{"id":2200820,"date":"2023-04-26T13:45:56","date_gmt":"2023-04-26T04:45:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200820"},"modified":"2023-04-26T19:17:38","modified_gmt":"2023-04-26T10:17:38","slug":"geopolitical-risks-lurk-as-south-korea-ramps-up-arms-exports","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/04\/geopolitical-risks-lurk-as-south-korea-ramps-up-arms-exports\/","title":{"rendered":"Geopolitical risks lurk as South Korea ramps up arms exports"},"content":{"rendered":"
The Yoon administration is <\/span>prioritizing<\/span><\/a> South Korea\u2019s world-class defense production capabilities as a cornerstone of the nation\u2019s economy, with the goal of positioning Seoul as the <\/span>fourth-largest<\/span><\/a> global arms exporter. While this endeavor has successfully attracted <\/span>European<\/span><\/a> customers, it has also drawn attention to some restrictions on Seoul\u2019s arms sales.<\/span><\/p>\n On one hand, Seoul\u2019s Western partners are urging the Yoon administration to play a more active role in arming Ukraine against Russia\u2019s invasion. Conversely, Russia has <\/span>threatened<\/span><\/a> South Korea should it decide to get involved. This situation presents Seoul with a crucial decision, though it may not be as complex as it initially appears.<\/span><\/p>\n South Korea, confronted with a more acute external security threat than most in the Indo-Pacific, finds itself in a precarious, half-century-long state of war with North Korea under an occasionally shaky armistice. As a treaty ally of the U.S., Seoul is understandably cautious in pursuing policies that could exacerbate tensions with both Beijing and Moscow simultaneously.<\/span><\/p>\n As public opinion of China reaches an <\/span>all-time low<\/span><\/a>, Seoul remains hopeful for a net positive relationship with Russia, with which it has enjoyed generally cordial relations since the fall of the Soviet Union. Although Russia ranked as only the <\/span>tenth-largest trading partner<\/span><\/a> for South Korea before the invasion, it constitutes a <\/span>significant market<\/span><\/a> that Seoul would be loath to lose access to entirely.<\/span><\/p>\n Further, South Korea is keen to secure <\/span>Russian support<\/span><\/a> for long-term inter-Korean matters, such as denuclearization and, potentially, unification.<\/span><\/p>\n DIFFICULT POSITION<\/b><\/p>\n Seoul has <\/span>agreed<\/span><\/a> to implement EU and U.S. financial sanctions and export control measures against Moscow, yet it has refrained from adopting sanctions on Russian energy exports while simultaneously working to <\/span>reduce<\/span><\/a> its dependence on Russian energy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n This strategy has enabled Korea to avoid Moscow\u2019s crosshairs and appease its Western partners to a certain extent.<\/span><\/p>\n Nonetheless, South Korea\u2019s defense market has the potential to provoke tensions with both factions. During NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg\u2019s visit to Asia in Jan. 2023, he publicly <\/span>encouraged<\/span><\/a> President Yoon Suk-yeol to take a more proactive role in supporting the Ukrainian war effort, despite South Korea\u2019s <\/span>policy<\/span><\/a> prohibiting the provision of lethal aid to states engaged in conflict.<\/span><\/p>\n A 2022 order from Washington for 100,000 rounds of artillery ammunition, presumed to be intended for transfer to Ukraine, had already sparked concerns \u2014 even though the ROK maintained that the U.S. was the <\/span>designated end user<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Yoon has remained steadfast in his refusal to send weapons directly into the conflict. The recent agreement to \u201c<\/span>lend<\/span><\/a>\u201d 500,000 artillery rounds to Washington underscores Seoul\u2019s apprehension that these rounds may ultimately be destined for Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n It is essential to acknowledge Yoon\u2019s significant concessions, which include <\/span>approving<\/span><\/a> export requests for self-propelled howitzers containing South Korean components to Ukraine. Seoul\u2019s willingness to provide the U.S. with hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition, even if considered a loan, replenishes the latter\u2019s supplies and may enable the shipment of more rounds from other sources to Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n Apart from its direct relations with neighboring great powers, Seoul must also contend with Russian threats to intensify support for North Korea if South Korean military aid reaches the Ukrainian front lines. This issue has been an underlying concern since the conflict\u2019s inception and was explicitly <\/span>articulated<\/span><\/a> by Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia\u2019s Security Council, in response to the ammunition loan announcement in April 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n