{"id":2200775,"date":"2023-04-20T18:58:45","date_gmt":"2023-04-20T09:58:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200775"},"modified":"2023-04-21T18:38:34","modified_gmt":"2023-04-21T09:38:34","slug":"russian-threats-of-reprisal-if-south-korea-arms-ukraine-likely-bluster-experts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/04\/russian-threats-of-reprisal-if-south-korea-arms-ukraine-likely-bluster-experts\/","title":{"rendered":"Russian threats of reprisal if South Korea arms Ukraine likely bluster: Experts"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol raised the possibility this week that the country could <\/span>provide lethal aid<\/span><\/a> to Ukraine if there is a \u201clarge-scale attack on civilians, massacre or serious violation of the laws of war,\u201d marking a significant shift in Seoul\u2019s stance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon and his predecessor, Moon Jae-in, had previously drawn a firm line at humanitarian aid only. The new position laid out in an interview with <\/span>Reuters<\/span><\/i> will likely have far-reaching implications for South Korea\u2019s regional security and international relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

In response to Yoon\u2019s remarks, the Kremlin <\/span>warned<\/span><\/a> that supplying military aid to Ukraine would essentially involve Seoul in the war. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov <\/span>described<\/span><\/a> South Korea’s position as \u201cunfriendly\u201d and emphasized that any involvement would escalate the conflict.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy secretary of Russia\u2019s security council, even <\/span>hinted<\/span><\/a> that Moscow could supply Russia\u2019s latest weapons to North Korea if South Korea provides weapons to Ukraine.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The ROK presidential office <\/span>replied<\/span><\/a>, \u201cWhat we [the South Korean government] do in the future will depend on Russia.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

CHANGE OF HEART<\/b><\/p>\n

Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, South Korea has primarily provided <\/span>humanitarian<\/span><\/a> support<\/span><\/a> while <\/span>avoiding<\/span><\/a> direct military aid, as the move might provoke Russia. Seoul frequently cited the <\/span>Foreign Trade Act<\/span><\/a>, which states that its exports can only be used for \u201cpeaceful purposes,\u201d to defend its position.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, a senior presidential official told reporters on Thursday that \u201cthere is no legal provision in our country\u2019s domestic law that prohibits arms support to warring nations,\u201d leading to speculation that the peaceful purposes clause in the Foreign Trade Act could be interpreted as allowing Seoul \u201cto help Ukraine achieve peace.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea has avoided provoking Russia because its economic ties with Moscow run deep in certain key industries.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea completed its first carrier rocket, the <\/span>Naro-1<\/span><\/a>, through international cooperation with Russia. Even after South Korea joined international sanctions against Moscow, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co. (KHNP) successfully won a bid to <\/span>construct<\/span><\/a> the El-Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant by winning a subcontract from Atomstroyexport (ASE), a subsidiary of Moscow\u2019s state-owned Rosatom.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a Finnish nonprofit think tank, <\/span>reported<\/span><\/a> in Aug. 2022 that South Korea imported an estimated $1.7 billion worth of fossil fuels from Russia in the first five months of the invasion of Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, as the situation in Ukraine worsens, <\/span>pressure<\/span><\/a> from South Korea\u2019s Western partners to supply weapons has mounted, prompting Seoul to reconsider its position.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

President Seok-yeol Yoon meets with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, June 30, 2022 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

ARMING UKRAINE<\/b><\/p>\n

The Yoon administration\u2019s apparent willingness to provide lethal aid to Kyiv likely stems from its desire to align the ROK\u2019s interest with the U.S. and other democracies. Although cautious and worded carefully, South Korea\u2019s <\/span>Indo-Pacific strategy<\/span><\/a> made frequent references to a \u201crules-based order.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Balancing these factors, South Korea\u2019s decision to offer military support will depend on the relationship with the parties engaged in the war. Yoon\u2019s caveat that South Korea could supply military aid to Kyiv if a \u201clarge-scale attack on civilians\u201d occurs is indicative of Seoul\u2019s balancing act, as attacks against Ukrainian civilians have already occurred throughout the 14 months of the war.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Yoon <\/span>did not provide<\/span><\/a> any firm commitments regarding the timeline or the kinds of weapons or munitions Seoul might provide Kyiv, such a provision of weapons and munitions could have major impacts on the frontlines, especially in shoring up Ukraine\u2019s <\/span>ammunition supplies<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

RUSSIA\u2019S EMPTY THREATS<\/b><\/p>\n

Any South Korean provision of arms and munitions to Kyiv is certain to invite Moscow\u2019s anger. But experts question Russia\u2019s ability to retaliate against South Korea, even through North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Blake Herzinger, a research fellow in the foreign policy and defense program at the United States Studies Centre (USSC) told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that Russia is not in a position to provide high-end hardware to North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe vast majority of their military is committed to Ukraine and their domestic defense production is severely flagging due to their use rates and supply chain problems resulting from global sanctions,\u201d Herzinger said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cTheir regular customers for equipment have already reported that Moscow cannot meet the needs of their existing export customers,\u201d he explained.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mason Richey, an associate professor of international politics at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, echoed Herzinger\u2019s remarks.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt would surprise me if Moscow would be willing to part ways with its \u2018latest weapons\u2019 just to retaliate against South Korea for providing non-humanitarian assistance to Ukraine,\u201d Richey told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIn fact, I was under the impression that North Korea was supplying Russia with weaponry (artillery shells, apparently) rather than the other way around.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

While in theory, Russia could provide technical support and aid North Korea\u2019s budding <\/span>military spy satellite program<\/span><\/a>, Daniel Pinkston, a professor in international relations at Troy University, thinks Russian officials might be relying on empty threats.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cRussia can provide early warning systems to help North Korea better observe South Korea. That\u2019s pretty costless for the Russians. It will not detract from their military campaign,\u201d Pinkston told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

But he questioned the nature of the trade under such a hypothetical scenario.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cDoes it help the Russians? Are the North Koreans going to pay for this stuff? Will the Russians get money out of it? What\u2019s the trade-off?\u201d Pinkston asked.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, Russia might already have provided military assistance to North Korea anyway. Bruce Bennett, a defense researcher at RAND Corporation, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that North Korea\u2019s missile programs may have gotten a big boost from Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe KN-23 resembles the design of the Russian Iskander ballistic missile. I think Russia also has helped with those military technologies,\u201d he said. \u201cTo me, Medvedev is threatening to do things that Russia has already been doing when Seoul sent no aid to Ukraine.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES<\/b><\/p>\n

Even if Russia does not have as much leverage over South Korea as Russian officials might imply, Moscow could refuse to sell its coal to Seoul. The Yoon administration announced it would <\/span>freeze utility fees<\/span><\/a> for the first half of the year partly due to soaring electricity and gas bills.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea faces challenges and opportunities if it decides to provide Ukraine with arms. Yoon will seek to strengthen ties with Washington and other partners as he manages the ROK\u2019s position.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Arius Derr<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol raised the possibility this week that the country could provide lethal aid to Ukraine if there is a \u201clarge-scale attack on civilians, massacre or serious violation of the laws of war,\u201d marking a significant shift in Seoul\u2019s stance. Yoon and his predecessor, Moon Jae-in, had previously drawn a firm line […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2200776,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,28],"class_list":["post-2200775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nRussian threats of reprisal if South Korea arms Ukraine likely bluster: Experts - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/04\/russian-threats-of-reprisal-if-south-korea-arms-ukraine-likely-bluster-experts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Russian threats of reprisal if South Korea arms Ukraine likely bluster: Experts - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol raised the possibility this week that the country could provide lethal aid to Ukraine if there is a \u201clarge-scale attack on civilians, massacre or serious violation of the laws of war,\u201d marking a significant shift in Seoul\u2019s stance. 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