{"id":2200676,"date":"2023-04-10T19:50:44","date_gmt":"2023-04-10T10:50:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200676"},"modified":"2023-04-11T18:28:11","modified_gmt":"2023-04-11T09:28:11","slug":"how-south-koreas-political-parties-are-preparing-for-upcoming-campaign-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/04\/how-south-koreas-political-parties-are-preparing-for-upcoming-campaign-season\/","title":{"rendered":"How South Korea\u2019s political parties are preparing for upcoming campaign season"},"content":{"rendered":"

Political campaigns will begin dominating South Korea\u2019s political discourse in the fall as parliamentary elections are one year away. The election\u2019s outcome, shaped by voters\u2019 desire to punish or reward President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s performance, will be vital for the country\u2019s two major parties \u2014 the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and the main opposition Democratic Party (DP).<\/span><\/p>\n

As the two major parties will battle one another for control of the legislature, this <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> analysis will explore the two parties\u2019 prospects, challenges and goals.<\/span><\/p>\n

THE PEOPLE POWER PARTY\u2019S PROSPECTS<\/b><\/p>\n

Much is at stake for Yoon and the PPP. Depending on the election\u2019s results, Yoon will either be able to begin his legislative agenda in earnest or will begin his lame-duck status just three years into his presidency.<\/span><\/p>\n

The DP holds <\/span>169 seats<\/span><\/a>, whereas the PPP has 115 seats in the 300-seat unicameral legislative body.<\/span><\/p>\n

But even if the PPP secures a majority, Yoon will not enjoy unrestrained power. Yoon will still be limited by the <\/span>2014 National Assembly Advancement Act<\/span><\/a>, which requires a party to have at least 180 seats, or three-fifths of parliament, to pass legislation without worrying about the opposing party\u2019s ability to filibuster.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This is a difficult feat, as it has only been achieved twice in the country\u2019s political history.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the challenges, <\/span>political<\/span><\/a> commentators<\/span><\/a> expect the conservative PPP to gain more seats in the upcoming elections \u2014 particularly in the Seoul metropolitan area and Chungcheong Province \u2014 as the DP does not enjoy the kind of support it did in 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n

The 2020 elections were unique due to the COVID-19 pandemic and then-President Moon Jae-in\u2019s <\/span>high approval ratings<\/span><\/a>, which helped to boost the DP\u2019s popularity. However, <\/span>polls<\/span><\/a> now indicate that both parties have similar approval ratings \u2014 the DP enjoys a 33% approval rate while the PPP\u2019s is 32%.<\/span><\/p>\n

The question is whether the PPP will gain enough seats to attain a majority in the National Assembly for the next four years. To maximize their gains, <\/span>cabinet ministers<\/span><\/a> who used to be lawmakers will resign and return to their previous positions, as South Korea\u2019s <\/span>Public Official Election Act<\/span><\/a> requires cabinet members to resign from their posts at least 90 days before election day.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon will also likely <\/span>remove<\/span><\/a> opponents from key party positions and replace them with his supporters. This will likely result in numerous former ministers, vice ministers, and administration secretaries among the PPP\u2019s prospective candidates.<\/span><\/p>\n

One potential game-changer could be justice minister Han Dong-hoon, who is immensely <\/span>popular<\/span><\/a> among conservatives. If he decides to run for election, he could attract considerable support.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Then-candidate Yoon Suk-yeol participates in a campaign rally with People Power Party lawmakers, Jan. 26, 2022 | Image: Wikimedia Commons<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

DEMOCRATIC DREAMS<\/b><\/p>\n

Various factors could significantly impact the upcoming legislative elections, including Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung\u2019s political fate.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prosecutors <\/span>indicted<\/span><\/a> Lee Jae-myung without detention in March over various alleged violations while serving as Seongnam’s mayor from 2016 to 2018. He also <\/span>avoided<\/span><\/a> arrest over bribery allegations after a narrow parliamentary vote in February.<\/span><\/p>\n

Besides Lee\u2019s legal woes, there is also the risk that the conflict between Lee Jae-myung\u2019s supporters and his opponents within the DP could escalate, leading to a split within the opposition party. One person from within the DP who might be able to challenge Lee\u2019s leadership is former prime minister Lee Nak-yon.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee Nak-yon was Lee Jae-myung\u2019s <\/span>most formidable opponent<\/span><\/a> during the Democratic Party\u2019s primaries before the presidential election. It is also <\/span>suspected<\/span><\/a> that DP lawmakers loyal to Lee Nak-yon were responsible for Lee Jae-myung only narrowly avoiding arrest in February instead of the comfortable margin Lee Jae-myung expected.<\/span><\/p>\n

If Lee Jae-myung remains in control of the DP, he will likely remove his opponents from key parliamentary committees and replace them with his supporters.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Another unknown factor is the future of Cho Kuk, the former Justice Minister who <\/span>resigned<\/span><\/a> in disgrace and was <\/span>recently sentenced<\/span><\/a> to jail but still has a devoted fan base. If he decides to throw his hat in the ring, it could cause further divisions within the party.<\/span><\/p>\n

RALLYING SUPPORT<\/b><\/p>\n

Both Yoon Suk-yeol and Lee Jae-myung (or another opposition DP leader if Lee is removed) will likely try to strengthen their respective political positions by purging their parties of opponents and nominating a significant number of their supporters for the upcoming elections.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But the success of this strategy will depend on whether the parties can avoid overly negative attacks among nominees.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the past, conservatives struggled in elections due to their tendency to experience <\/span>high-profile internal strife<\/span><\/a> during the nomination process. Since Lee Jun-seok, known for his hostility toward Yoon, remains prominent in the PPP, the conservative party\u2019s nomination process could probably be marred by party infighting.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee Jun-seok is the former leader of the PPP who was voted out of office by his fellow lawmakers over a sex scandal. He was the youngest person to be elected party leader, and he holds influence among many young male voters.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Main opposition leader Lee Jae-myung participates in a political rally, March 30, 2023 | Image: Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

ELECTION PROSPECTS<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korean elections are known for their unpredictability. For instance, Yoon Suk-yeol <\/span>defeated<\/span><\/a> Lee Jae-myung by a 0.85 percentage point gap. But one crucial indicator can provide insight into the outcome \u2014 the president\u2019s approval rating.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Some political observers <\/span>point out<\/span><\/a> that if the president\u2019s approval rating doesn\u2019t exceed 40%, it would be difficult for the PPP to make significant gains. Another crucial factor is voter sentiment toward \u201cpunishing\u201d or \u201crewarding\u201d the government. This will play a significant role in determining the election outcome.<\/span><\/p>\n

The ruling party was <\/span>defeated<\/span><\/a> in a by-election on April 5, albeit by a small margin. What is particularly striking about this defeat is that the conservatives lost in their stronghold, the southeast Gyeongsang Province.<\/span><\/p>\n

A recent <\/span>poll<\/span><\/a> by Gallup Korea indicates that the majority of respondents lean toward punishing the government due to a <\/span>myriad of reasons<\/span><\/a>, such as inflationary pressures and disapproval of his foreign policy toward Japan. Approximately 50% of the poll\u2019s respondents said they expected the opposition to fare well in next year\u2019s elections, while 36% felt the same about the ruling party.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

At this stage, the situation does not favor the ruling PPP. While it appears almost certain that the PPP will gain more seats because the aforementioned effect Moon Jae-in had on the DP in 2020 is no longer present, the PPP\u2019s chronic unpopularity means their gains might be moderate.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the ruling PPP seeks to capitalize on Lee Jae-myung\u2019s legal woes. They <\/span>hope<\/span><\/a> that Lee Jae-myung, the likely DP candidate, will drive higher conservative voter turnout while alienating moderate voters, prompting them to vote in favor of his PPP opponents and ultimately securing a victory for the conservatives.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For the DP, failure to retain their parliamentary majority will mean they will also likely fail to retake the presidency in 2027.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And for the PPP, if it fails to win even a simple majority of the National Assembly, Yoon will become a lame-duck president, and all of his initiatives \u2014 foreign and domestic \u2014 will be thrown into crisis.<\/span><\/p>\n

Much is at stake, and the two parties will fight like hell to win.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Political campaigns will begin dominating South Korea\u2019s political discourse in the fall as parliamentary elections are one year away. The election\u2019s outcome, shaped by voters\u2019 desire to punish or reward President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s performance, will be vital for the country\u2019s two major parties \u2014 the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and the main opposition Democratic […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2200679,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[27],"class_list":["post-2200676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-domestic-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nHow South Korea\u2019s political parties are preparing for upcoming campaign season - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/04\/how-south-koreas-political-parties-are-preparing-for-upcoming-campaign-season\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How South Korea\u2019s political parties are preparing for upcoming campaign season - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Political campaigns will begin dominating South Korea\u2019s political discourse in the fall as parliamentary elections are one year away. 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