{"id":2200594,"date":"2023-03-31T19:48:47","date_gmt":"2023-03-31T10:48:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200594"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:07:47","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:07:47","slug":"why-south-korea-is-paying-close-attention-to-the-indictment-of-donald-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/why-south-korea-is-paying-close-attention-to-the-indictment-of-donald-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"Why South Korea is paying close attention to the indictment of Donald Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump became the first former U.S. president to be indicted on criminal charges on Thursday, and experts say the unprecedented development could have implications as far-reaching as the Korean Peninsula.<\/span><\/p>\n

Imprisoning former presidents is almost <\/span>standard<\/span><\/a> practice<\/span><\/a> in South Korea. But the U.S. is treading uncharted waters, said attorney and <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> contributor Jumin Lee.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cTwo-hundred-and-fifty years, 46 presidents \u2014 none of them had criminal charges brought against them after they left office. Until today.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The New York court\u2019s decision to indict the former U.S. president could either boost or derail his efforts to return to office. And whether or not Trump returns to the White House in 2024 will have severe ramifications for South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump seemingly did all he could to weaken the U.S.-ROK alliance from 2017 to 2021, disparaging South Korea as a free-rider and imposing huge on-year costs to Seoul to keep U.S. troops in the country.<\/span><\/p>\n

Many South Koreans were uncertain whether the U.S. would intervene in the event of a North Korean attack on the South or whether it would honor its nuclear umbrella commitments.<\/span><\/p>\n

Joe Biden and his ROK counterpart Yoon Suk-yeol have worked hard to address these concerns and rebuild trust in the alliance. The Yoon administration\u2019s defense strategy against North Korean threats rests on <\/span>extended deterrence<\/span><\/a> and a strong alliance. Joint exercises are a key pillar of alliance readiness.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, South Korea <\/span>did not hesitate to sign on<\/span><\/a> to the U.S.-led <\/span>Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity<\/span><\/a> (IPEF) \u2014 the Biden administration\u2019s effort to regain U.S. footing in the regional economy after Trump torpedoed the multilateral <\/span>Trans-Pacific Partnership<\/span><\/a> deal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon\u2019s agreement to join IPEF was surprising as Seoul previously eschewed U.S.-led trade groups and networks.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, if the Trump indictment rallies U.S. conservatives to vote Trump back into office, it could severely limit Washington\u2019s ability to convince Seoul and others in the region to sign on to U.S. leadership initiatives in East Asia.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Trump was in office, he was openly critical of U.S. overseas defense spending, including in South Korea.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It led to heated <\/span>negotiations<\/span><\/a> between Washington and Seoul over the Special Measures Agreement (SMA). U.S. officials demanded that the ROK increase its financial contribution to maintain the U.S. force presence in South Korea by over 400%.<\/span><\/p>\n

After meeting with Kim Jong Un, Trump also unilaterally <\/span>announced<\/span><\/a> in 2018 that the U.S. would suspend joint military exercises with South Korea, which he described as \u201cinappropriate, expensive\u201d and \u201cprovocative.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Rob York, the program director for regional affairs at Pacific Forum, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that if Trump were to return to office, the primary concern for South Korea would be the end of \u2014 or at least the devaluing \u2014 of the alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cTrump could always say that he finds individual aspects of the alliance not to be beneficial, such as joint training drills and other forms of cooperation,\u201d York said. \u201cI\u2019m not so much concerned about the alliance ending in such an instance as I am about it losing relevance.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announces a plan to support small businesses, March 18, 2023 | Image: Twitter<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

GOP CHALLENGER<\/b><\/p>\n

However, it is not a given that the indictment will boost Trump\u2019s reelection bid \u2014 at least not one that might enjoy sustained support.<\/span><\/p>\n

Robert Kelly, \u200b\u200ban associate professor of international relations at Pusan National University, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that while the indictment may fuel Trump\u2019s \u201cvictim narrative,\u201d it might not propel him back to the White House next year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt [the indictment] helps him with the GOP primary, as it vindicates the victim narrative central to MAGA identity,\u201d Kelly said. \u201cSo that will help him against [Ron] DeSantis, but it will confirm the rest of the country\u2019s opinion that he is unfit.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Although the Yoon administration might be relieved if the GOP rejects Trump due to his indictment, a Republican presidential victory \u2014 particularly by DeSantis \u2014 will not entirely allay Seoul\u2019s concerns.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee, the attorney, said that although a second Trump term could lead to a substantial scaling-down of alliance commitment and possibly even the withdrawal of U.S. Forces in Korea (USFK), a DeSantis administration could continue at least some of Trump\u2019s policies as the GOP base gravitates towards extreme isolationist tendencies.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cEvery U.S. ally knows that every promise the U.S. makes is potentially worthless if one election goes the wrong way four years down the line,\u201d he added.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cTHIS IS FINE\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

No one in the South Korean ruling or opposition parties has publicly commented on the possibility of Trump\u2019s return to the White House. For now, the Yoon administration is laser-focused on the upcoming summit with Biden, where he will be only the second leader to make a state visit to the U.S. since Biden took office.<\/span><\/p>\n

During his visit, Yoon will most likely focus on ironing out thorny issues, such as ensuring that South Korean businesses are not negatively impacted by the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act or the Science and CHIPS Act.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

He and Biden will also emphasize the importance of extended deterrence and the strength of the \u201ciron-clad\u201d alliance between the two countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the elephant in the room will be the political implications of Trump\u2019s indictment. It is unlikely that the South Korean officials who will participate in the state visit to the U.S. are not privately concerned about the possibility of Trump\u2019s return.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A second Trump term would upend Yoon\u2019s entire foreign policy initiative, almost guaranteeing that the main opposition Democratic Party retakes the ROK presidency in 2027.<\/span><\/p>\n

As U.S. elections draw near and depending on how well Trump performs in the polls, observers can expect more South Korean political leaders to speak up about developing an indigenous nuclear weapons program.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The louder the voices, the more they would indicate a growing lack of trust in the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Arius Derr<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump became the first former U.S. president to be indicted on criminal charges on Thursday, and experts say the unprecedented development could have implications as far-reaching as the Korean Peninsula. Imprisoning former presidents is almost standard practice in South Korea. But the U.S. is treading uncharted waters, said attorney and Korea Pro contributor Jumin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2200595,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,27,28],"class_list":["post-2200594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-domestic-politics","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy South Korea is paying close attention to the indictment of Donald Trump - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/why-south-korea-is-paying-close-attention-to-the-indictment-of-donald-trump\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why South Korea is paying close attention to the indictment of Donald Trump - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Donald Trump became the first former U.S. president to be indicted on criminal charges on Thursday, and experts say the unprecedented development could have implications as far-reaching as the Korean Peninsula. 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