector and broadening the domestic pool of companies working on core technologies applicable to the military.<\/span><\/p>\n

DAPA <\/span>selected<\/span><\/a> 100 companies in targeted areas to spur growth among defense industry SMEs, and Korean banks stand <\/span>ready<\/span><\/a> to provide $75.8 million (100 billion won) in financing to these small businesses.<\/span><\/p>\n

Simultaneously, South Korea is working to establish an innovation and technology cluster for the defense industry to generate positive spillover effects. In 2022, DAPA selected Daejeon as the site for a defense development cluster, which is anticipated to host approximately 100 SMEs engaged in the defense industry.<\/span><\/p>\n

WHAT\u2019S NEXT<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s defense budgeting faces multifaceted challenges in the years ahead.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Striking a delicate balance will be necessary to address short-term demands \u2014 such as increasing wages to tackle the manpower problem \u2014 while also confronting the ever-evolving threats posed by North Korea and investing in the core technologies that will serve as the foundation of South Korea\u2019s future defense and defense export industry.<\/span><\/p>\n

President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s first budget appears to strike that balance, yet the path forward may become increasingly difficult in 2024, given prevailing economic realities and his own fiscal conservatism.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Upon assuming the presidency, Yoon Suk-yeol set out to reorient South Korea\u2019s defense priorities, reinstating North Korea in his first defense white paper as the nation\u2019s \u201cmain enemy\u201d \u2014 a designation abandoned by the previous Moon Jae-in administration.\u00a0 But Yoon\u2019s inaugural defense budget, approved in Dec. 2022, shares many similarities with Moon\u2019s approach. Yoon\u2019s decision […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2200967,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,27],"class_list":["post-2200966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-domestic-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nHow an aging population and fiscal conservatism are shaping ROK defense spending - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/05\/how-an-aging-population-and-fiscal-conservatism-are-shaping-rok-defense-spending\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How an aging population and fiscal conservatism are shaping ROK defense spending - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Upon assuming the presidency, Yoon Suk-yeol set out to reorient South Korea\u2019s defense priorities, reinstating North Korea in his first defense white paper as the nation\u2019s \u201cmain enemy\u201d \u2014 a designation abandoned by the previous Moon Jae-in administration.\u00a0 But Yoon\u2019s inaugural defense budget, approved in Dec. 2022, shares many similarities with Moon\u2019s approach. 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