{"id":2200890,"date":"2023-05-04T18:18:01","date_gmt":"2023-05-04T09:18:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200890"},"modified":"2023-05-05T17:26:26","modified_gmt":"2023-05-05T08:26:26","slug":"the-risks-of-us-and-south-koreas-divergent-messaging-about-a-nuclear-alliance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/05\/the-risks-of-us-and-south-koreas-divergent-messaging-about-a-nuclear-alliance\/","title":{"rendered":"The risks of US and South Korea\u2019s divergent messaging about a \u2018nuclear\u2019 alliance"},"content":{"rendered":"

The U.S. and South Korea pulled out all the stops for Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s state visit to Washington last week, celebrating 70 years of the alliance with pageantry, economic agreements and security pledges. The two sides\u2019 Washington Declaration notably laid out plans to establish a Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) for joint planning on the use of U.S. nuclear assets.<\/span><\/p>\n

But while the allies strove to project unity against North Korean threats, observers<\/a> have argued that the Yoon administration has overstated<\/a> parts of the summit result over the past week, particularly as it relates to the agreements on U.S. nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n

And experts told Korea Pro <\/em>that\u00a0the apparent differences in how the U.S. and South Korea are framing the summit result could cause problems for the alliance if not addressed, though some suggest that Seoul\u2019s efforts to sell the deal could at least partly align with Washington\u2019s interests.<\/span><\/p>\n

The discrepancies became apparent soon after the two sides released the Washington Declaration, as seen in remarks by <\/span>Kim Tae-hyo<\/span><\/a>, deputy director of the ROK National Security Office.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAs the ROK and U.S. have arranged a mechanism for intelligence sharing and joint planning regarding U.S. nuclear weapons operations, I think going forward, South Korean citizens will feel like they are de facto nuclear sharing with the U.S.,\u201d he <\/span>told<\/span><\/a> reporters.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kim\u2019s remark drew quick derision from the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), which accused the NSO official of making an \u201c<\/span>empty<\/span><\/a>\u201d and \u201c<\/span>grotesque<\/span><\/a>\u201d argument to bluff about a \u201c<\/span>futile<\/span><\/a>\u201d summit result. And a day later, a senior U.S. official appeared to push back against Kim\u2019s remarks.<\/span><\/p>\n

“So let me just be very direct. I don’t think that we see this as a de facto nuclear sharing,” <\/span>said<\/span><\/a> Edgard Kagan, senior director for East Asia and Oceania of the U.S. National Security Council (NSC). “I think that, from our standpoint, [when] we say nuclear sharing, that has very significant implications.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

President Yoon has <\/span>also<\/span><\/a> appeared to <\/span>fixate<\/span><\/a> on the \u201cnuclear\u201d part of allied deterrence, going beyond the language of the declaration by <\/span>stating<\/span><\/a> that their response to a North Korean attack could \u201cinclude U.S. nuclear weapons.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

“Through the Washington Declaration \u2026 the security alliance between the ROK and the U.S. has been upgraded into a nuclear-based paradigm,\u201d Yoon <\/span>said<\/span><\/a> in a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean vice defense minister Shin Beom-chul (left) inspects a nuclear-capable B-52 bomber at U.S. Joint Base Andrews, Sept. 15, 2022 | Image: ROK Ministry of National Defense<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

SEOUL\u2019S MOTIVATIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

Experts told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that the South Korean government\u2019s messaging is driven less by the technical details of its agreements with Washington and more by the need to reassure domestic audiences of the U.S. commitment to the ROK\u2019s defense \u2014 at a time when more in Seoul are voicing support for an indigenous nuclear program.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThere’s no way to reconcile the content of the Washington Declaration with what pro-nuclear proponents are seeking,\u201d said Ankit Panda, a Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. \u201cSo the presidential office is motivated to manage expectations by somewhat overstating what was agreed.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Toby Dalton, a senior fellow and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment, agreed that this appears to be Seoul\u2019s motivation while questioning the wisdom of Seoul\u2019s approach.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI find the whole thing puzzling,\u201d he said. \u201cThey seem to want to appease a thin slice of Korean elites who care about this issue.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

But Dalton said Kim Tae-hyo\u2019s comment about South Koreans being able to \u201cfeel like\u201d nuclear sharing is not technically false.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt is clearly an effort to spin the result, but he\u2019s not 100% wrong in an important sense: There is no uniform understanding of nuclear sharing in the South Korean discussion of this issue \u2014 even \u2018NATO-style\u2019 is ambiguous.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Kim was likely suggesting that \u201cit will be easier for the ROK to communicate interests and objectives into U.S. nuclear decision-making,\u201d according to Dalton. He said this is particularly important in the aftermath of Donald Trump\u2019s \u201cfire and fury\u201d comments, which raised the possibility of U.S. nuclear use even when the ROK government doesn\u2019t desire it.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mark Fitzpatrick, an associate fellow at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that Kim\u2019s reassurances to domestic audiences could even be in Washington\u2019s interests.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhile it could be problematic for the two allies to come away from the summit with different interpretations of the Washington Declaration, I think the key verb in Kim Tae-hyo’s statement is that citizens will \u2018feel\u2019 as if they have de facto nuclear sharing,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThey don’t, of course, but since the main purpose of the declaration was reassurance, then Kim’s comment can be helpful in dampening desires for indigenous nuclearization.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

COORDINATION PROBLEMS?<\/b><\/p>\n

Regardless of the rationale for how Seoul has spun the summit result, however, some experts raised the need for the U.S. and South Korea to coordinate better on their messaging, lest it lead to other problems down the road.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that the allies should work to ensure they are on the same page not only publicly but also behind closed doors.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cDeliberate or inadvertent differences of interpretation can lay the seeds for trouble down the road when there is belated realization of a gap in perception,\u201d he said. \u201cTo avoid this, the U.S. and South Korea should have extensive ongoing dialogue to ensure both sides have the same interpretation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

A bigger concern is that the ROK\u2019s messaging is the result of a fundamental difference in understanding between Seoul and Washington, according to Klinger.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

He noted that terminology like \u201cnuclear planning\u201d can have specific meanings to one side, while also highlighting the potential for confusion about the U.S. promise to provide extended deterrence using the \u201cfull range\u201d of its capabilities, including nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSouth Korea may interpret that as a guarantee of a U.S. nuclear response regardless of the parameters of the North Korean nuclear use,\u201d he said. \u201cBut the U.S. policy is a response that is up to and including nuclear weapons but not necessarily automatic if the mission can be accomplished with conventional weapons.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Panda of the Carnegie Endowment added that discrepancies in Seoul and Washington\u2019s messaging also \u201crisks further inflaming the pro-nuclear discourse in South Korea given the U.S. impulse to push back and clarify the terms of what was actually agreed upon.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

But some experts see little cause for concern about the allies\u2019 coordination. Christopher Green, a lecturer at Leiden University and senior consultant of the International Crisis Group (ICG), said the U.S. likely understands why Seoul is focusing on nuclear aspects and could \u201cprivately caution against excess.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

And John Everard, the former British ambassador to North Korea, suggested any concern over differences in messaging will soon blow over.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIn a couple of weeks, both sides will have forgotten these exchanges. But the commitment to transparency and communication and the NCG will endure,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Yoon and Biden at joint press conference | Image: ROK Presidential Office (April 26, 2023)<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

NEVER SATISFIED?<\/b><\/p>\n

So far, Yoon\u2019s efforts to sell the summit result as a win for nuclear deterrence have been less than successful, and experts assessed that there\u2019s likely little Seoul can do to curtail the public\u2019s appetite for nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n

Chosun Ilbo, <\/span><\/i>the country\u2019s largest conservative newspaper, published an <\/span>editorial<\/span><\/a> expressing disappointment that the U.S. appears more focused on stopping South Korea from arming itself with nuclear weapons than deterring North Korea\u2019s nuclear program.<\/span><\/p>\n

The conservative daily argued that Yoon surrendered South Korea\u2019s sovereign right to defend its citizens in exchange for the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), which does not fundamentally change the U.S. deterrence posture for the peninsula.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThere’s a zealotry to parts of the pro-nuclear armament discourse in South Korea that no form of extended deterrence reassurance that is realistically possible in the current environment can solve,\u201d said Panda of Carnegie Endowment, recommending that both Seoul and Washington avoid overemphasizing nuclear over conventional capabilities for extended deterrence.<\/span><\/p>\n

Other experts were also skeptical that either Biden or Yoon would be able to tone down calls for a South Korean nuclear program or nuclear sharing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Everard, the retired diplomat, said that pro-nuclear nationalists won\u2019t be satisfied.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cBut I suspect that the U.S.-ROK deal will satisfy many people in the center ground whose support would have been necessary for the idea of an autonomous nuclear deterrent to gain momentum,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to Klingner, Seoul received what it wanted at the summit \u2014 \u201ca greater role in U.S. nuclear policy, strategy, exercises and planning\u201d \u2014 and now must make that clear to the public.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe Yoon administration should engage in a strategic messaging program to explain how greater integration with U.S. extended deterrence is in South Korea\u2019s interest more than greater independence from the alliance,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee and Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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