{"id":2200725,"date":"2023-04-14T18:54:26","date_gmt":"2023-04-14T09:54:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200725"},"modified":"2023-04-20T19:05:15","modified_gmt":"2023-04-20T10:05:15","slug":"how-improved-south-korea-japan-ties-will-impact-the-indo-pacific-region","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/04\/how-improved-south-korea-japan-ties-will-impact-the-indo-pacific-region\/","title":{"rendered":"How improved South Korea-Japan ties will impact the Indo-Pacific region"},"content":{"rendered":"

Global power dynamics are currently undergoing a shift as countries align themselves with either the U.S. or China, in response to <\/span>expanding Chinese hegemony<\/span><\/a> and U.S. coercion that many nations face.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea and Japan\u2019s recent efforts to <\/span>improve ties<\/span><\/a> are part of this realignment, as are Seoul\u2019s efforts to bolster its alliance with Washington since Yoon Suk-yeol took office.<\/span><\/p>\n

These developments have led some to conclude that South Korea could or should join the Quad security dialogue that includes the U.S., Japan, India and Australia, a multilateral grouping that many observers see as an attempt to contain China. One analyst has <\/span>suggested<\/span><\/a> that Seoul would even be a better fit for the Quad than New Delhi.<\/span><\/p>\n

But while the U.S. has welcomed South Korea\u2019s recent geopolitical approach, a closer analysis of Seoul\u2019s positions shows that it does not fully align yet with Washington on Beijing and remains far more focused on North Korea than the rest of the Quad, suggesting membership is not in the offing anytime soon.<\/span><\/p>\n

WILL IMPROVED ROK-JAPAN TIES LAST?<\/b><\/p>\n

Improved ties between South Korea and Japan are a positive development for the Indo-Pacific region. Many countries, particularly the <\/span>U.S.<\/span><\/a>, would welcome this progress as it has urged both nations to resolve their legacy issues. However, it would be an overreach to view improved bilateral relations as a driver of drastic systemic change for the U.S. alliance system.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is because the trilateral relations between the U.S., South Korea and Japan primarily aim to <\/span>address<\/span><\/a> common challenges in the Northeast Asian region. A joint statement released after a recent trilateral meeting of special envoys for North Korea, for instance, emphasized the need \u201cto counter the threat the DPRK poses to regional and global security.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

With this new development, improved collaboration between the trilateral and bilateral partners in coordinating strategies and tactics can be expected, as well as <\/span>renewed military intelligence and information sharing<\/span><\/a>. However, it is too early to predict a complete return to normalcy in the relationship. While South Korea-Japan ties are slowly progressing, <\/span>certain<\/span><\/a> factors<\/span><\/a> could quickly derail the relationship if issues are not handled properly.<\/span><\/p>\n

The state-led approach taken by President Yoon Suk-yeol has been tried before by former President Park Geun-hye, but it failed to last when <\/span>Moon Jae-in<\/span><\/a> took over. Yoon\u2019s consistently low popularity and domestic opposition to the deal indicate a lack of bipartisan consensus on improving relations with Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, <\/span>unresolved<\/span><\/a> issues<\/span><\/a> such as Japanese history textbooks and the Fukushima nuclear waste discharge remain contentious. A <\/span>recent poll<\/span><\/a> showed that 59% of South Koreans oppose Yoon\u2019s diplomatic deal with Tokyo, including civic groups and victims, suggesting a lack of public support.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other hand, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida\u2019s <\/span>increasing popularity<\/span><\/a> and the positive perception of the <\/span>South Korean proposal<\/span><\/a> in Japan fuel the feeling of what the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) leader Lee Jae-myung has <\/span>termed<\/span><\/a> \u201chumiliating\u201d diplomacy.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

An illustration of opposing generals | Image: Korea Pro<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

THE CHINA QUESTION<\/b><\/p>\n

In examining the China question, central to the Indo-Pacific puzzle, it is crucial to understand South Korea and Japan\u2019s stance. First, the improved ties between the two countries are not directed toward China. For instance, the <\/span>joint statement<\/span><\/a> released after the March summit between the ROK and Japanese leaders does not mention China\u2019s behavior in any context related to the Indo-Pacific, nor does the <\/span>U.S.-South Korea joint statement<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, even South Korea, a U.S. treaty ally, does not entirely align with the U.S. on China due to the ROK\u2019s <\/span>reliance<\/span><\/a> on the U.S. for its defense and on China for its economy. Additionally, South Korea faces <\/span>alliance constraints<\/span><\/a> that limit its ability to exercise a high degree of strategic autonomy.<\/span><\/p>\n

This stands in stark contrast to the <\/span>statement<\/span><\/a> released after the most recent U.S.-Japan summit, which mentions China for its \u201cinconsistent actions with the rule-based international order.\u201d Japan\u2019s <\/span>National Security Strategy<\/span><\/a> also explicitly refers to China, Russia and North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is logical for Japan to coordinate closely with the U.S. on Russia, as it threatens Japanese security in the North Pacific region. While South Korea\u2019s position on peace across the Taiwan Strait aligns with Japan, its <\/span>role<\/span><\/a> in a cross-strait conflict would remain remote compared to <\/span>Japan\u2019s involvement<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

In conclusion, the differing attitudes toward China’s actions in Seoul and Tokyo differentiate the two countries, with South Korea exhibiting a more indifferent stance.<\/span><\/p>\n

AT INDIA\u2019S EXPENSE?<\/b><\/p>\n

The improvement of relations between South Korea and Japan has led some commentators to <\/span>argue<\/span><\/a> that it could weaken India\u2019s position in the Quad. However, it is unlikely that the improved relations will have any consequences on India\u2019s role in the Quad.<\/span><\/p>\n

For one, India is not a U.S. <\/span>ally<\/span><\/a> but a partner, so expecting the same level of alignment as an ally would be misplaced. Second, the Quad is not an <\/span>Asian NATO<\/span><\/a> or a U.S.-led alliance, meaning it does not target any specific country and there is no obligation to maintain a unified stance with the U.S. Finally, the Quad\u2019s focus is on <\/span>upholding<\/span><\/a> the principles of freedom and the rule of law, concentrating mainly on issues in the Indo-Pacific region.<\/span><\/p>\n

Therefore, comparing the alliance South Korea and Japan share with the U.S. to India\u2019s partnership with the U.S. via the Quad is counterproductive.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Quad is a flexible partnership that aims to develop habits of cooperation, as it operates in different geographic areas with diverse stakeholders with distinct ideologies and interests. Thus, assuming that Quad members must have a common position on every issue would be a mischaracterization.<\/span><\/p>\n

Arzan Tarapore<\/span><\/a>, a <\/span>South Asia research scholar at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), described India\u2019s approach to the Quad as <\/span>\u201c<\/span>zone balancing<\/span><\/a>.\u201d This strategy focuses on building third parties’ capacities rather than solely concentrating on forming alliances.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result of this approach, there is now a standardized \u201c2+2\u201d system, a consultative mechanism, where Quad member states\u2019 foreign and defense ministers regularly discuss issues concerning the Indo-Pacific region.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, India has established foundational agreements with the <\/span>U.S.<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Australia<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>Japan<\/span><\/a>. These agreements have facilitated the development of trust, strategic communication, interoperability and institutional mechanisms between India and the other Quad member states.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Quad leaders’ meeting, May 24, 2022 | Image: Wikimedia Commons<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

CONSENSUS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC<\/b><\/p>\n

Another crucial question is whether improved relations with Japan would lead South Korea to join the Quad in the coming years. In short, the answer is no.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Outside of normalizing bilateral diplomatic ties and economic relations, improved ROK-Japan relations are primarily focused on addressing challenges posed by the DPRK. Expanding the agenda beyond this could burden the two countries\u2019 ties with unrealistic expectations.<\/span><\/p>\n

The lack of bipartisan consensus on Indo-Pacific issues in Seoul and Tokyo could strain relations if the agenda expands, potentially jeopardizing existing agreements. Additionally, the U.S. alliance could <\/span>constrain<\/span><\/a> Seoul\u2019s actions if China becomes a more prominent issue, making it an outlier.<\/span><\/p>\n

These factors indicate that the Indo-Pacific region requires a multilateral approach to building specific consensus. Solutions lie outside the existing alliance mechanisms and Seoul\u2019s stance on these issues remains uncertain. Consequently, the likelihood of South Korea joining the Quad is low.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another factor likely to hinder South Korea\u2019s admission to the Quad is opposition from Japan and the<\/span> U.S.<\/span><\/a> due to the risk of bilateral domestic issues spilling over and impacting the group\u2019s need for consensus. If South Korea wishes to join the Quad, it should first strengthen and deepen its bilateral ties with India, Japan and Australia, creating a broad-based consensus for the Indo-Pacific region, as expressed in its <\/span>Indo-Pacific strategy<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

For now, Seoul\u2019s domestic divide is a critical factor and overlooking it could invite a repeat of <\/span>past mistakes<\/span><\/a>. Therefore, the chances of South Korea joining the Quad appear slim.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global power dynamics are currently undergoing a shift as countries align themselves with either the U.S. or China, in response to expanding Chinese hegemony and U.S. coercion that many nations face. 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