{"id":2200294,"date":"2023-03-01T18:20:35","date_gmt":"2023-03-01T09:20:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200294"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:09:35","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:09:35","slug":"unable-to-sway-detractors-yoon-suk-yeol-doubles-down-on-conservative-positions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/03\/unable-to-sway-detractors-yoon-suk-yeol-doubles-down-on-conservative-positions\/","title":{"rendered":"Unable to sway detractors, Yoon Suk-yeol doubles down on conservative positions"},"content":{"rendered":"
President Yoon Suk-yeol has never enjoyed high approval ratings, topping out at 53% not long after his inauguration. Due to a series of <\/span>unforced<\/span><\/a> errors<\/span><\/a>, Yoon\u2019s approval rate fell as low as <\/span>24%<\/span><\/a> in Aug. last year. Since then, he has regained some support, and his approval rate has been around <\/span>40%<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n However, he finds it difficult to raise that number much higher because of the way <\/span>age demographics<\/span><\/a> define political affiliations in the ROK. To counter this, Yoon will likely double down on policies that conservatives favor to shore up his base.<\/span><\/p>\n While he might be able to gain short-term benefits from this strategy, it risks deepening the ROK\u2019s political divide.<\/span><\/p>\n MORE THAN JUST A NUMBER<\/b><\/p>\n South Korean voters can be categorized into <\/span>three broad, somewhat oversimplified groups<\/span><\/a>: the young (35 and younger), the middle-aged (between 35 and 60) and the elderly (60 and above).<\/span><\/p>\n The conservatives\u2019 support base consists of elderly voters and young males. On the other hand, progressives\u2019 support base lies primarily among middle-aged voters and younger women. The South Koreans who identify as progressives are mainly in their <\/span>40s<\/span><\/a> and support the Democratic Party (DP).<\/span><\/p>\n The numbers favor the progressives, as middle-aged voters outnumber younger voters due to South Korea\u2019s low birthrates, which have declined for decades.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n In recent years, middle-aged voters have been staunch DP supporters, and President Yoon has been unable to convince these voters to support him or his conservative People Power Party (PPP). For instance, whereas polls indicated that younger men and elderly voters opposed the DP\u2019s motion to <\/span>impeach<\/span><\/a> interior minister <\/span>Lee Sang-min<\/span><\/a>, middle-aged voters largely supported the move.<\/span><\/p>\n Having come of age in the late 1990s and early 2000s, many of today\u2019s middle-aged voters witnessed the effects of Chun Doo-hwan\u2019s military dictatorship in their youth, and they see today\u2019s conservatives as the direct successor to that dictatorship. As a reaction to the dictatorship, many of them <\/span>voted for <\/span>Roh M<\/span>oo-hyun<\/span><\/a> \u2014 a liberal stalwart \u2014 for president. Later when Roh <\/span>took his own life<\/span><\/a>, many of those people who voted for him blamed the conservatives for his death.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n COURTING THE BASE<\/b><\/p>\n The Yoon administration <\/span>knows<\/span><\/a> it\u2019s unpopular with middle-aged and younger female voters and that gaining their support is nearly impossible. As such, Yoon appears to have decided to shift his focus to regain support from younger conservatives. Yoon has also lost support from those who voted for him, as polls indicate that only around <\/span>55-60%<\/span><\/a> of those voters now support him, but unlike support for Yoon among progressives and middle-aged voters, those numbers can improve.<\/span><\/p>\n Younger male voters have no memory of the military dictatorship of the 1980s, and many do not feel any affinity for the DP. Instead, they see progressive <\/span>real estate policies<\/span><\/a> pricing them out of the market. Further, many of them see promotions of gender equality in <\/span>heavily unequal South Korean society<\/span><\/a> as a form of discrimination against men, and they view the DP\u2019s courting of women as anathema to their interests.<\/span><\/p>\n Yoon and his PPP likely see young South Korean men\u2019s disenfranchisement with liberals as an opportunity, even if Yoon\u2019s <\/span>approval rating<\/span><\/a> among under-35s has dipped recently.<\/span><\/p>\n The administration has pursued economic policies that conservative and younger voters favor. For example, Yoon has staked out a staunchly <\/span>anti-union position<\/span><\/a> since November. Often referring to them as \u201cvested interests,\u201d Yoon has pledged to reform labor unions and recently <\/span>instructed<\/span><\/a> the labor minister to report back to him on labor unions\u2019 accounting practices.<\/span><\/p>\n Attacks on unions have always been popular with conservatives, but it is especially popular with younger male conservatives, who often see unions and their policies as <\/span>impediments<\/span><\/a> to their search for jobs.<\/span><\/p>\n The justice ministry\u2019s choice to <\/span>prosecute<\/span><\/a> DP leader Lee Jae-myung and seek his arrest has also <\/span>gained<\/span><\/a> support from conservative voters who dislike Lee.<\/span><\/p>\n Yoon\u2019s foreign policy reflects this strategy. In recent months, his administration has become <\/span>more assertive<\/span><\/a> with Beijing and hawkish toward North Korea. And he has chosen to complement his assertiveness toward Beijing and Pyongyang with closer relations with Washington and Tokyo.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n GOING FORWARD<\/b><\/p>\n Yoon will try to win some support from progressives by attending symbolic events meaningful to the opposition, including the May 18 Gwangju Uprising <\/span>commemoration<\/span><\/a> and an <\/span>annual ceremony<\/span><\/a> on the anniversary of President Roh Moo-hyun\u2019s death. Such symbolic gestures will have little effect, however.<\/span><\/p>\n As a result, Yoon will focus less on building national consensus and instead redirect his energy into winning more support from his base. While such an approach makes sense politically, it will further accelerate the country\u2019s internal divisions.<\/span><\/p>\n Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n