{"id":2200590,"date":"2023-03-31T18:39:07","date_gmt":"2023-03-31T09:39:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200590"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:07:47","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:07:47","slug":"conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/","title":{"rendered":"Conservative base still behind Yoon, but broader support appears to wane"},"content":{"rendered":"

President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s approval numbers declined from the previous week, but the reasons for this drop are not entirely clear. It is likely the result of concurrent factors, but a closer look at the numbers shows that the president\u2019s base is solidly behind him.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For Yoon, that is likely all that matters, as it gives him the political cover needed to pursue his agenda, but that might not be a practical long-term solution.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Gallup Korea\u2019s <\/span>most recent<\/span><\/a> polling reveals that Yoon\u2019s approval rates fell to 30%, a decline of 4 percentage points from the previous week. This is a significant decline and lies outside the poll\u2019s 3.1% margin of error.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The immediate assumption is that the ongoing debate around Yoon\u2019s attempts to reset ROK-Japan relations and settle the forced wartime labor issue has led to the decline. But that is not made clear by the data.<\/span><\/p>\n

First, the timing for such a decline does not line up. Seoul and Tokyo announced a resolution to the issue \u2014 in which reparations would come from South Korean funds, not Japanese \u2014 at the beginning of March, and most of the details of the deal are now well-known.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

NBS polling<\/span><\/a> earlier this week found that 60% disapproved of the results of the Yoon-Kishida summit this month, which is a good proxy for attitudes toward the deal itself. But if voters\u2019 attitudes toward the ROK-Japan deal were a significant factor that caused Yoon\u2019s declining approval numbers, then it should have happened much sooner.<\/span><\/p>\n

Second, much of the decline was driven by an 11-percentage point drop among those in their 20s from the <\/span>week before<\/span><\/a>. It is unclear if the decline was more prominent among men or women, as the polling results did not offer breakdowns by gender.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon saw a modest bump among those in their 30s. However, this bump is virtually negligible given the margins of error. These are cohorts highly opposed to the president and if they were reacting to the same stimulus \u2014 textbook <\/span>revisions<\/span><\/a> in Japan, for example \u2014 it would be expected that approval rates within those cohorts would react similarly. That did not happen.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Dokdo, Sept. 25, 2016 | Image: Koreanet_Honorary_Reporters_Dokdo_01 via Republic of Korea Flickr<\/a> (CC BY-SA 2.0<\/a>)<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

Third, the most recent <\/span>news<\/span><\/a> on the deal involved the issue of Dokdo. Local media outlets reported that senior Japanese officials have pushed to treat the Dokdo islets, which Japan refers to as Takeshima, as a \u201cdiplomatic issue\u201d that must be resolved if the two countries are to improve their relationship.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Dokdo remains under the ROK\u2019s control, Japan continues to claim sovereignty over the islets, and local media outlets have reported that Japan would seek to advance its claims to the islets while Yoon is in office.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given South Koreans\u2019 sensitivity over Dokdo, it has the potential to be a political landmine for the Yoon administration. However, that report was published on the evening of March 29, meaning that at most one-third of the sample \u2014 likely much less \u2014 was aware of the report given the fielding dates of March 28-30.<\/span><\/p>\n

The same is true of the unexpected <\/span>resignation<\/span><\/a> of former national security adviser Kim Sung-han and the subsequent mini-reshuffle of Yoon\u2019s foreign policy team.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thus, Yoon\u2019s declining approval numbers cannot be pinned on a single issue. Myriad factors are at play. While the steady drip of criticism about the Japan deal continues, the economic environment remains <\/span>inflationary<\/span><\/a>, the president had to <\/span>reverse course<\/span><\/a> on the proposal to extend weekly working hours from 52 to 69 hours, and credit risks <\/span>continue to grow<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

But Yoon Suk-yeol likely pays closer attention to one metric above all else \u2014 his base support. Polls indicate he enjoys 70% approval among People Power Party (PPP) supporters. As long as a significant portion of the base supports him, Yoon will likely feel he has sufficient political capital to pursue his agenda.<\/span><\/p>\n

That strategy may face more pressure the closer South Korea gets to parliamentary elections next year. For the past few months, the PPP consistently enjoyed higher approval ratings than the main opposition Democratic Party (DP). That changed at the end of March: <\/span>Gallup Korea polls<\/span><\/a> show that the DP\u2019s approval rating is 35%, while the PPP\u2019s is 34%.<\/span><\/p>\n

As the election nears, Yoon may need to broaden his base to improve his party\u2019s chances of gaining control of the National Assembly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s approval numbers declined from the previous week, but the reasons for this drop are not entirely clear. It is likely the result of concurrent factors, but a closer look at the numbers shows that the president\u2019s base is solidly behind him.\u00a0 For Yoon, that is likely all that matters, as it gives […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2200591,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[27,28],"class_list":["post-2200590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-domestic-politics","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nConservative base still behind Yoon, but broader support appears to wane - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Conservative base still behind Yoon, but broader support appears to wane - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s approval numbers declined from the previous week, but the reasons for this drop are not entirely clear. It is likely the result of concurrent factors, but a closer look at the numbers shows that the president\u2019s base is solidly behind him.\u00a0 For Yoon, that is likely all that matters, as it gives […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nknewsorg\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-03-31T09:39:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-05T07:07:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/03\/yoon-feature-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1870\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"johnleenknews\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@southkoreapro\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@southkoreapro\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Karl Friedhoff\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"johnleenknews\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#\/schema\/person\/b9766dba611638edc06a6e0b7078714d\"},\"headline\":\"Conservative base still behind Yoon, but broader support appears to wane\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-31T09:39:07+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-05T07:07:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/\"},\"wordCount\":747,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/03\/yoon-feature-1.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Domestic Politics\",\"Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Analysis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/\",\"name\":\"Conservative base still behind Yoon, but broader support appears to wane - KOREA PRO\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/03\/yoon-feature-1.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-31T09:39:07+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-05T07:07:47+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/03\/yoon-feature-1.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/03\/yoon-feature-1.jpg\",\"width\":1870,\"height\":1000},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Conservative base still behind Yoon, but broader support appears to wane\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/\",\"name\":\"KOREA PRO\",\"description\":\"Be smart about South Korea. Up-to-date analysis on foreign relations, politics, society and economy. Made by the producers of NK PRO and NK News.\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#organization\",\"name\":\"KOREA PRO\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2022\/11\/logo.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2022\/11\/logo.png\",\"width\":360,\"height\":50,\"caption\":\"KOREA PRO\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nknewsorg\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/southkoreapro\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Conservative base still behind Yoon, but broader support appears to wane - KOREA PRO","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Conservative base still behind Yoon, but broader support appears to wane - KOREA PRO","og_description":"President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s approval numbers declined from the previous week, but the reasons for this drop are not entirely clear. It is likely the result of concurrent factors, but a closer look at the numbers shows that the president\u2019s base is solidly behind him.\u00a0 For Yoon, that is likely all that matters, as it gives […]","og_url":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/","og_site_name":"KOREA PRO","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nknewsorg\/","article_published_time":"2023-03-31T09:39:07+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-04-05T07:07:47+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1870,"height":1000,"url":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/03\/yoon-feature-1.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"johnleenknews","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@southkoreapro","twitter_site":"@southkoreapro","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Karl Friedhoff","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/"},"author":{"name":"johnleenknews","@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#\/schema\/person\/b9766dba611638edc06a6e0b7078714d"},"headline":"Conservative base still behind Yoon, but broader support appears to wane","datePublished":"2023-03-31T09:39:07+00:00","dateModified":"2023-04-05T07:07:47+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/"},"wordCount":747,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/03\/yoon-feature-1.jpg","keywords":["Domestic Politics","Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations"],"articleSection":["Analysis"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/","url":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/","name":"Conservative base still behind Yoon, but broader support appears to wane - KOREA PRO","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/03\/yoon-feature-1.jpg","datePublished":"2023-03-31T09:39:07+00:00","dateModified":"2023-04-05T07:07:47+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/03\/yoon-feature-1.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/assets.korearisk.com\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/03\/yoon-feature-1.jpg","width":1870,"height":1000},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/conservative-base-still-behind-yoon-but-broader-support-appears-to-wane\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Conservative base still behind Yoon, but broader support appears to wane"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#website","url":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/","name":"KOREA PRO","description":"Be smart about South Korea. Up-to-date analysis on foreign relations, politics, society and economy. Made by the producers of NK PRO and NK News.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#organization","name":"KOREA PRO","url":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2022\/11\/logo.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2022\/11\/logo.png","width":360,"height":50,"caption":"KOREA PRO"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nknewsorg\/","https:\/\/x.com\/southkoreapro"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2200590"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10407"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2200590"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2200590\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2200592,"href":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2200590\/revisions\/2200592"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2200591"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2200590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2200590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2200590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}