{"id":2200483,"date":"2023-03-23T18:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-23T09:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200483"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:07:51","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:07:51","slug":"why-chinese-spy-balloons-could-be-harbingers-for-us-rok-alliance-tensions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/why-chinese-spy-balloons-could-be-harbingers-for-us-rok-alliance-tensions\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Chinese spy balloons could be harbingers for US-ROK alliance tensions"},"content":{"rendered":"

The U.S.-ROK alliance has <\/span>rebounded<\/span><\/a> under presidents Joe Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol. But China\u2019s recent flying of a <\/span>surveillance balloon<\/span><\/a> into U.S. airspace could be the starting point of a divergence between Seoul and Washington. While the Biden administration will be under more pressure to display it is prepared for a possible armed conflict with China, South Korea is unlikely to overtly support the U.S.-ROK Combined Forces Command (CFC) being included in military plans beyond the peninsula.<\/span><\/p>\n

For most of its existence, the CFC has focused on one mission: the defense of South Korea from the North. Thus, South Korea is unlikely to support what Seoul will see as a dwindling focus on the North Korean threat even as the North continues to fire off missiles and apparently prepares for its seventh nuclear test.<\/span><\/p>\n

But amid these continued provocations, China\u2019s surveillance balloon <\/span>drove home<\/span><\/a> the point among average Americans that China represents a formidable national security challenge. As such, with the 2024 U.S. presidential election around the corner, the Biden administration will be under pressure to show voters that it can respond to concurrent conflicts with China and North Korea should hostilities break out in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

As U.S. military planners must further consider scenarios that include the defense of Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion \u2014 which would most likely necessitate USFK\u2019s participation \u2014 Seoul\u2019s concerns about being abandoned by its U.S. ally will likely grow. Yoon Suk-yeol <\/span>expressed<\/span><\/a> concern last year that a potential military conflict between China and Taiwan could raise the likelihood of North Korea\u2019s provocations, as the two countries could coordinate their plans to divert U.S. forces as much as possible.<\/span><\/p>\n

As the U.S. threat perception of the region grows beyond the Korean Peninsula, Washington might be unable to address Seoul\u2019s concerns to ensure the latter\u2019s participation within Washington\u2019s preferred time frame.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

President Yoon Suk-yeol presides over a cabinet meeting, March 21, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

LIMITED SCOPE<\/b><\/p>\n

For over 70 years, the U.S.-ROK alliance has focused solely on the North Korean threat. Until recently, this single-minded focus made sense. But China\u2019s growing military prowess and assertiveness combined with North Korea\u2019s improving missile and nuclear capabilities have prompted <\/span>discussions<\/span><\/a> among American and South Korean academics and policy circles about whether the alliance should expand contingency planning beyond the peninsula.<\/span><\/p>\n

Some experts <\/span>posit<\/span><\/a> that Washington cannot rely on Seoul to line up against Beijing. Besides China <\/span>representing<\/span><\/a> 25% of South Korea\u2019s export revenue in 2019, Yoon\u2019s oft-repeated desire for South Korea to become a “<\/span>global pivotal state<\/span><\/a>” inevitably means striking a balance between Washington and Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul also has to consider its dangerous neighborhood. In the event of a military conflict between the U.S. and China, the ROK has to contend with two nuclear-armed neighbors. So, Seoul is less likely to line up against Beijing per its national security interests. But the U.S. <\/span>shooting down<\/span><\/a> the Chinese surveillance balloon and three other <\/span>unidentified objects<\/span><\/a> has likely lessened Washington\u2019s patience for its ally\u2019s recalcitrance to join its containment of China.<\/span><\/p>\n

As U.S. <\/span>public polling<\/span><\/a> displays that only 15% of Americans view China favorably, Washington\u2019s adversarial foreign policy toward China will likely remain regardless of which party is in power.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The question remains of what Seoul will decide to do in the event of a U.S.-China conflict. So far, the alliance has not discussed that possibility.<\/span><\/p>\n

DIFFERENT EXPECTATIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

The U.S.-led campaign against the Muammar Gaddafi regime in Libya demonstrated that being in an alliance does not ensure an ally\u2019s participation, especially for operations outside the alliance\u2019s original scope. For example, <\/span>Germany<\/span><\/a> only supported humanitarian operations in Libya in 2011.<\/span><\/p>\n

During a Taiwan contingency, South Korea may opt to do the same. Notably, Yoon <\/span>avoided<\/span><\/a> making explicit commitments when asked whether South Korea would support a U.S.-led defense of Taiwan. Instead, he expressed hope that the U.S. would meet its treaty commitment to South Korea first while warning North Korea would likely take advantage of a conflict over Taiwan to carry out an act of aggression on the peninsula.<\/span><\/p>\n

Complicating matters, while Washington placed the Seventh Fleet in the Taiwan Strait during the Korean War to prevent a cross-strait conflict, it is questionable whether U.S. forces would be able to suppress China\u2019s military ambitions today as they did in the past considering China\u2019s <\/span>larger fleet<\/span><\/a> and advancing <\/span>missile capabilities<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unlike previous U.S. contingency collaboration efforts, a conflict with China will demand complex deliberate planning. And with the U.S.-ROK alliance, decision-makers will have to alter plans based on Seoul\u2019s decision: will it declare neutrality or approve of USFK and its installations being used for Taiwan\u2019s defense?<\/span><\/p>\n

Former <\/span>alliance administrations<\/span><\/a> agreed that the U.S. would seek South Korea\u2019s approval first if U.S. forces in the region were tasked with defending Taiwan. But as war games have demonstrated, <\/span>China\u2019s invasion of Taiwan<\/span><\/a> would be swift, making prior planning between Seoul and Washington necessary.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

ALLIANCE DISUNITY<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition to uncertainties about South Korea\u2019s actions if China invades or attacks Taiwan or North Korea attacks its territory, it\u2019s also unclear how it and Japan will work together with the U.S. in either scenario.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For instance, the U.S. has <\/span>agreed<\/span><\/a> to make its deployment of strategic nuclear assets to South Korea \u201cconstant\u201d and \u201croutine\u201d in response to North Korean military actions. Similarly, Washington and Tokyo recently agreed to increase the <\/span>U.S. military footprint in Japan<\/span><\/a>. But the U.S. will need to deploy more of its assets in the region if it also needs to help defend Taiwan.<\/span><\/p>\n

With <\/span>Biden pledging <\/span><\/a>to come to Taiwan\u2019s aid, it seems unlikely that the U.S. would not factor in strategic assets deployed to the Korean theater of operations for a possible conflict with China. To this point, <\/span>Biden warned Chinese leader Xi Jinping<\/span><\/a> that if Beijing failed to rein in North Korea, it would lead to a more significant U.S. military presence in the region.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While <\/span>Seoul, Washington and Tokyo<\/span><\/a> recently reaffirmed their joint commitment to cooperate on the North Korean threat and work toward its denuclearization, they again collectively could only state they discussed the threat China poses to the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition, it was notable that only the three nations\u2019 foreign ministers participated in the discussion, not its defense ministers. While mostly symbolic, the exclusion of the defense ministers hints at a lack of consensus in preparing for a possible conflict with China.<\/span><\/p>\n

The recent decision between Seoul and Tokyo to <\/span>normalize<\/span><\/a> the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) \u2014 a military intelligence-sharing pact \u2014 could signal a welcome change on that front.<\/span><\/p>\n

But Seoul will likely continue to refrain from joining military operational efforts toward a possible conflict with China for the foreseeable future. The immediate fear of economic retaliation, which Seoul has <\/span>already experienced<\/span><\/a>, plays a significant role in Seoul\u2019s decision-making.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The more difficult concern for the U.S. to address is the fear of U.S. abandonment. This impasse will likely cause frustration in the alliance as the U.S. will seek Seoul\u2019s collaboration and planning for a possible dual-front conflict in the region sooner rather than later.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The U.S.-ROK alliance has rebounded under presidents Joe Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol. But China\u2019s recent flying of a surveillance balloon into U.S. airspace could be the starting point of a divergence between Seoul and Washington. 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