{"id":2200935,"date":"2023-05-05T17:20:50","date_gmt":"2023-05-05T08:20:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200935"},"modified":"2023-05-08T20:03:56","modified_gmt":"2023-05-08T11:03:56","slug":"springtime-for-south-korea-japan-blossoming-relations-uncertain-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/05\/springtime-for-south-korea-japan-blossoming-relations-uncertain-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Springtime for South Korea-Japan: blossoming relations, uncertain future"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the wisteria blossoms in late spring, the temperature is also warming with regard to ROK-Japan ties.\u00a0This weekend\u2019s <\/span>visit<\/span><\/a> of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to South Korea, the first by a Japanese prime minister in over five years, marks a significant step in this warming.\u00a0But it remains uncertain whether this progress will extend into a golden summer or if old disputes will dampen the enthusiasm on both sides, leading to a tense atmosphere once more.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the surface, the signs are good.\u00a0In early March, President Yoon Suk-yeol <\/span>announced<\/span><\/a> a breakthrough plan to compensate Korean victims of forced labor during the Japanese colonial period. Kishida expressed support for the initiative, and the U.S. described it as \u201chistoric.\u201d Subsequently, Yoon made a carefully choreographed <\/span>visit<\/span><\/a> to Tokyo \u2014 the first visit by a South Korean president to Japan in around a decade for a bilateral summit \u2014 which Kishida is about to reciprocate.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200b\u200bThough not explicitly stated, both parties acknowledge that the forced labor issue is linked to wider issues, such as trade, security and economic matters. In late April, <\/span>both<\/span><\/a> sides<\/span><\/a> agreed to reinstate the other in their respective \u201cwhite lists\u201d \u2014 a list of trusted trading partners \u2014 three years after the Moon administration removed Japan from the list in retaliation against Japan\u2019s earlier move to <\/span>remove<\/span><\/a> the ROK from its own list.<\/span><\/p>\n

Following negotiations between the trade ministries of both countries, Korea agreed to suspend a World Trade Organization (WTO) complaint against Japan. Further, Yoon decided to normalize the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), an intelligence-sharing pact between the two nations. Continuing this positive momentum, the finance ministers from both countries held their <\/span>first bilateral meeting<\/span><\/a> in seven years earlier this week.<\/span><\/p>\n

IT TAKES TWO TO TANGO<\/b><\/p>\n

Yoon has undoubtedly worked hard to achieve this outcome. Since assuming office just a year ago, he has committed his government to improve relations with Japan, persistently offering a series of olive branches and instructing officials to engage with their Japanese counterparts. In Sept. 2022, Seoul confidentially proposed a comprehensive deal on the forced labor issue, ultimately leading to the announcement in March.<\/span><\/p>\n

Japan has been much slower to respond. Tokyo remains skeptical due to the previous Moon Jae-in administration\u2019s <\/span>withdrawal<\/span><\/a> from a 2015 agreement on the crucial comfort women issue.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tokyo took its time to evaluate Seoul\u2019s approach, seeking to assess Yoon\u2019s commitment and domestic support, considering the fallout from the 2015 deal, and being mindful of maintaining cohesion among the factions of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) following the <\/span>death<\/span><\/a> of former prime minister Shinzo Abe last year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Strikingly, the March deal was announced solely by Yoon, with Kishida issuing a statement in response. Further, Tokyo has <\/span>declined<\/span><\/a> to offer any additional apologies for historical issues, saying only that Japan stands by past official statements of remorse over its wartime aggression in Asia. South Korea\u2019s opposition parties and civil societies were quick to complain about Japan\u2019s alleged lack of reciprocity.<\/span><\/p>\n

Under a less committed president, Seoul might have balked from further pursuing detente with Tokyo, as civil society \u2014 particularly those who represent former victims of Japanese imperialism \u2014 wields <\/span>significant political influence<\/span><\/a> and can serve as a major constraint on the South Korean government\u2019s room to maneuver with Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

President Yoon Suk-yeol meets with Japanse Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, March 16, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

OVERLY CAUTIOUS<\/b><\/p>\n

Despite the initial hesitance, it is evident that Tokyo has embarked on a more positive path toward relations with Korea. The March deal serves as a prime example. Although Kishida maintained his distance from Yoon\u2019s announcement \u2014 making it appear more like a unilateral declaration than a bilateral agreement \u2014 Japan discreetly made a significant concession by allowing Japanese companies to <\/span>contribute funds<\/span><\/a> to address historical issues, albeit indirectly, through a future youth fund.<\/span><\/p>\n

Some commentators have found Japan\u2019s caution puzzling, given the obvious strategic benefits of rebuilding ties at a time when China\u2019s increasingly assertive behavior is alarming many neighboring countries. Yoon\u2019s <\/span>global pivotal state<\/span><\/a> approach, which emphasizes freedom and liberal values, provides an unusually apposite hook for the two countries to collaborate.<\/span><\/p>\n

The U.S. has been actively encouraging both countries to improve relations, primarily through the framework of trilateral security cooperation. During the Biden-Yoon summit in Washington last week, U.S. officials reportedly expressed frustration at Japan\u2019s relatively tepid response to Yoon\u2019s plan.<\/span><\/p>\n

The upcoming G-7 Summit, which Japan will host in Hiroshima later this month, has also prompted Tokyo to focus on the need to demonstrate progress in its relationship with Seoul. Yoon\u2019s success in securing an invitation (as one of eight guest nations)<\/span> further demonstrates the willingness of both sides to advance their partnership.<\/span><\/p>\n

This week\u2019s initial focus of discussions in Seoul will likely be on coordinating and strengthening responses to North Korea\u2019s nuclear and missile development. But this is the easy part. More challenging issues await.<\/span><\/p>\n

STORM CLOUDS AHEAD?<\/b><\/p>\n

The real opportunities lie in the complex broader international issues both countries face, particularly managing relations with China (including Taiwan), Russia and the U.S. The extent to which these issues are addressed publicly during Kishida\u2019s visit \u2014 such as joint statements, media interviews or background briefings by officials \u2014 will indicate how far the two leaders are prepared to take the bilateral relationship at this point.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, as always, deeper currents are at play that require careful navigation by both sides. The disputed <\/span>Dokdo islets<\/span><\/a>, which Tokyo refers to as Takeshima, remain a constant source of bitter disagreements and an easy go-to issue for politicians eager to whip up nationalist sentiments. Just this week, Japan\u2019s foreign ministry protested yet again a trip by <\/span>South Korean opposition lawmakers<\/span><\/a> to the islets.<\/span><\/p>\n

More importantly, despite Yoon\u2019s commitment and his government\u2019s efforts, it remains unclear whether the deal over forced labor can be sustained. Yoon needs the support or at least the acquiescence of a significant portion of the Korean public; otherwise, the deal could be undone by his successor, as Moon did with his predecessor\u2019s comfort women deal. He also needs a nod from the South Korean judicial system, indicating that the solution he proposed can halt further disruptive court action. Neither outcome is guaranteed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s actions over the past year have been carefully calibrated to align with the position that all bilateral issues were addressed in the 1965 treaty that established diplomatic ties between the two countries. While Japan has said it is open to reiterating apologies made by previous prime ministers, the LDP remains highly resistant to going beyond the expressions of remorse for its wartime actions, including those made by then-Prime Minister <\/span>Shinzo Abe<\/span><\/a> in 2015.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, while signs of spring are clear, the forecast for summer remains cloudy. Will bilateral cooperation persist beyond the immediate spur of the G-7 summit? Will South Korean voters accept Yoon\u2019s proposed path forward? Can Kishida maintain support for the deal across the fractious LDP?<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul\u2019s diplomatic relationship with Tokyo is critical for the two countries, but it also affects the complex politics of the entire East Asian region and the global economy. The world will <\/span>be monitoring the weather in Seoul this weekend with more than usual interest.<\/span><\/p>\n

Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the wisteria blossoms in late spring, the temperature is also warming with regard to ROK-Japan ties.\u00a0This weekend\u2019s visit of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to South Korea, the first by a Japanese prime minister in over five years, marks a significant step in this warming.\u00a0But it remains uncertain whether this progress will extend into a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2200936,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[28],"yoast_head":"\nSpringtime for South Korea-Japan: blossoming relations, uncertain future - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/05\/springtime-for-south-korea-japan-blossoming-relations-uncertain-future\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Springtime for South Korea-Japan: blossoming relations, uncertain future - 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