{"id":2200775,"date":"2023-04-20T18:58:45","date_gmt":"2023-04-20T09:58:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200775"},"modified":"2023-04-21T18:38:34","modified_gmt":"2023-04-21T09:38:34","slug":"russian-threats-of-reprisal-if-south-korea-arms-ukraine-likely-bluster-experts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/04\/russian-threats-of-reprisal-if-south-korea-arms-ukraine-likely-bluster-experts\/","title":{"rendered":"Russian threats of reprisal if South Korea arms Ukraine likely bluster: Experts"},"content":{"rendered":"
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol raised the possibility this week that the country could <\/span>provide lethal aid<\/span><\/a> to Ukraine if there is a \u201clarge-scale attack on civilians, massacre or serious violation of the laws of war,\u201d marking a significant shift in Seoul\u2019s stance.<\/span><\/p>\n Yoon and his predecessor, Moon Jae-in, had previously drawn a firm line at humanitarian aid only. The new position laid out in an interview with <\/span>Reuters<\/span><\/i> will likely have far-reaching implications for South Korea\u2019s regional security and international relations.<\/span><\/p>\n In response to Yoon\u2019s remarks, the Kremlin <\/span>warned<\/span><\/a> that supplying military aid to Ukraine would essentially involve Seoul in the war. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov <\/span>described<\/span><\/a> South Korea’s position as \u201cunfriendly\u201d and emphasized that any involvement would escalate the conflict.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy secretary of Russia\u2019s security council, even <\/span>hinted<\/span><\/a> that Moscow could supply Russia\u2019s latest weapons to North Korea if South Korea provides weapons to Ukraine.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The ROK presidential office <\/span>replied<\/span><\/a>, \u201cWhat we [the South Korean government] do in the future will depend on Russia.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n CHANGE OF HEART<\/b><\/p>\n Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, South Korea has primarily provided <\/span>humanitarian<\/span><\/a> support<\/span><\/a> while <\/span>avoiding<\/span><\/a> direct military aid, as the move might provoke Russia. Seoul frequently cited the <\/span>Foreign Trade Act<\/span><\/a>, which states that its exports can only be used for \u201cpeaceful purposes,\u201d to defend its position.<\/span><\/p>\n However, a senior presidential official told reporters on Thursday that \u201cthere is no legal provision in our country\u2019s domestic law that prohibits arms support to warring nations,\u201d leading to speculation that the peaceful purposes clause in the Foreign Trade Act could be interpreted as allowing Seoul \u201cto help Ukraine achieve peace.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n South Korea has avoided provoking Russia because its economic ties with Moscow run deep in certain key industries.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n South Korea completed its first carrier rocket, the <\/span>Naro-1<\/span><\/a>, through international cooperation with Russia. Even after South Korea joined international sanctions against Moscow, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co. (KHNP) successfully won a bid to <\/span>construct<\/span><\/a> the El-Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant by winning a subcontract from Atomstroyexport (ASE), a subsidiary of Moscow\u2019s state-owned Rosatom.<\/span><\/p>\n Further, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a Finnish nonprofit think tank, <\/span>reported<\/span><\/a> in Aug. 2022 that South Korea imported an estimated $1.7 billion worth of fossil fuels from Russia in the first five months of the invasion of Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n However, as the situation in Ukraine worsens, <\/span>pressure<\/span><\/a> from South Korea\u2019s Western partners to supply weapons has mounted, prompting Seoul to reconsider its position.<\/span><\/p>\n