{"id":2200358,"date":"2023-03-09T17:45:32","date_gmt":"2023-03-09T08:45:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200358"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:08:00","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:08:00","slug":"polling-mirage-yoon-suk-yeols-rising-approval-rates-may-not-be-what-they-seem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/polling-mirage-yoon-suk-yeols-rising-approval-rates-may-not-be-what-they-seem\/","title":{"rendered":"Polling mirage? Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s rising approval rates may not be what they seem"},"content":{"rendered":"

A new poll has found that South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s favorability hit an eight-month high in recent weeks, as the Yoon administration promotes a <\/span>controversial new deal<\/span><\/a> to resolve the country\u2019s wartime force labor dispute with Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

RealMeter polling<\/span><\/a> conducted before Seoul announced the new deal found that Yoon\u2019s approval rating hit 43%, up 6 percentage points from last month.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, results from <\/span>other<\/span><\/a> outlets<\/span><\/a> provide a different picture of Yoon\u2019s presidency: The National Barometer Survey (NBS) put his approval rate at 37%, and Gallup Korea at 36%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The gap between the polling results muddies the waters and could lead the administration to draw dramatically different conclusions about which policies to pursue going forward, depending on which polls they look at. But a closer examination of the polls\u2019 methodologies strongly suggests that some are more trustworthy than others.<\/span><\/p>\n

IMPROVING APPROVAL RATE<\/b><\/p>\n

The gap in the different results prompts two questions. First, which numbers are more reliable and accurately depict Yoon\u2019s standing with the public? Second, if RealMeter\u2019s results are accurate, what factors drive that improvement?<\/span><\/p>\n

The second question is easier to answer and thus makes for a better starting point. In short, if Yoon\u2019s approval rate really did increase over the past several weeks, there is no clear answer as to why. Political leaders\u2019 approval rates tend to be driven by various events that different people prioritize differently.<\/span><\/p>\n

That is not unusual when pollsters analyze polling data. Respondents consume news from different sources at varying levels of sophistication at different times. Singular events that drive the news cycle are comparatively rare.<\/span><\/p>\n

Therefore, analysts have to sift through various narratives and interpretations of the data, often working by means of elimination. That often means pollsters put in a lot of work to eventually conclude that they don\u2019t know why something has happened.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon\u2019s 43% approval in RealMeter\u2019s polling is the highest mark he has received since it hit 44% at the end of <\/span>June 2022<\/span><\/a>. It is up 6 percentage points from the most recent low of 37% in mid-February.<\/span><\/p>\n

The results showed Yoon made the most significant gains among voters in their 50s (+11 percentage points), those in their 20s (+9) and those in their 70s (+7). These gains run against a raft of negative news related to ongoing inflation and spikes in the costs of gas and electricity that are <\/span>likely to continue<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

During the time period in question, the most important domestic political story has been the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) leader Lee Jae-myung\u2019s <\/span>ongoing prosecutorial investigation<\/span><\/a>. He has been questioned by prosecutors over a <\/span>land development scandal<\/span><\/a> on multiple occasions and is now <\/span>on trial<\/span><\/a> for violating election law.<\/span><\/p>\n

The move to prosecute the country\u2019s most prominent opposition ahead of the 2024 National Assembly elections helps partially explain Yoon\u2019s gains among those in their 70s and 20s, who are among the weakest DP supporters. But it does not explain the gain among those in their 50s, who are among the strongest DP supporters.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The <\/span>other major domestic political story<\/span><\/a> relates to the Yoon administration\u2019s reversal of the Moon-era rule that restricted weekly working hours to 52 in favor of a more flexible 69-hour work week. Those in their 50s are approaching the country\u2019s mandatory retirement age and likely appreciate the ability to work more hours after retirement in a country with a <\/span>weak social safety net<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

As for younger Koreans, <\/span>one survey<\/span><\/a> suggests that they also favor the reversal, preferring the flexibility it provides.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a>, Facebook<\/a> (edited by Korea Pro)<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

POLLING METHODOLOGIES<\/b><\/p>\n

The gap in the different polling results is due to different polling methodologies. RealMeter polling uses an automated response system (ARS), where the respondent receives a robocall and is then prompted to key in their responses via the numeric keypad on their phone. On the other hand, NBS and Gallup Korea use computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI), where a human interviewer asks questions to respondents and inputs the answers into their terminals.<\/span><\/p>\n

The latter has been tried and tested over the past several decades and, while more expensive, has consistently provided reliable results. As Gallup Korea noted in a <\/span>detailed write-up<\/span><\/a>, ARS polling tends to attract \u2014 and thus overrepresent \u2014 respondents highly interested in politics. This is because the robocall surveys sound similar to spam calls, and those who are less interested in politics are more likely to hang up. These respondents tend to lean male, older and thus conservative.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In the leadup to the most recent presidential election, ARS polling consistently favored Yoon by 5 to 10 percentage points depending on the polling house. At the same time, both Gallup Korea and NBS showed a <\/span>nearly dead-even race<\/span><\/a> and were proven to be more accurate. It seems like this is now being repeated in RealMeter polling, painting a rosier picture of Yoon\u2019s approval rates than would otherwise be the case.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Handwringing over a 6 or 7 percentage-point difference between polls may seem like a quibble, but the recent deal with Japan brings the importance into sharp relief. The deal is already shaping up to be <\/span>unpopular<\/span><\/a> domestically and will likely cost the president political capital.<\/span><\/p>\n

How many points he will drop and how long that drop will be sustained is unknown. But 5 percentage points is probably the median estimate for CATI polls. That would suggest an adjusted approval rate of around 30% in Gallup Korea\u2019s polling.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That drop will likely not be equaled in RealMeter, where potential respondents are predisposed to be more favorable to the president, resulting in a smaller decline. If the drop is only 2 percentage points, that will imply a new approval rating in the neighborhood of the 40% in RealMeter polling.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is thus not unthinkable that a 10 percentage point gap could open between the two polls. This gap is significant because depending on which poll President Yoon or his advisers are looking at, they could reach vastly different conclusions about which policies they can pursue or manage.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new poll has found that South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s favorability hit an eight-month high in recent weeks, as the Yoon administration promotes a controversial new deal to resolve the country\u2019s wartime force labor dispute with Japan. RealMeter polling conducted before Seoul announced the new deal found that Yoon\u2019s approval rating hit 43%, up […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2200359,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[27,28],"class_list":["post-2200358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-domestic-politics","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nPolling mirage? 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