{"id":2200328,"date":"2023-03-06T20:07:43","date_gmt":"2023-03-06T11:07:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200328"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:08:03","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:08:03","slug":"south-korea-has-good-reason-to-reconsider-costs-of-providing-weapons-to-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/south-korea-has-good-reason-to-reconsider-costs-of-providing-weapons-to-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea has good reason to reconsider costs of providing weapons to Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"

One year into the conflict, Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine shows no sign of ending, and South Korea is coming under increased pressure \u2014 from not only the U.S. but also NATO and others \u2014 to supply weapons to Kyiv.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Yoon administration has followed the previous Moon administration\u2019s lead in its Ukraine policy. While Seoul condemned Russia, joined Western sanctions against Moscow and supplied humanitarian aid to Kyiv, it has drawn the line at sending lethal arms.<\/span><\/p>\n

ROK <\/span>law<\/span><\/a> forbids the government from exporting weapons to countries where they will be used for anything other than \u201cpeaceful purposes,\u201d unless such arms shipments receive National Assembly approval. But despite this law, resistance to supplying arms appears to be weakening as a <\/span>growing number of voices<\/span><\/a> in South Korea call for Seoul to aid Ukraine.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To date, fears about how Russia could retaliate against South Korea appear to be one of the main reasons why the Yoon administration has refrained from arming Kyiv. But some experts argue that these concerns have been overstated and that Moscow is unlikely to take substantive action to assist ROK rival North Korea or inflict economic pain on Seoul.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A BARK WORSE THAN ITS BITE<\/b><\/p>\n

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg\u2019s <\/span>two-day visit<\/span><\/a> to South Korea in January marked the beginning of the West\u2019s soft push to persuade Seoul to provide weapons to Ukraine. Instead of forcefully demanding South Korea supply weapons to the battered European country, Stoltenberg <\/span>said<\/span><\/a> it was a decision for Seoul to make.<\/span><\/p>\n

U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby echoed this when he said in a recent <\/span>press briefing<\/span><\/a> that whether to send weapons to Ukraine is South Korea\u2019s sovereign choice.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe want every nation to act in accordance with what they believe they can handle from their own national security perspective,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite such pleas, Seoul has resisted sending weapons to Kyiv because Russian leader Vladimir Putin <\/span>warned<\/span><\/a> that South Korea supplying weapons to Ukraine would destroy relations with Moscow.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But Joel Atkinson, a political science professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that Russia has limited options for retaliating to a South Korean decision to aid Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cRussia has a range of sophisticated weapons technology that, in theory, could improve the North\u2019s military capabilities, such as air-defense systems, radars, fighters and drones,\u201d Atkinson said. \u201cBut it seems unlikely that Russia would significantly increase its weapons transfers to North Korea at a time when it both desperately needs those weapons itself, and it is already an international pariah.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

There is also the fact that North Korea needs more ready cash to pay for Russian weapons. As the Russian economy remains weakened by Western sanctions, Moscow can ill afford to provide free or discounted arms to Pyongyang.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moscow is already helping Pyongyang to the extent that it can by using its veto power on the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) to <\/span>block<\/span><\/a> U.S.-led resolutions seeking to strengthen economic sanctions against North Korea. And in exchange, the DPRK has <\/span>expressed<\/span><\/a> support for Russia\u2019s annexation of Ukrainian territory. All this has happened independently of South Korea\u2019s actions.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

ROK Navy and Marines conduct a drill at Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province, Oct. 26, 2022 | Image: Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

HITTING WHERE IT HURTS<\/b><\/p>\n

One way Russia could retaliate against South Korea should it decide to arm Ukraine is by cutting off energy supplies. Moscow is the ROK\u2019s <\/span>fourth-largest<\/span><\/a> source of fossil fuels, accounting for about 9% of all such imports.<\/span><\/p>\n

Last month, President Yoon Suk-yeol <\/span>ordered<\/span><\/a> the government to freeze utility fees for the first half of the year as energy prices skyrocketed across the country. Utility fees set a new record high by soaring <\/span>28.4%<\/span><\/a> on-year in February.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon\u2019s <\/span>persistently low approval rating<\/span><\/a> rose to <\/span>42.9%<\/span><\/a> as voters perceived his recent move to freeze utility fees and self-portrayal as the country\u2019s <\/span>chief salesperson<\/span><\/a> as attempts to better handle the economy. Putin could drive those numbers down and make Yoon\u2019s life miserable by restricting sales of Russian energy to South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to a <\/span>Gallup poll<\/span><\/a> in June last year, 72% of South Koreans supported providing only humanitarian aid to Ukraine, while only 15% supported providing military assistance. A significant rise in energy prices due to the Yoon administration\u2019s decision to provide military aid to Ukraine despite such poll numbers would most likely lead to Yoon losing voters\u2019 support, which could prove fatal with parliamentary elections a year away.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, not everyone is convinced that is how things will play out.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rob York, the program director for regional affairs at Pacific Forum, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that while Putin could restrict energy exports to South Korea, such a move might only hasten the ROK\u2019s move away from Russian fuel \u2014 something Seoul\u2019s European and American partners would probably encourage.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cRussia\u2019s dependency on fuel exports probably makes [restricting energy exports] an undesirable move,\u201d York said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although Russia officially <\/span>designated<\/span><\/a> South Korea an \u201cunfriendly nation\u201d after Seoul joined international sanctions against Moscow, Russia will want to retain South Korea as a client when the war ends and must rebuild its economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

THE OTHER GIANT<\/b><\/p>\n

More than Russia, South Korea\u2019s unwillingness to aid Ukraine might have to do with Seoul\u2019s concerns about offending Beijing. The <\/span>Global Times<\/span><\/i> reported<\/span><\/a> that officials in Beijing were privately upset with Yoon\u2019s participation in the NATO summit in Madrid in June last year. They may see Seoul\u2019s provision of military aid to Ukraine as an escalation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf South Korea is going to avoid playing a more direct role in this conflict, it will probably be because they don’t want a confrontation with China,\u201d York said, as Beijing has a history of playing hardball with Seoul.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Even though China has repeatedly <\/span>claimed neutrality<\/span><\/a> in the war between Russia and Ukraine, \u201cChina does not want to see Russia fail or see a broad anti-Russia coalition emerge,\u201d York added.<\/span><\/p>\n

But even the threat of China\u2019s retaliation might not be as significant, as Beijing likely does not want to alienate the West and <\/span>retaliate<\/span><\/a> against Seoul as it did in 2016 over Seoul\u2019s deployment of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery. The U.S. and its allies might meet such a move with a coordinated push against China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Daniel Pinkston, a professor in international relations at Troy University, suggested that China might also not retaliate in support of Russia because authoritarian systems and leaders are more \u201ctransactional and opportunistic\u201d than democracies.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe U.S., Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc. are supporting Ukraine because Russia\u2019s invasion is a direct challenge to international law, the U.N. Charter and human rights,\u201d Pinkston said. \u201cThe democracies are committed to upholding those values.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In an <\/span>interview<\/span><\/a> with the <\/span>Hankook Ilbo<\/span><\/i> newspaper, Mikhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said negotiations are \u201cdefinitely underway\u201d for South Korea to provide arms to Ukraine.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul has yet to confirm whether it will do so, but as the war drags on and Ukraine\u2019s Western allies look to others to help support Kyiv, South Korea is almost certainly reconsidering the costs of providing military assistance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One year into the conflict, Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine shows no sign of ending, and South Korea is coming under increased pressure \u2014 from not only the U.S. but also NATO and others \u2014 to supply weapons to Kyiv.\u00a0 The Yoon administration has followed the previous Moon administration\u2019s lead in its Ukraine policy. While Seoul […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2200329,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,28],"class_list":["post-2200328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Korea has good reason to reconsider costs of providing weapons to Ukraine - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/south-korea-has-good-reason-to-reconsider-costs-of-providing-weapons-to-ukraine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Korea has good reason to reconsider costs of providing weapons to Ukraine - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"One year into the conflict, Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine shows no sign of ending, and South Korea is coming under increased pressure \u2014 from not only the U.S. but also NATO and others \u2014 to supply weapons to Kyiv.\u00a0 The Yoon administration has followed the previous Moon administration\u2019s lead in its Ukraine policy. 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