{"id":2200844,"date":"2023-04-27T19:24:03","date_gmt":"2023-04-27T10:24:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200844"},"modified":"2023-04-28T16:43:49","modified_gmt":"2023-04-28T07:43:49","slug":"yoon-lauds-nuclear-progress-at-us-rok-summit-but-critics-remain-unconvinced","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/04\/yoon-lauds-nuclear-progress-at-us-rok-summit-but-critics-remain-unconvinced\/","title":{"rendered":"Yoon lauds nuclear progress at US-ROK summit, but critics remain unconvinced"},"content":{"rendered":"

Traveling to the U.S. this week for his second summit with U.S. counterpart Joe Biden, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol aimed in part to boost his popularity with a public that increasingly wants Seoul to have more say in U.S. nuclear weapons use \u2014 or even its own bomb.<\/span><\/p>\n

But following the release of the summit outcome on Wednesday, experts are divided about the efficacy of the new nuclear consultation framework that the two leaders agreed to and whether it will satisfy South Koreans who have called for an indigenous nuclear weapons program.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon portrayed the <\/span>Washington Declaration<\/span><\/a> as a win during a joint press conference after the summit, <\/span>framing<\/span><\/a> the agreement to establish a new Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) for joint planning and execution of U.S. nuclear assets against North Korean threats as an \u201cunprecedented\u201d step toward giving Seoul more say on the U.S. nuclear umbrella.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cOur two countries have agreed to immediate bilateral presidential consultations in the event of North Korea\u2019s nuclear attack and promised to respond swiftly, overwhelmingly and decisively using the full force of the alliance including the United States\u2019 nuclear weapons,\u201d Yoon said.<\/span><\/p>\n

He stressed repeatedly that nuclear asset planning and execution would be done \u201cjointly\u201d between Seoul and Washington, while Biden emphasized that the decision to use nuclear weapons is his \u201csole authority.\u201d South Korea also pledged to uphold the principles of non-proliferation \u2014 in essence promising not to pursue an independent nuclear weapons program.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite Yoon\u2019s insistence that the two countries\u2019 response to a North Korean nuclear attack would include overwhelming U.S. nuclear capabilities, the actual wording of the <\/span>Washington Declaration<\/span><\/a> is more ambiguous.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe United States commits to make every effort to consult with the ROK on any possible nuclear weapons employment on the Korean Peninsula,\u201d the declaration states, referring to the <\/span>Declaratory Policy in the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review<\/span><\/a> that lays out the conditions for America\u2019s nuclear use.<\/span><\/p>\n

In other words, while Washington acknowledges the importance of broadening consultation channels with Seoul, the U.S. cannot and will not be compelled to use nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

U.S. B-52H strategic bomber in a joint aerial drill in South Korean airspace, March 2023 | Image: ROK Ministry of National Defense Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

SOUTH KOREAN CONCESSIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

The inclusion of the ROK\u2019s recommitment to its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the U.S.-ROK Agreement for Cooperation Concerning Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy in the text of the declaration hints that this declaration was a response to growing calls for <\/span>South Korean nuclear armament<\/span><\/a> as much as a response to increasing North Korean nuclear threats.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prominent voices in South Korean politics, including <\/span>conservative lawmakers<\/span><\/a> and even the <\/span>Seoul mayor<\/span><\/a>, have advocated for nuclear armament since last year. Reasons include North Korea\u2019s <\/span>expanding arsenal<\/span><\/a>, increasing perceptions of China as a <\/span>threat<\/span><\/a> and doubts about the long-term U.S. commitment to defend South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Some in South Korea have called for an independent nuclear weapons program for decades, and Seoul even <\/span>actively pursued<\/span><\/a> its own nuclear deterrent in the 1970s, only for the U.S. to step in to stop it.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the idea that the ROK needs weapons of mass destruction has gained new <\/span>mainstream appeal<\/span><\/a> recently, likely taking Washington by surprise. While the U.S.-ROK alliance enjoys <\/span>strong support<\/span><\/a> among the South Korean public, doubts about the U.S. commitment point to an underlying trust issue that could have severe repercussions for U.S. foreign policy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although the Washington Declaration aims to alleviate South Koreans\u2019 concerns, that is precisely the problem with its approach, according to Jeffrey Robertson of Yonsei University.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe Washington Declaration is [a] reactionary policy. It addresses an issue that the U.S. did not anticipate,\u201d Robertson, an associate professor of diplomatic studies, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>. \u201cThe Washington Declaration addresses concerns regarding North Korea when the rationale for many South Koreans in securing nuclear weapons is greater independence. The Washington Declaration will not last.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

There will also likely be domestic pushback against what some might see as excessive concessions by the ROK, in particular Seoul\u2019s agreement to \u201cclosely connect the capabilities and planning activities of the new ROK Strategic Command and the U.S.-ROK Combined Forces Command (CFC).\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The ROK Strategic Command, first proposed in July 2022, is intended to serve as an overarching organization to implement South Korea\u2019s three-axis defense system based around preemptive strikes, air and missile defense and massive retaliation in the case of a North Korean attack.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toby Dalton, a senior fellow and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told <\/span>Korea Pro <\/span><\/i>that connecting the ROK Strategic Command and the U.S.-ROK Combined Forces Command is \u201ca critical relationship to get right.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe ROK three-axis capabilities are the leading edge of deterrence and response, so there needs to be [a] clearer understanding between ROK and CFC planners on how these are utilized in the context of an escalating crisis,\u201d Dalton said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Considering past <\/span>failures<\/span><\/a> of South Korean missile tests, compelling arguments can be made for combining the ROK Strategic Command with CFC. But the decision will likely have political ramifications, as it could lead to further perceptions of loss of independence.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cTable-top exercises will increase understanding and the capacity to work together. However, from a political perspective, this again raises issues of independence and sovereignty and will weaken a pro-U.S. president,\u201d Robertson said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Ohio-class ballistic-missile submarine USS Alabama (SSBN 731) returns home to Naval Base Kitsap-Bangor, April 28, 2017 | Image: US Strategic Command<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

DOMESTIC REACTION<\/b><\/p>\n

Biden emphasized that the U.S. will not station nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula. Instead, the Washington Declaration states that the U.S. will \u201cfurther enhance the regular visibility of strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula,\u201d including visits to the peninsula by U.S. nuclear ballistic missile submarines.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon administration officials have already begun the task of persuading South Korean voters of the president\u2019s success in strengthening the allies\u2019 extended deterrence.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kim Tae-hyo, a deputy director of the National Security Office, told reporters during a press briefing, \u201cGoing forward, our citizens will de facto feel as if we are sharing nuclear weapons with the U.S.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

But that is unlikely to be sufficient for South Koreans increasingly concerned about their country\u2019s security environment.<\/span><\/p>\n

A visit by a U.S. nuclear-armed submarine would be the first in more than <\/span>40 years<\/span><\/a>, but it will likely look little different to many South Koreans than when the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz <\/span>docked<\/span><\/a> in Busan in March, or when nuclear-capable B-52 bombers <\/span>flew<\/span><\/a> to the Korean Peninsula earlier this month.<\/span><\/p>\n

Karl Friedhoff, a Marshall M. Bouton fellow for Asia Studies at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that the Washington Declaration is unlikely to dampen South Korean public support for a nuclear weapons program.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe administration can tout it as a step in the right direction, and the public won\u2019t really understand the details anyway,\u201d Friedhoff told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>. \u201cThe public doesn\u2019t care that much about U.S. stationing of nuclear weapons in South Korea \u2014 it won\u2019t really resonate with the public.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He anticipated that public support for a nuclear program will \u201ccontinue to hover around 70%.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The main opposition Democratic Party (DP) also released a <\/span>statement<\/span><\/a> reflecting the public\u2019s blase attitude toward the summit.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cPresident Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s U.S.-ROK summit meeting failed to meet our common-sense expectations, even when we try to give him the benefit of the doubt,\u201d DP spokesperson Kang Sun-woo said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the U.S. achieved its goals and demands entirely, South Korea\u2019s core interests and requests have been met with vague promises,\u201d Kang added.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt is unclear what the Washington Declaration accomplished that the 2021 U.S.-ROK summit had not, as many aspects remain similar to the situation two years ago,\u201d he said, referring to then-President Moon Jae-in\u2019s <\/span>joint statement<\/span><\/a> with Biden.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough \u2018Nuclear Consultation Group\u2019 sounds grandiose, it merely regularizes an existing consultative body,\u201d Kang stated.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt is commendable that the Yoon administration has sought to \u2026 alleviate the public\u2019s anxiety regarding North Korea\u2019s nuclear threat,\u201d the statement reads. \u201cBut Yoon acts as if nuclear weapons will resolve all of our problems. This is highly concerning.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In the coming weeks and months, the Yoon administration will do its best to convince ROK voters that this is not the case and that the president was right to ditch his predecessor\u2019s diplomacy-focused approach to North Korea in favor of bolstering deterrence with the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the limitations of the summit result and a skeptical public suggest that Yoon will have his work cut out for him.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Traveling to the U.S. this week for his second summit with U.S. counterpart Joe Biden, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol aimed in part to boost his popularity with a public that increasingly wants Seoul to have more say in U.S. nuclear weapons use \u2014 or even its own bomb. But following the release of the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2200845,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,27,28],"class_list":["post-2200844","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-domestic-politics","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nYoon lauds nuclear progress at US-ROK summit, but critics remain unconvinced - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/04\/yoon-lauds-nuclear-progress-at-us-rok-summit-but-critics-remain-unconvinced\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Yoon lauds nuclear progress at US-ROK summit, but critics remain unconvinced - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Traveling to the U.S. this week for his second summit with U.S. counterpart Joe Biden, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol aimed in part to boost his popularity with a public that increasingly wants Seoul to have more say in U.S. nuclear weapons use \u2014 or even its own bomb. 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